Long AVB @201.91 or lower-Oversold and trending higherI didn't do this trade yet and I may or may not. Its track record is good, just the returns are more modest than I'd like so if I can find something juicer but comparably high probability of success, I will do that instead. Also, high priced stocks make it harder to keep the position manageable as a % of trading capital.
More on that later. However, the strong recent uptrend it's in makes this one somewhat compelling, so I'm posting it.
The method is the same as most of my trades - I buy it and add to the position as long as it is oversold and exit each lot when it becomes both overbought and profitable.
Last 12 months results for AVB with this method:
26-0-1 (one of the "wins" is still open bc it isn't overbought, and the 1 is a position hypothetically opened with this trade so it's neither up nor down yet, though I included it as a 0% return trade in the average and median calculations.
The average return on all 27 trades is 2.6% and the median is 2.6% as well. Only 2 trades netted less than 1% but none made over 5%. This is a boring trade, and boring is fine if it's profitable.
The total 12 month profit of all 27 trades is .69x lot size. So if I traded say $1000 in each lot (I always allocate equal dollar amounts to each lot purchased), at the end of the 12 months you'd have $690 profit. Note: I don't use $1000 per lot, it just illustrates the math easier.
One word of caution - as "boring" and relatively safe as this trade setup is with this ticker, this stock trends. At the beginning of the 12 month period it was in a downtrend, and the very first signal buy would have needed to be held almost 10 months to become profitable and at one time it held 10 lots at once while waiting for them to become profitable. The original lot was down 13% or so at its bottom and the entire 10 lot position was down around 6% at its lowest. The typical holding period for each lot was around 3-4 weeks, but quite a few were less than 2 weeks.
This lengthier holding period can be problematic if lot sizes are too large. Even at each lot being .5% of trading capital that would have made the total holdings at its highest, 5% of all trading capital and that's a little risky. Now AVB isn't volatile and paid 1.60-1.70 per share per quarter in dividends while waiting for that 10 month trade to work itself out (which isn't factored into the return results, btw), so that makes it a little less risky.
It's a lesson, though, that this method can tie up capital for a while and not to trade high priced stocks if you are under-capitalized. I personally don't like any position to be more than 3% of my trading capital, especially if it's a high volatility stock. The trades usually work themselves out, but it's more psychologically challenging to maintain discipline when too much capital is at risk. Diversification is safer, too.
As always, these trades aren't investment advice. They are edu-tainment. Always do your own research and due diligence. If I trade this one for real, I'll post updates.
0HJO trade ideas
$AVB - consolidating at $200 for awhileRumor is REITS gonna pop, it what does that mean?
AVB is a slow mover. But, technical wise, it’s in the bottom regression channel in a bullish formation. Fib levels show support, but indicators show wave down.
200 important level here. Needs to stay above as it consolidated in the region
Avalonbay Communities (AVB) reversal incoming!Trade plan:
Buy long - $220-$225
Stop loss - $214
Target - $240 resistance
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) -
For the six months ended 30 June 2021, AvalonBay Communities Inc revenues decreased 6% to $1.11B. Net income applicable to common stockholders increased 74% to $588.9M. Revenues reflect NAREIT FFO - Per Share - Diluted - Total decrease of 13% to $1.96. Net income reflects Development/Redevelopment segment income increase from$7.1M to $20M, Other Stablized segment income increase of 11% to $36M.
Wells Fargo analyst Tammi Fique maintains AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $225 to $242.
According to 10 analyst offering 12-month price targets in the last 3 months, AvalonBay Communities has an average price target of $236.1 with a high of $285.00 and a low of $218.00.
AVB has been on a decline for the past month but has been in trending up for approximately 1 year.
It has reached support at $220
Resistance is at $240
Buyers at all time low since April '20 but recently demonstrated buyers stepping up
AVBSystem T Performances: Annual Compound Profit 40%, Win Rate 55%, Risk/Reward Ratio 1:2, 20 Years of Backtesting Data, Over 100 Markets.
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Hi Traders,
I'd like to introduce the System T, a computerized trading system that analyzed and backtested the 20 years history data of over 100 markets.
This post is my sharing of how I think about systematic trading and the signals generated by the System T.
(This is my opinion only, NOT the financial advice.)
I think that for the system to open a trade and manage risk, it only needs a buy signal & a stop-loss signal clearly on the chart.
Once the system finds a good trend, it will ride it as long as possible. The stop-loss will be adjusted accordingly to the new price movement.
(Remember to follow this trade idea and follow my profile to get updates about the stop-loss adjustment and sell signal based on the latest price and market conditions daily.)
System T performances above will give you an idea of how it performs in the last 20 years.
Notice that this result was achieved only if I strictly followed the rule: "Only and Always Buy & Sell based on the System Signals".
Don't sell when there is no sell signal as we all want to follow the good trends til the end like everything in life does. \(^-^)/
Also, my system is extremely diversified through over 100 markets so that it only risks less than -1% of the total capital per trade.
Thank you and good luck!
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AVB showing amazing proportions down to long term fairest valueThe vol profiles for AVB are quite amazing. Long term value at 133 is likely to keep attracting price.
The POC at 161 has not built enough volume yet to escape the higher value YET. But it looks nice and wide and looks like it will.
So I would say that the higher POC at 172 is not part of the leg down, which is why I'm making the symmetry projection down from the high at 189.
In any case, I think 133.28 is a fantastic place to look for long term buyers in AVB to step back in and push price higher.
The proportions are all there and value looks to be developing nicely long term.