CLF: Contrarian OutlookCLF is a buy in my opinion but the price must close above the .786 fib retracement box I have placed in on the chart for a long position to be considered. Noted for a lagging share price to the industry, yet considered a great company with potential. To those trading the steel market, fundamentally the opinion is definitely swaying towards bullish for 2018.
--US housing starts rose 3.3% to a SAAR of 1.297 million units (November) and The Architectural Billing Index rose to 55, both of which are good signs for an increase in the demand and spending on steel. Coupled with the future infrastructure projects proposed by trump signs are looking good.
--Toyota/Mazda plant has just been approved in Alabama, estimating 300,000 vehicles per year starting in 2021.
--Chinese Steel exports have fallen for over 15 consecutive months.
---CLF announced a new HBI plant in Ohio w/ a capacity of 1.6+million tons a year.
For a safe position, i am looking for price to close above the .786 fib as stated above, this would reject the potential pattern i have drawn on the chart. The boxes are calculating +/-2 % variance of the Fibonacci ratios. If we do not see a close above, a daily doji and a bounce of the .786 could be signs for a lower share price. In that case look to enter around 5.70 which seems to be a good support, or look for a completion of the ABCD pattern.
