0JZH trade ideas
After-earnings $MAT Credit Spread Bearish Trade*WE'VE ACCIDENTALLY PUBLISHED PRIVATE IDEAS*
From a trade earlier this month, we traded a credit spread opportunity to the downside on Mattel ($MAT). Check out our articles for more about this trade as well as our trades on $TWTR and $WYNN this month.
MATTEL - Bearish Bat on the M15Mattel - land of the Barbie Dolls. No no... don't get confused with the Martell the brandy distillery.
I had a lot of barbie dolls in my house, I mean... my daughters had a lot of dolls when they were growing up.
Technical Analysis
After the gap down from $31 at the end of Jan, the natural thing to do is to continue to short this counter. I would only get interested to short this at the completion of the bearish Bat Pattern at $26.05
end of the day ... 68% correct predictionNormal day @alfazenForecast - ca 68% correct prediction.
See www.alfazen.se
Next forecast @ 7am CET
MATNice bullish cup and handle pattern followed by a break out of the short term trend line.
A target of 35.70
Continuing MATTEL's growthWith the formation of local and continuing long trend there are 2 potential buying signals:
1. Flag
2. Volume divergence
Recommendation is to buy
Entry point 33.00 (breakout of top flag's line)
Stop-loss: less risky 30.00 (turning to this support level breaks long-vision)
more risky 32.20 (-6 tics 32.26 current flag's low point)
Target pirice 40.00 (according to sizing and Elliot's waves methods of target prognosis)
Good BuyIt's a good time to get into Mattel. They broke out and are at the bottom of a consolidation stage. I would set a stop at 31.50 because the major support is at 26.
BUY $MAT at $27.12 TARGET 1 Price: 29.01 Profit: 7% Stop/TrBUY $MAT at $27.12
TARGET 1 Price: 29.01 Profit: 7%
Stop/Trailing Stop: 26.36 Loss:
MAT reversal?MAT is on downtrend in TF Week, but TF Day seem reversal to uptrend, break out the previous high. Will the next target be $30?
MATTEL: Possible Long Into Early Signs Of New Uptrend?Friends
Indicative of a new trend direction. Liking the higher lows and higher highs. Double bottoming at 61.8 retrace, partially expecting an up move off of this level, off of the bullish engulfing signal.
Thanks
Tom
Top toys: Hasbro is way cooler than MattelFor what it's worth, this father of two thinks that Hasbro's current lineup of toys is much cooler than Mattel's.
Investors seems to agree.
Shares of Hasbro (HAS) are near an all-time high. Mattel (MAT) has been one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year. It's the misfit toy stock of Wall Street.
And it's been that way for a few years.
Why is Mattel struggling so much while Hasbro is hot? I took a trip to the Toys R Us in Times Square to find out.
Hasbro has a license to thrill. Simply put, Hasbro has the upper hand on Mattel when it comes to toys and Hollywood.
Hasbro makes Transformers. The fourth movie in that Michael Bay franchise came out this summer and has grossed more than $1 billion worldwide. I got a chance to play with the Grimlock dinobot. Ferocious!
Hasbro also has the rights to Marvel and Star Wars toys. With a new Avengers movie AND a new Star Wars film due out in 2015, Hasbro is poised for another big year thanks to geeks like me preparing to send a chunk of our disposable income to Disney (DIS). (The House of Mouse owns Marvel and Lucasfilm.)
Mattel has ties to Disney as well .. but not for long. It currently sells Disney Princess toys, which now includes Elsa and Anna from some little movie called "Frozen." But Mattel lost out on a chance to renew the deal. Hasbro will start to sell the Princess toys in 2016.
But it's not just about action figures from blockbuster movies.
Mattel's biggest problem is that its Barbie brand has seen much better days. American Girl, also owned by Mattel, is no longer helping to make up for some of the slide in Barbie sales either. Barbie sales plunged 21% from a year ago in the third quarter while sales of American Girl-branded products fell 7%.
Hasbro, on the other hand, has several successful franchises for girls, including My Little Pony, FurReal Friends and Littlest Pet Shop.
(Of course, I'm not suggesting that boys can't appreciate these toys ... or that girls don't want to play with Iron Man and Optimus Prime.)
Wheels are hot. Blocks are not. Even though Hasbro and Mattel are both trying to capitalize on new toy trends, older brands of theirs are still going strong.
Hasbro owns NERF -- which has been around since 1970. My brother and I enjoyed throwing NERF footballs and boomerangs in the backyard when we were young kids and beating each other up in the basement with NERF fencing swords when we were older.
Let's face it, NERF is still cool. There's little in life that's more fun than pretending to be Katniss or Hawkeye and shooting foam arrows from a giant bow. Trust me, I tried.
To be fair, Mattel still has some cool "legacy" toys too. In fact, Hot Wheels and Matchbox were some of the few bright spots in its most recent quarter. Sales were up 4%.
Mattel also has some potential with its recently acquired Mega Bloks line of construction toys. Some of the sets are geared toward fans of popular video games, such as Activision Blizzard's (ATVI, Tech30) "Call of Duty" and "World of Warcraft" as well as Microsoft's(MSFT, Tech30) "Halo."
But it's hard to look at Mega Bloks without comparing them to that other toy company that's famous for plastic building bricks. Mega Bloks is no Lego. And that's why everything is not awesome for Mattel.
$MAT Price Target has Hit #MAT IS now $31.50. Price Target has Hit . Great High Probability Trade. (HPS).
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Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) Gets Frozen By Disney (NYSE:DIS)Since the beginning of the year, Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) one of the largest manufacturers of toys has seen its stock price decline from the highs of $47.00, to a closing print this past Friday of $30.81. Mattel's recent earnings report was not well received by Wall Street. Over the past few days the decline accelerated after Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) lost Licensing Rights to The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) popular movie Frozen to Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS). This fall represents a decline of over 30% for Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT). Making it a clear under performer, and sending investors running for the exit. But like any other equity there is always opportunity for a trade.
Let's take a look at the charts as they will reveal the best place to enter this trade...
Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) is nearing a key level of technical support, in an oversold condition. As technical traders, it is our job to isolate and identify these levels before anyone else. Doing so will enable us to be positioned on the right side of the trade before anyone else.
I have isolated the $29.00 level for a long play on Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT), however, this is only a third of the job. Next, we will need to align Pattern and Time with this price level, to make it a high rate of success trade. I will be monitoring this equity over the coming week. As soon as the time is right to enter this trade, I will issue an alert to our Elite Round Table members for what could be a rebound of over 7% in shares of Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT). Be ready for the action!
Kiliam Lopez
Elite Round Table
@kiliamLopez
Mattel Continuation of Bearish Move After Double Top Formation1) Significant Double Top formed between 46.00 - 48.00 levels
2) Price has retraced back to Neckline and begin second impulse wave.
3) Price has broken 64 Month Uptrend Line and may transition within a projected down channel
The near term projected path of least resistance, will be for price to continue downwards.
It is also likely that the price will trade within the boundaries of the dotted Downtrend Line.
Theoretical Price Targets:
a) 32.88 = 40 - 7.12 = 32.88 (Conservative)
b) 27.00 = 40 - (48-35) = 27.00 (Plausible)
c) 18.97 { Double Top Neckline - } = 40 - (13 x 1.618) = 18.97
{Aggressive projection, lesser probability of happening vs then a) and b)}
MATTEL: Looking for a medium term correctionBearish weekly shooting star candle near 48.30 major high, bearish divergence on Momentum and Money flow index, provide an attractive short in terms of reward to risk.
first target at 43.80 area, which is a confluence of the 50-days SMA a rising trend line and a horizontal support. On a break below this support look for major downside towards 39.90 next key support, a break above the recent high at 48.30 negates this setup.
