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4-hr CRUDE OIL: Retesting $71.50, before the Up Trend ExtendsOver the past month, oil prices have surged by $8, marking an impressive 15% return in less than 20 business days. The commodity is clearly in an upward trend, with buyers maintaining strong control. This bullish momentum is further validated by two Golden Cross patterns, a classic buy signal. However, since Friday, a decline in buying volume suggests potential conditions for a correction. Early buyers might be taking profits, increasing supply and potentially triggering a broader pullback. We anticipate the price may correct to $71.50, a swing high from mid-December, which coincides with the crucial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If this support holds, the broader uptrend could resume. Buyers looking for a better risk-to-reward ratio might wait for this correction before entering the market.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Trendsharks
Oil Market Outlook for 2025: Balancing Supply and DemandThe oil market in 2025 faces a challenging equilibrium between supply and demand, heavily influenced by OPEC+ strategies. Building on the success of their 2024 production cuts, OPEC+ is expected to continue regulating output to maintain market stability. If no significant economic or geopolitical disruptions occur, oil prices are projected to remain within the $70–80 per barrel range, a level that benefits key market players. However, slower economic growth in China poses a potential downside risk to global demand. China's current policies, including procuring discounted oil from Iran and Russia, help mitigate domestic economic pressures and limit their impact on global prices. In the United States, the long-term feasibility of achieving production targets set by the Trump administration appears realistic. With infrastructure already supporting output at 14.5 million barrels per day, further expansion will require significant investment in pipelines and other facilities. Increased U.S. production is likely to add downward pressure on oil prices, but it’s unlikely to push them below $60 per barrel. Strategic interests, including budgetary allocations for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, position the $60–65 range as a critical floor. A price range of $70–75 per barrel is deemed optimal for the U.S., enabling economic growth and bolstering tax revenues to support the budget. This dynamic interplay of global strategies and regional policies will shape the oil market's trajectory, demanding vigilance from stakeholders to navigate the evolving landscape. TVC:USOIL SSE:000300
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by igorisaev
1
Continued bearishness in crude oil pricesOn December 17, 2024, oil prices showed a slight stabilization following the drop in U.S. crude inventories and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut. However, gains were limited by expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of cuts in the coming months. Brent crude oil futures rose 20 cents, closing at $73.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 50 cents, reaching $70.58. Despite these increases, gains moderated after market close. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a drop in crude oil and distillate inventories, while gasoline inventories increased in the week ending December 13. In addition, total product supply, a key indicator of demand, grew to 20.8 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 662,000 barrels from the previous week. Despite the partial optimism around demand, crude oil prices fell briefly following the Fed's announcement to cut interest rates, although the pace of these cuts is expected to slow. The Fed projects only two additional rate cuts through the end of 2025, which could boost oil demand, but also dampen near-term expectations. On technical analysis, crude oil continues to lose value, with the price looking for the $68 area since the start of the European session. The POC mid-zone is around $70.20, and the RSI is highly oversold at 30%. The crossover of the 200-average over the 100-average reinforces the prospect of a bearish continuation, as anticipated in previous weeks. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
Crude Oil: Watch for Key Support Levels Next WeekRecent Performance: Crude oil has been navigating a downtrend influenced by geopolitical tensions, oversupply issues, and weak demand signals. As of late, concerns about peaking U.S. shale production have introduced volatility, with prices currently facing resistance around the $68 mark and critical support established at approximately $67. - Key Insights: For those considering trading crude oil, paying close attention to the established support ($66.63) and resistance levels ($68.14) will be key for short-term strategies. Additionally, the contrasting dynamics of rising demand in India against softer demand in China may present unique trading opportunities. The current bearish sentiment creates potential for a market rebound if conditions shift favorably. - Expert Analysis: Analysts express caution regarding the continued bearish commercial net positions. However, a pivot in market conditions could lead to increased prices if the assumption about U.S. shale production is validated. The need to monitor geopolitical developments remains paramount as these could dramatically sway market psychology and pricing. - Price Targets: Next week, for traders looking at potential long positions, ideal target levels appear to be: T1: $69.7, T2: $70.5. It is essential that stop levels are adhered to, with: S1: $66.63, S2: $66.05. If considering short positions, one needs to be cautious as the thresholds are close at play. - News Impact: The global landscape remains heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, compounded by market news surrounding the differing recovery rates between the Indian and Chinese economies. Such dynamics will likely affect both short and long-term investment strategies within the crude oil sector. Investors should remain vigilant of these developments to better navigate their trading decisions in the upcoming week.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
1
30-mins OIL: Death Cross Indicates Downward Momentum If you followed us for some time now, you probably notice that our trading methods heavily rely on MA crosses and Fibonacci. In this particular case, we registered a Death Cross, where a short term MA breaks below a longer term MA. This is a classic sell signal and indeed, after the signal was triggered, short sellers saw a $700 per lot running profit. Our preference is for Oil to carry on dropping down, because investors are now shifting capital to tech stocks and crypto. First however, and in order to secure better risk to reward, short sellers might want to wait for a pullback. Cheap oil price might attract short term buyers, so its not impossible for the price to retest the area around $68.80. This aligns with the critical 38% Fib retracement and if this resistance area holds, further drops seem logical.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
Oil: New Global Tulip Crisis?In recent months, oil prices have fallen sharply, putting Brent and WTI below $70 per barrel, far from the highs reached in early 2024. For consumers, this drop may seem like good news, but for major producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, it represents a significant economic challenge and has set off alarm bells in international markets. This phenomenon is not only a reflection of cyclical dynamics, but also of profound structural changes in the global energy landscape. With Brent and WTI falling to lows not seen in months, hydrocarbon-dependent economies face an uncertain outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, account for more than 40% of the world's crude oil production and more than 60% of global exports. A trillion dollar market The crude oil market generates annual revenues in excess of $2 trillion, a large portion of which is captured by the major OPEC+ producers. For example: - Saudi Arabia , the group's leader, relies on oil to generate approximately $326 billion a year, accounting for more than 70% of its export revenues. - Russia , the largest non-OPEC ally, earns about $120 billion annually in crude exports alone. - Iraq , OPEC's second largest producer, generates around $90 billion annually, which constitutes more than 90% of its fiscal revenues. - The United Arab Emirate s, with its sophisticated export infrastructure, contributes approximately $80 billion to the global market. Other members such as Kuwait, Nigeria and Venezuela are also critically dependent on oil revenues, which are critical to financing their economies. Factors behind the drop in oil prices 1. Oversupply: The price war between major producers, coupled with the U.S. shale oil boom, has led to oversupply. In 2023, the US reached a record production of 13 million barrels per day, increasing global competition and putting downward pressure on prices. 2. Slowdown in demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand growth in 2024 will be just 900,000 barrels per day, a significant drop from 2023. This decline is largely due to the economic weakening of China, the largest importer of crude oil, and the transition to more energy-efficient economies. 3. Technological innovations and energy transition: The rise of renewable energies and the adoption of technologies such as electric vehicles are reducing dependence on fossil fuels, structurally transforming global energy demand. Global implications • Oil-dependent economies: Countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia face fiscal deficits and the need for economic adjustments, which could generate social and political instability. • Impact on inflation: Although low oil prices reduce costs, they also contribute to global disinflation, posing risks of deflation in economies such as the Eurozone. • Slowed energy transition: Low oil prices could discourage investments in clean technologies, affecting global sustainability goals. • The impact of the downturn: Falling oil prices could cost these countries tens of billions of dollars in revenues if the downward trend persists. It also complicates efforts to balance national budgets that already face economic challenges. With current prices in retreat, OPEC+ will need to decide whether to implement further production cuts to stabilize markets or let market forces continue to adjust naturally. A new energy paradigm The current oil crisis marks a turning point in the global energy market. As the OPEC oil giants face the dilemma of whether to cut production to support prices in preparation for a possible slowdown in global demand or whether to maintain their market share against competitors such as the US, investors and analysts will be watching the upcoming OPEC+ meetings to assess the next steps. This context could suggest a shift towards a less oil-dependent economy, with profound implications for economic growth and environmental sustainability. This critical moment will define not only the price of oil, but also the future of economies highly dependent on this resource. The challenge now lies in balancing these factors to build a more resilient and equitable energy future, especially in regions such as Europe, which is very focused on its Green Deal, or a China that, despite continuing to use fuel, is determined to a very “electrified” paradigm both in transportation and at the energy level in general. The Tulip Crisis The collapse of the oil market has certain parallels with the 17th century tulip crisis in Holland, especially in the excessive dependence on a single resource and the consequences of speculation. In both cases, oversupply and falling demand triggered collapses that severely affected the economies involved. However, while tulips represented a fleeting luxury, oil has a critical and global impact, where geopolitical decisions and energy transition play a central role in the current dynamics. The tulip crisis marked the decline of a market that had dominated for some time, leading to a shift in the Netherlands' economic priorities. If oil prices continue to fall or the energy transition accelerates the shift away from fossil fuels, producing countries could face a similar structural change, being forced to diversify their economies. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
OIL Possible BUYThe market is currently testing the current Weekly area. Based on Daily TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal chart pattern. We could see Buyers coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by WiLLProsperForex
30-mins Crude Oil: Sellers Remain in Control Oil remains in a strong downtrend, confirmed by the Death Cross, a classic sell signal. This pattern occurs when a short-term moving average (MA) crosses below a long-term MA, signaling accelerating bearish momentum. Earlier this week, buying activity led to a minor pullback, but it failed to sustain recovery. Prices hit resistance at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level and resumed their decline. A triple bottom chart pattern is forming, often a precursor to further downside. For improved risk-reward, short sellers could wait for a retest of $68.90, aligning with the 23% Fibonacci level, before targeting potential drops below $67.90.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
4-hr Oil: Oil Buyers Driving The Price Higher Oil prices have climbed by over $3 per barrel since last week, driven by renewed buyer interest following a period of oversold conditions. This rally reflects a growing confidence among market participants as the asset regains upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment is the imminent formation of a Golden Cross—a widely recognized technical buy signal—where the 20-day moving average is on the verge of crossing above the 60-day moving average. This pattern suggests that there could be significant additional upside potential for crude oil in the near term. However, before this upward trajectory solidifies, the market may experience a short-term correction. A potential retracement could see prices testing the $68.20 level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move. This level is a key area of technical support and could offer a strategic entry point for buyers. By waiting for a dip to this level, traders could achieve a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio, positioning themselves for gains as the market resumes its ascent.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Trendsharks
30-mins: Oil Broke below Support Over the past couple of weeks, investors have been actively shorting oil, shifting their capital towards Bitcoin and leading tech stocks from the US100 (Nasdaq 100). This capital reallocation has put significant downward pressure on oil prices, which initially found temporary support around the $68 mark. However, this support level failed to hold, triggering a sharp and rapid decline as bearish momentum accelerated. A notable technical signal has emerged in the form of a "Death Cross," where the 20-period moving average (MA) crossed below the 60-period MA. This crossover is a strong bearish indicator, suggesting that the current downtrend may persist, with sellers firmly in control. Currently, immediate resistance is found at the $67.20 level, corresponding to the 23% Fibonacci retracement, but the downward bias remains strong. Despite this, the lower price levels might attract short-term buyers looking for value opportunities. However, a more conservative selling point for traders eyeing the ongoing downward momentum would be at the $67.88 level, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level offers a better risk-reward entry for short sellers, allowing them to participate in the trend while managing potential pullbacks.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
LCRUDE: Marco Rubio and the New Oil SanctionsPresident-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State anticipates a tougher foreign policy toward Iran and Venezuela, with potentially significant impacts on the global oil market. Rubio, known for his tough stance on international policy issues, could strengthen existing sanctions, seeking to limit crude oil exports from these countries. However, the risks of retaliation by China and the impact on the international financial system could moderate these initiatives. Iran: A More Restrictive Approach During Trump's first term, sanctions drove Iranian oil exports to historic lows. Under Biden, these have increased due to laxer enforcement and growing demand from China, the main buyer of Iranian crude. Rubio could intensify pressure on Iranian exports, especially those destined for the Chinese market, using tools such as the SHIP Act of 2024, which penalizes ports and refineries that process Iranian oil in violation of U.S. sanctions. Venezuela: Continued Confrontation Rubio's arrival at the State Department also indicates little chance of improving U.S.-Venezuela relations. His critical stance toward President Nicolás Maduro reinforces the likelihood of maintaining and even tightening sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector. This approach aligns with a confrontational policy aimed at limiting the South American country's economic options. Geopolitical Challenges: The Role of China A tightening of sanctions could generate tensions with China, which has increased its dependence on Iranian crude. As a major buyer, China could respond by reducing the use of the dollar in oil transactions, weakening its global primacy and complicating U.S. foreign policy objectives. LCRUDE Technical Analysis The value of crude oil reached several downward ceilings, the first in March 2017, the second in June 2022, the third in September 2023, and the last April 2024. From that point on the trend on crude has been downward regardless. Focusing the chart on the last period from September to this part, crude oil has had several attempts without much strength to return to the Checkpoint value around $78.00 in October. The crossover of averages indicates a bearish continuation with the 50-average below the 100 and 200. So this only presents a confirmation to the shoulder head shoulder we have before us and could generate the price to test the minimum resistance at $64.72, and if the market does not support a price recovery the price of oil could continue to depreciate irretrievably. The strategy of lowering crude oil prices in general seems more of a political move than a healthy market correction. The volume average appears to be slightly below 126k. The RSI is oversold at 41.46% so this could be a further confirmation of the bearish continuation. Looking at the chart the resistance zone tested for the third time today is at $66.77 if the low is reached as we say, we could see a stronger price drop. Final Reflection The Trump administration, with Rubio at the helm of diplomacy, faces the challenge of balancing its strategic objectives with the economic and geopolitical risks of a more aggressive sanctions policy. This approach will set the tone for international relations in a context where the energy market and global dynamics are more interconnected than ever. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
Oil Price Forecast 2024-2030: Will Oil Prices Fall in 2025?Since reaching multi-year highs in Q1 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, oil prices have gradually retreated. Slowing economic growth, with looming recession due to central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes to tame decades-high inflation, has capped oil prices. In 2023, crude oil prices dropped by more than 10%, essentially erasing their previous gains. As 2024 progressed, oil prices faced another year of volatility. Uncertainty over when the US Fed would initiate its rate-cutting cycle pressured oil prices and other commodities in the first nine months of this year, pushing them below $80 per barrel (bbl). In the first week of October, oil briefly hit $80 as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, raising concerns about supply disruptions. However, the gain was just a blip, and oil tumbled back down to below $80. So, what’s in store for oil prices for the remainder of 2024 and beyond in 2025 and 2030? Let’s dive into our oil price forecast. 2024 Brent: $72.118 to $81 WTI: $$68.672 to $80 OPEC+ output policy Wars: Hamas-Israel, Russia-Ukraine Global economic slowdown The Fed’s rate cut 2025 Brent: $70 to $78 WTI: $65 to $75 Fed continues the rate-cutting cycle OPEC+ supply returns to market Higher output from non-OPEC countries Demand recovery Global economic uncertainty 2026-2030 Brent: $65 to $77 (2026 to 2028) WTI: $60 (2026-2027) General sentiment: neutral to bearish Wider adoption of EV, clean energy De-dollarization OPEC+ role to regulate supply Decreasing demand among developed nations Increasing demand from emerging nations
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by igorisaev
1
Oil's Well That Ends Well: Riding the Wave "OIL"Oil's technical picture is looking increasingly bullish. A recent bounce off a key support level has formed a compelling inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on lower timeframes. This classic reversal signal, combined with a series of higher highs in recent weeks, points to a strong uptrend in progress. According to my Elliott Wave analysis, we are currently in the impulsive phase, heading towards the 5th wave target of $75.00. This confluence of technical indicators suggests that oil is poised for further gains.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Tshepo_mak