0HSU trade ideas
Camping World BreakoutsThe stock has consolidated and is now breaking out of a cup/handle formation. Underlying fundamentals are strong... I am in this industry so I understand the strength that is occurring with this generational shift towards more recreational expenditures. Company will also begin to sell pontoon boats later in the year and is consolidating the RV dealer network to have a national footprint. Largest retailer of RV's and building out super centers to take advantage of the continue spend on outdoor recreation. Even valuing it at 1x sales makes it double. Hard to get Wall Street excited about hillbilly things but with the CEO having his own CNBC show perhaps that will help as the growth continues and people realize what's taking place within the industry.
CWHCrazy move today. Hope someone caught some of it because I completely missed it. Still has more in it. I'm not going to chase but will buy a pullback if we get one.
CWH: A Winning Value/Growth Play w/ improving marginsCWH has been a favorite pick of mine since this summer. The stock has been trading in a pretty tight range as of late and showed a strong support level at $32 during the recent pullback in high multiple names (which it is not). I absolutely love this entry here in the mid-30s and would be targeting mid-40s as an exit level for a trade. This is a long-term investment for me, but I will trim it at $45. I see the stock continuing momentum over the next few weeks and breaking into the 40s behind strong momentum.
Here is my thesis:
1- A+ ceo. He has also increased his position from 257,504 shares to 544,221 (+113%). From $10 to $32 (as of September 2019, has bought more since)
2- expanding margins- They are creating an RV-valuator + AirBnB for RVs through their “Good Sam” brand.
3- Camping/outdoors has experienced growth like never before because Covid
4- all demographics buy RVs ( average monthly payment for RV $300 a month/ average purchase price of RV only $30K
5- Breaking out from downward resistance trendline.
CWH - Cup w/Handle?I've been watching this one for awhile now. I'll wait on an entry to confirm it's going to keep moving up off this Cup with Handle pattern. On a fundamental basis, Camping World beat earnings expectations and still sold off. But buying volume is coming in today. This may be a good one for your watch list. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
Earnings last week:
Camping World Holdings (CWH) reported 4th Quarter December 2020 earnings of $0.48 per share on revenue of $1.1 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.34 per share on revenue of $1.1 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.36 per share. Revenue grew 17.5% on a year-over-year basis.
CWH: Major Insider Buying along with Expanding Margins = WinnerCWH has been one of the big winners of COVID19, as families look to spend more time outdoors while being socially distant. Marcus Lemonis, the CEO, has increased his position by over 100% through purchasing over 250K shares. The stock has recently been on a down trend since it's high of 42. It has recently broken that downward resistance line, and I believe a move to the 40s is in store.
Here are my 5 reasons for the long term hold.
1- A+ ceo. He has also increased his position from 257,504 shares to 544,221 (+113%). From $10 to $32
2- expanding margins- They are creating an RV-valuator + AirBnB for RVs through their “Good Sam” brand.
3- Camping/outdoors has experienced growth like never before because Covid
4- all demographics buy RVs ( average monthly payment for RV $300 a month/ average purchase price of RV only $30K
5- Breaking out from downward resistance trendline.
$CWH DailyInverse h&s setting up
Bullish MACD cross about to happen
Looking for a break above $32.30 area with volume for confirmation
CWH long potential.CWH breaking out of down-sloping consolidation after a nice bull run. Showing hidden bullish divergence and classic bullish divergence on both MACD and RSI on both 4HR and daily. Looks like a nice set up. Primary and secondary measured moves painted.
Not financial advice.
#CWH Market drops makes new chances. Reflect,fix and keep going.Nice falling wedge on #CWH .I'll update it later once it starts the move.
Let's Go Camping and Do the Party!COVID Part Deux season is upon us.
People still want to travel. Will airlines and cruises come back in to favor this time or will they still face headwinds through this season until next summer? TSA data suggests some decent increase in traffic, but still a bit meh. Completely expected. Seems difficult to really know sentiment in the short term as some indications of lockdown are reemerging, but along with that is some rejection of the population who are tired of the continued pressure from above.
So what to do?
Do you like the outdoors? I do! What’s not to like? It’s a cheap way to vacation, it keeps you away from those scary people who might have a virus. Hell, you can sit around the campfire with them enjoy the company, from a distance. Then talk smack about them later probably having the virus from the comfort of your own camper.
Look at the RV explosion that happened post 9/11 when everyone was afraid of flying.
Repeat performance? I think so!
Check into the company. Talk about strength in concept and numbers! Do your homework.
Swing Trade Idea:
Entry 29.50
S/L 27.85
3/1 Risk/Reward = 34.45
Higher Risk/Reward would be a scale in entry (my preference) at current market 30.16 ah traded price, 29.82, 29.50
T1 – 36.54
T2 – 41.46
T3 – 47.25 (0.618 fib ext based on COVID low and bull flag high/low)
Longer-term targets based on pitchfork and fib ext listed below.
*** Yellow paths are artists conception.
If this thesis and path plays out the rejection from 22.60 (200ma) on 11/09/20 may have been the bottom of the cup for a future Cup and Handle and/or the head of a large Inverse Head and Shoulders. Either way, in that case, the 0.618 fib target is just the beginning. Following the pitchfork out we could possibly see 73.08 (1.272 fib ext) or even 86.74 (1.618 fib ext) trade in the future.
This one is a longer term swing for me.
Camping World Flag Brakeout (Swing/ Position Trade)NYSE:CWH
Camping World brakes out of a 3 month falg pattern supported by an engulfing pattern at 0.5 FIB
CMF and MACD are about to turn positive indicating the money flow into the stock with an strengthening tertiary trend.
Primary trend is stable upward indicated by upward SMA 200 and positive testing of 0.5 FIB by an engulfing pattern
CRV = 6.88 / Stop Loss at 0.383 FIB / Take Profit at 1.23 FIB
CWH SHORT attempt Good Risk:RewardThis short might not work, but the risk/reward is worth it. Currently sitting at around 1:4. I try to only take good R:R trades and this fits the bill.
