watch on verge of break out alot 8 call vol 8's june 19'thsoptions kind of mixed though id just put as watch
0KHP trade ideas
OPENING: PBR OCTOBER/JUNE 5/7 LONG CALL DIAGONAL... for a 1.38/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Loss: $138/contract
Max Profit/Return on Capital: $62/contract; 44.93%
Break Even: 6.38/share
Notes: Another small, bullish assumption engagement trade with the back month at the 76 delta, front at the 49, and a break even at or below where the stock is currently trading.
Petrobras (Brazil) - possible more than 10% short-term gainsPETR4 seems to be tracing minute wave 3 up of a C counter trend move. If prices crosses up 18.60, the odds increase for this scenario with the most probable target around the 22.00 level. If prices crosses down 16.60, this analysis should be revised. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
The "Future of the Gas Station? (Latin America)The "Future of the Gas Station”?
(“Christ the Redeemer of Oil?”)
One of the most beautiful (UNBELIEVABLY beautiful) and largest “mega cities” in the world which is also named one of the New Seven Wonders of the World is (in) the city of Rio de Janeiro. Perhaps the only other mega-city “city” on Earth that can come close to matching the natural amazing cliffs and crazy “year round” beautiful beaches of Rio de Janeiro is “Hong Kong” (there are many secret cities around the world that are better then Rio de Janeiro or Hong Kong for example along the Perl River or along Southern China or maybe someplace else hidden on Earth?) However, many larger cities are much much more expensive (Rent in Hong Kong for example is about 600% higher then in Rio de Janeiro and food prices in Hong Kong are are about 200% higher maybe even more if you dont trust the numbers??)
Interestingly perhaps the “largest ever” oil corruption and fraud charges in the ENTIRE HISTORY of “ALL” of Latin America was quite recently (and is still going on to this day at least from the Brazilian stock market BOVESPA index’s perspective??).
This was a major lawsuit that started at some “Gas Station” outside of Rio de Janeiro Brazil and centered around one of the largest oil companies in the world. At least 11 different countries where involved in the lawsuit for "corruption indictments" (even the United Stated SEC made off with $10’s of millions of dollars (cold cash) from this case?), at least 18 different companies where involved and 400+ people (criminals) involved with many going to jail for anywhere between 10 to 30 years of jail time and by some estimates something like R$6.2 billion (USD$2.5 billion) (which is about equivalent to price of construction of 10+ off shore oil rigs?). Even the president of Brazil was sentences to jail for 9 years and went to jail for about one full year+?
What makes Rio de Janeiro especially beautiful and “amazingly religious” is a 600+ “ton” statue of “Christ the Redeemer” shining with “hands stretched open” above the mega metropolis of 10+ million people. The statue of Christ above Rio de Janeiro is truly one of the most amazing religious concepts that any modern megacity on earth lives and works under. The statue of Christ is so big and so fundamental that two thousand years from now it might still be there… it is a 600 ton god statue?!
Perhaps its more often then we realize in Europe and North America, but religion is and has a very important key to Latin America (and many other cities on Earth). However, for Rio de Janeiro “god (apparently) is the key”? The giant statue of Christ the Redeemer atop Corcovado mountain looking down at everyone happens be one of the most stunning and most “godly” and fundamental religiously famous landmarks of our Earth? It one of the “wonders of the world?”
One of the interesting things about the oil industry is that there is a lot of “suspicion” that everyone involved “maybe” is making a “ton” of money. Many people suspect the oil executives of being a type of “cult club”. Its possible that the corruption charges against Petrobras are “very complex” and even “creatively created” by a mastermind who understood the legal system and that they might have to “go to jail” just to convict everyone of what they are doing wrong anyway.
In a lot of ways the (socialist “working class”) president of Brazil learned a very very important legal lesson after spending one year in jail and “getting out” and being “set free” after even contacting the United Nations Human Right Commission. The corruption maybe was with the legal system itself.. the judges? and Petrobras maybe wanted to see the Judges go to jail in addition to the president? However, the president was “popular” especially with labor activists and was eventually set free. The president was convicted of “money laundering” and “passive corruption”, defined in Brazilian criminal law as the receipt of a bribe by a civil servant or government official. Lula was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison and only served about one year. However, the president learned a very very important lesson about “doing things legally correctly” and maybe will even run for president again? (see many articles of news on this topic)
So how does the “oil mafia” really work? How do we know if there really is such a thing as a “oil” corruption (problem) and how does this all actually work and do people really go to jail and get “busted”? What about the police operations in Brazil did they want some of this “oil” money too?? What was this Brazilian “Operation Car Wash?” And most importantly what can we do about all this? (for everyone!?) Whats the suggestions for Petrobras’s Future and the future of “oil” in Latin America?
In the oil industry and in “big-time” obese operations world there is a term called “downstream”. Some companies get so chubby that they essentially dont need any of there sales stores that they actually sell their products in… in the oil industry a lot of companies “don't need gas stations” anymore so they “spin off” what is called their “downstream assets” and basically the gas stations are no longer part of the company. This allows for some “corruption”? However, there is good and bad sides to this, it makes it easy to “own a McDonald’s or Petrobras Gas Station franchise” but difficult to do anything “differently” or create “unique competition” with the financiers (the people with all the money) or the people that gave you the money at the top get “lazy” and want even more money from the Gas Stations.
The law is typically behind the “money” and not the people who own and run the businesses day to day. A lot of these people are not use to “dealing with the legal system”. However, what happened in Brazil’s Oil Business was that someone working at a “gas station” might have “purposely” tried to “go to jail” just to get Petrobras “media light and attention” and then the real problem was actually something more “fundamental” to franchising and just being “reasonable”.
The problem “with” Petrobras actually has to do with something called “franchising” and how gas stations all over the world really work. Imagine two possibilities a world where “everything is run by big oil business” or a world where there is a lot of independent smaller business. The problem is we need both and both sides say we only need that side.
However, what if the problem is with wealth is maybe something “gravitational” or “universal”?
Is there fundamental problems with ALL of capitalism?
In the Communist Manifesto written by a Eastern European named “Karl Marx” believed that capitalism contained the seeds of its own destruction. He described how the wealth of the bourgeoisie depended on the working people (just like the people who actually work at these Petrobras McDonald (only franchise) Gas Stations) ... Eventually the proletariat (gas station worker) would lead a revolution against the bourgeoisie (Petrobras). The final struggle would lead to the overthrow of capitalism itself. Because the businesses (got too obese and fat) (and the governments that regulate them too) would just get too big and too powerful.
For more then a few hundred years capitalism has hidden behind democracy… but what if? What if there was something really wrong? With both communism and capitalism then what? (we will not discuss that here.. however, there maybe some new political revolution needed that isn’t socialism, or capitalism or communism)?
The art of franchising and “gas station-ering” maybe needs a “global overhaul”… the secret maybe isn’t in “more franchising” but allowing “greater freedom” and allowing independent business owners essentially to start their own unique businesses. And when we leave earth that all will get even more complected (this is the “transport” industry?)
There are many detailed videos on corruption and “operations carwash” and it may help to hear what others have to say about this problem of “franchising”. Part of the key to understanding both sides of “real corruption” to understand “both sides” and even look into helping both sides solve those problems.
It maybe that both sides wanted good? Even the Brazilian military “discovered” the problem in the first place? The head of Brazil's army wanted the president “behind bars”? and the New York Times even claimed "Brazil’s democracy is now weaker than it has been since military rule ended".. however, maybe the truth was different?
Hope this helps you!
Asher
:)
Posible Trayectoria de PBR???Es posible que hayamos presenciado solo un rebote en PBR, Probablemente el precio del petroleo no mejore hasta que se solucione la crisis en la OPEP sumado a la Pandemia y el nuevo epicentro de esta nada, mas ni menos que New York.
PBR caiu demais! Excelente oportunidade de compra! PBR caiu demais! Excelente oportunidade de compra!
A NYSE:PBR caiu demais na crise do Coronavirus e da guerra comercial do Petroleo. O papel caiu mais que as demais empresas do setor, mais que o proprio petroleo e mais que o AMEX:EWZ , indice que ela compoe e tem grande representacao.
Estou efetuando compras no papel desde $11.00. E como meu unico receio esta na continuidade da desvolarizacao do petroleo, fiz uma trava na operacao, comprando PUT e trava de baixa no CL1! para me proteger e principalmente aumentar posicoes em NYSE:PBR se o petroleo continuar caindo.
Trade arriscado, mas com boa assimetria positiva.
Um grade abraco,
Lucas Sampaio
PBR fell too much! Excellent BUY opportunity!
NYSE:PBR fell too much in the coronavirus crisis and the oil trade war. The stock fell more than other companies in the same sector, more than oil iself, and more than AMEX:EWZ , index tha it composes and has a great representation.
I`ve started to buy since $11.00. And as my only fear is in the continuation of the oil fallout, I put a stop to the operation, buying a PUT and PUT Bear Spread at CL1! to protect me and mainly increase positions in NYSE:PBR if the oil continues to fall.
It's a very risky trade, but with a good positive asymmetry.
Best regards,
Lucas Sampaio
PBRSe viene el reversal de PBR?
A poner fichas que en 14 la garota, zona de la EMA100, se pone atractiva. Abajo se pone bien feo.
PETR4 segue feia...Depois da queda brusca do dia 27 e aparente recuperação em 28/01, PETR4 parece que enroscou no antigo suporte perdido nos R$29,00.
Essa enroscada no antigo suporte que virou resistência fica bem clara também no gráfico da ADR de Petrobras NYSE:PBR , coincidindo bem com a média de 200 no diário deste gráfico.
Com o clima avermelhado no IBOV e nas demais bolsas, não tenho muita esperança de ver a Petro subir forte, ganhar os R$30,10 e reverter essa baixa no curto prazo.
Se vier a perder a região dos R$27,70-27,10 (média de 200 no diário e retração de 50% de Fibonacci da última pernada de alta do semanal) eu enxergo um próximo suporte na região dos R$25,40. Nesse caso a média de 200 já estará virada para baixo e a coisa já vai estar bem feia.
Lembrando que tem oferta do BNDES e divulgação de resultados em fevereiro. Sigo acompanhando.
PETR4 - Attack x Defense AnalysisAs a war game, there are base points to be defended by the owner.
Armies will fight to gain control of these points.
The stronger side takes the base point and attacks the next forward point.
The weak side just try to defend, back to the next base.
The points are the known resistances and supports.
Strength is measured by the result of each action.
Here comes Sun Tzu's knowledge in The Art of War.
[Long] PBRThis has been a relatively strong name in the Energy sector.
Continuing out of a bull flag here. I think it wants to test resistance. Longer term, it should break out with Energy going up and dollar going down.
