0KHP trade ideas
BULLISH ENDING DIAGONAL AT WAVE CBuy PBR at 5.84 target 7$ stop loss 5.75
After reaching 7$ PBR will continue its fall until 5$ at least.
Optimism?Petrobras in a new management. The new president says that he intends to rescue the company of an "organized gang", and will attempts partnership with shareholders to raise the economy of the company. In the other hand some scholars do not agree with the Parente's (new Director) proposals and intend to struggle against the reform in the company.
In my view, I am optimistic about the change in the company and the way of the Lava Jato (anti-corruption investigation) is taking.
From now the trend is improving, though bad times are still to come! Be aware.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 BMFBOVESPA:IND1!
Kind Regards.
PBR close to finishing it's correctionPullback coming on PBR to 6.36 in a wave iv of C, then final wave v of C. Fibs line up very nicely both on the impulsive C wave and the retracement levels of the entire wave 1 impulse. Techs signaling oversold, just in line with a bounce up in wave iv.
PETR4 - Potencial AB = CD pattern in playPETR4
Potencial AB = CD pattern might be forming on the daily chart, giving us a 8:1 Reward to Risk ratio, which is nice.
- Support @ 8.00
- 38.2% Fib Level
- Black MA acting as Support
Long PBRLooks like oil is going to make another move but thinking next week the smaller plays will have there turn.
Long Pbr target above $9 Also see flag
Potential trend reversal at 1.618 reverse extentiondownward trend all the way to the bottom. potential reversal from the bottom now.
Trade idea for 04/25 - 04/26 - Short PETR4If NYMEX:CL1! opens neutral or bearish monday morning I´ll buy BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 PUTS (PETRQ90) aiming a two days correction for PETR4.
PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all...PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all. Out of a selection of other oil majors, PBR underperforms significantly when the starting month of August 2011 is chosen, a date I arbitrarily chose due to launch of a new industrial policy in Brasil (a proxy of changing economic policy). Note, however, work done by my friend, Raphael Geraldelli (related ideas), showing a much closer correlation of PBR to oil prices in a more recent period (). The takeaway here is that although PBR is correlated to oil prices, internal company issues and Brazilian political economy played an important historical role in the stock's price and I believe it will continue to do so moving foreword.
Short Petrobras based on an unsustainable rallyFundamentals
Petrobras has seen an 80% rally through March, which is unsustainable. The reason for this is because the rally is based on the possible [ impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, whose policies adversely affected the Brazilian oil market. While this is good news for the Brazilian oil company, the fundamentals of the company simply do not fit with such a rally.
It still has the largest debt level in the entire oil industry at about £75 billion; it will continue to have legal costs incurred from a corruption scandal; oil prices are still too low to be strongly profitable, and in my opinion will move lower to about $30, which will further fuel this rally to be pared.
Technicals
The stock price has hit a very strong level of resistance in the 4.50 and 4.75 price range, as indicated by the horizontal black lines, and is likely to rebound off this.
There has also been very strong bearish divergence on the RSI, which is all indicated by the thin black arrows.
