0I47 trade ideas
High spin wave DOJIAfter reporting a better than expected earning, price of Costco accelerate almost touching the channel top again.
One weekly chart, it finished as a high spin wave, essentially means that bulls & bears are equally puzzle where the price will go.
Immediately, the price might want to break the long term channel top (green), any false breakout that is rejected at the high will be my anticipated downtrend channel complete. Right now, the downtrend channel bottom seems to have found its direction.
I am waiting for the price to at least breakout high to initiate my short puts.
P.S. MACD show a weak sign of bearishness
Happy Mother's Day - A Look At Retail StocksHappy Mothers Day!! To all of you who give birth to our children, you deserve so much more than just one day a year...
Now don't take this wrong but when I think of the women in my life they all have one thing in common - Shopping! In the best way possible, they all love to shop or have accepted the shopping "chore" as I refer to it. Shopping is a HUGE chore in my opinion. Not one that I would like to take on as many women have.
Many teach the "invest in what you know & understand" lesson. Even if you are not the one out there shopping, you know where the important women in your life shop. Places like Costco, Macy's, Target, TJ Max, Ross, Kohls, Lulu Lemon, etc. Can I just say I LOVE yoga pants! Oops. Sorry. That was off topic... If women really like going there to shop, you may be looking at a good investment.
Pull up the charts for the stores I have listed above and any other store that you know is a frequent destination for the women in your life. My guess is you will find some good investing opportunities.
You are looking at a WEEKLY chart of Costco (Cost). Back in 2008 & 2009 the stock was in a downtrend. But once there was a weekly close above the downtrend line back in early 2009, the stock never looked back. You could have entered a long position at around $45 per share six years ago. On average you could have made about 41% per year since then.
In August of 2010 the buying picked up. You can see the beginning of UT 2. And that uptrend line lasted until the middle of 2014. At that point is where UT 3 began. The stock is currently way above UT 3 and coming down. It may stop at the first of second horizontal lines. It may drop to UT 3. Or it could drop to UT 2. No one really knows.
The one thing I will tell you is when there is a weekly close above the red DT line, you should look at buying again. I would say you have a high probability, at that point, of doing just fine. Why not buy now? Well mostly because the stock is following a downtrend line at the moment.
There is one other thing I would like to point out. If you plot the 8, 21, 50, 100, 150, and 200 exponential moving averages you will see that they are stacked in the proper order. Just like they should be for a long investment.
If you have a company you want me to chart for you just ask me in the comments section of this idea. Have a great day!
Technical Level to watch on CostcoI'll just stick to the technicals on this one. So its really quite simple after breaking above 140/141 resistance price continued on to the -1.27 Extension of the 132 / 141 Range it was consolidating within. So I'll be looking for evidence of bidders re-entering the stock at the retracement to previous resistance turned support at 140 / 141. In equities I am a strong believer in averaging into positions taking some profits along the way for income but leaving the bulk of positions running until the marathon has exhausted itself, so if I enter long I'll be taking some initial profit off the table at 145.70 and leaving the rest to run. If price breaks above 145.70 i'll be managing the stops as we go and waiting for price to break above 153.10 to average in a tad bit more and taking some profit off the table once again. Repeating the process over and over.
Note: I do monitor the options trading taking place in equities for clues of institutional buying / selling, so it's just a tool I think would be helpful to equity traders.. especially with earnings 22 days away.
Other scenario: Price breaks support and heads to retest minor support at 135.00 or 132.50, in which I'll have to re-evaluate the plan to the current action.
COST Uptrend, nice moveUsing the square root system we can define the COST cycle as 12 days. qe can count 12 days from the top. Also, we may see the uptrend and the moving averages uprising. This situation draws my attention, we had the fast moving average crossing above the slower one and the slowest acting as support to the prices. my Stop is really short and my target is long. We do have a nice Profit/loss ratio here.
Sold Out, COSTNotes on chart including indicators using Rob Hoffman's Inventory Retracement Bar Trade algorithm.
COST finally out of consolidationCOST had been a great trending stock for quite some time - particularly through 2011-2013.
But the last year has been a poor one for the trend trader. On the weekly chart this is shown by the rounded bottom and on the daily chart by a period of consolidation.
The breakout from this zone was messy. Finally on 29th and 30th October we had a couple of bullish bars but the volume was on the low side so this was not a convincing long position. But yesterday's bar (4th November) broke out (from a one bar pullback) on higher volume. Might be a good buy opportunity again.
COST break up of consolidationCostco caught up some buying momentum after it broke up its consolidation resistance at $116.60 and had 2 days of follow through. Price found top at $126 and was sold off to $110 which acts like major support for this stock.
It was out of play for couple of months but for now if it will hold above breakout point it will keep active traders attention.
Higher lows and higher highs tell us that buyers are in control. Next important resistance is at $120 which could be our target.
$COST vs $WMT will Costco outperform Wal-Mart this month? #stockTrading Pairs/ Options Forecast: Cost will perform better this month
Strategies: Cointegration, Correlation and Technical
Analysis : Elliot Wave Studies www.bitcoinprice.mobi
Trading pairs Costco vs Wal-Mart which has moved from its correlation can be done based on cointegration or technical analyzing the prices of the stock pairs and tries to profit from the mean-reversion process.
Cointegration (left chart): look for the divergence pairs that have moved away from each other and then back together in a regular pattern:
1. Identify a gap.
2. Make a trade assuming the stocks will return to their correlated path
The strategy is therefore to identify when the “gap” is created and to trade in the assumption that there is a high probability the gap will close or narrow.
This pairs have a high positive correlation between them, meaning that both stocks historically tend to move together. Generally because they are from the same industry sector and traded in the same market, so the same factors impact them.
Technical Analysis of the spread (right chart):
Costco move together very closely and has a maximal correlation with Wal-Mart. This means it's profitable when the relative value between the two assets is perturbed from equilibrium, you can take a contrarian position and profit from the spread trading as the prices revert back to their long-run mean.
The trade should be opposite to the “gap”. Wal-Mart has performed better than Cost, in order to close the “gap” Cost will now perform better.
Ciprian,
google.com
$COST: Accumulation Support AreaLast week's momo was not enough to break through previous support at 112.40. If we get accumulation or and a bounce with enough momo, we should look to test 114, and possibly 116. If we lose support around 111, price will find support around 107.
COSTCO WON'T QUITCostco has been going up forever and it is almost at an attractive buying point. It broke my trend change line so I would epect it to go sideways for a few days before continuing the upwar trend. It will probably bounce arond 116-120 so try to get in as close to 116 as possible. Long-term upside potential is undetermined but it should go past its most recent highs of 126 no problem.
I would use 113 as my stop loss if you are looking for the quick dollar.
I would use the weekly support for the long-termers.
1/12
EDITED: Costco Reaches Price Channel ResistanceCOST is currently resting on the resistance line of a price channel that it has been in for 384 days. I would wait a couple of days before entering a short position for two reasons. The first being that it could break through the resistance line, and the second being that the .5 trend based fib is at 107.48, so I would wait a couple of days to see if it reaches that, then expect the reversal to take place. Many traders (including myself) think that the market is in for a correction in the very near future. This would be a good play if you're unsure on your outlook of the overall market, as COST should go down whether SPY has its correction or not.
Entry Point: 107.48
Exit: 99.5
Profit: 8.02%
EDIT: The edit made to the chart was a slight change in the slope of the price channel because the first one was a little off, which made the .5 trend based fib level outside of the price channel, when it in fact should be in the price channel.
