Long FAST @ 80.32 - because the odds are in my favorI don't care what your trading strategy is. In the end, if you're going to be successful at trading, it's about putting the odds in your favor. In my case, I like to put the odds WAYYYYYY in my favor.
NASDAQ:FAST is one of my top stocks. Out of over 1,000 trades going back to the month before Black Monday in 1987, it has only produced 3 "losing" trades, and they'd all have been opened in the last 7 days. That's well above
a 99% win rate.
The AVERAGE gain on those trades has been 2.21% (excluding the near zero impact of the 3 current losers) and each took on average, just over 2 weeks to complete. On a per day held basis, that's about 4.5x the average daily return of the S&P 500 and includes periods of trading covering Black Monday, the dot.com crash, the Asian currency crisis, the Financial Crisis/Great Recession of 2007-09, and various other extreme market drawdowns.
You can see that during the most recent 3 month drawdown in the stock, I'd have come out ahead, so I'm not particularly concerned that the last couple of weeks have been rough ones for $FAST. I would consider the potential closing of the "gap" from a few weeks ago as normal and healthy from a technical perspective and offering price support at the level prior to that gap, as well as from the blue uptrend line.
I never have an absolute guarantee that a trade will make money for me, but this stock is about as close as it gets to that. In fact, it was all I could do not to buy a 4x sized lot to cover the 3 trades I could have made that I didn't because I was maxed out on the number of positions in my portfolio or chose stocks with even better risk/return statistics than this one. If it goes down another day, I may just do that. I'll obviously note it here if I do.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add at the close on any day it is still a "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
