LCRUDE trade ideas
Revolutionizing Markets:Gold-Oil Correlate,Gas on a Tightrope
Today we delve into the analysis of three key assets: Gold (GOLD), West Texas oil (LCrude) and gas futures (NGasMar24). At first glance, it may appear that these assets are unrelated, however, since 2020, Gold and Oil have experienced a de-correlated relationship. Gold, despite reaching highs in December, has experienced a de-escalation within a bullish channel, with notable bounces, such as yesterday's bounce to the $2,014.76 area. This suggests price consolidation in this area and a possible upward direction towards $2,087 and possibly $2,139.
On the other hand, crude oil showed a rebound on January 26, further strengthening its uptrend. It is expected to return to the $75 levels and, depending on the news, could reach $79.60. In contrast, Gas has maintained a sideways trend, hovering between $3.747 and $2.055 in recent weeks. In summary, we observe a definite correlation between Gold and Oil, which had faded in 2020 but has recently re-emerged the Gold Gold Gold/Black Gold pair. Gas, on the other hand, has not followed the line of its jet cousin, and shows signs of price exhaustion and a possible bearish continuation decline, generating a plunge.
According to the TV candlestick measurement rule, crude oil's performance since January 29 has been about -10.5%, while gas has experienced about -14%, and Gold a modest 0.60%. The Volume Profile Visible Range Indicator notes that the current Most Traded Price or POC is $72.70 for Lcrude, $2.094 for gas and $2029.92 for Gold, highlighting the stability of Gold in this upward move compared to crude. In relation to the RSI divergence, all three assets show a neutral position, with a possible sideways for crude oil and gold. Gas appears undervalued currently given market conditions. Despite technical analysis is showing sell trend, if the right conditions are given a potential opportunity for buyers may arise.
Although for that it is important to see the right oversold signals on the RSI, which at this time, have not yet occurred in any of the three assets.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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OIL : A BULLISH POTENTIAL FOR THE BLACK GOLD?- The market has been trading inside a bearish wedge since the end of September 2023, registering lower highs and lows. The medium-term trend is therefore bearish.
- In the shorter term, prices have registered a sharp rebound since their impact on their annual low around $68. This rebound led the market the upper limit of its wedge, below the 23.6% Fibonacci, above the two exponential moving averages at 21 and 34 periods.
The RSI indicator has shown a clearing of its bearish trendline, a phenomenon that generally occurs in ahead of the market.
- Although still in a downward trend, technical indicators tend to show that the buying appetite for black gold is only just beginning. A clearing of $74.15 (23.6% Fibonacci) would therefore open the way to a resumption of the bullish trend towards $78.00, $81.00 and even higher by extension.
In the very short term, a pull-back towards the last support above $72.17 also remains a possibility. If this level does not hold, the entire bullish scenario previously mentioned could well be invalidated.
