0LJ9 trade ideas
X - Is steel ready to break out?Been watching this one for a long time. Noticing a change in character over the last month. October's selling in overall market did not take X below the 10.16 and 10.17 marks hit during prior month which is basis for long-term support/breakout. Sector and stock just completely out of favor and beat up. RSI looks to be on steady slow course up. Gonna take a flyer here and give this one a shot.
Reversal trade in US STEEL CorpPITTSBURGH, Oct. 01, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- United States Steel Corporation (X) ("U. S. Steel") announced today a joint venture partnership agreement under which it has taken the first step towards acquiring Big River Steel ("Big River") through the purchase of a 49.9% ownership interest at a purchase price of approximately $700 million in cash, with a call option to acquire the remaining 50.1% within the next four years. U. S. Steel has committed financing to execute the transaction. The implied enterprise value of Big River, including the expected completion of its Phase II-A expansion, which is fully funded and already under construction, is approximately $2.325 billion.
Possible entry level $12 - price target $14.50 - stop loss $11.50
Average analysts price target $11.50
Average analysts recommendation HOLD
Short interest 28%
P/E ratio 2.1
Company profile
United States Steel Corp. engages in the manufacturing and selling of steel products. It operates through the following business segments: Flat-Rolled Products, U.S. Steel Europe, and Tubular Products. The Flat-Rolled Products segment includes managing steel plants and production facilities that manufactures steel slabs, rounds, strip mill plates, sheets, tin mill, iron ore, and coke. The U.S. Steel Europe segment offers producing and marketsing strip mill plates, spiral welded pipe, heating radiators, refractory ceramic materials. The Tubular Products segment involves in manufacturing and trading seamless and electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing. line pipe, and mechanical tubing. The company was founded in 1901 by Andrew Carnegie, John Pierpont Morgan, Charles Michael Schwab and Elbert Henry Gary and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, PA.
X long setupX’s innovation outlook is trending up based on a current score of 58 out of 99, outperforming sector average. Insiders sentiment is positive. X is an Underperformer in terms of sustainability. It is most exposed to Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. as its supplier. Over the past 4 quarters X beat earnings estimates 3 times and it pays dividend lower than its peers.
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US STEEL coiling up$x $aks US steel looks good-Potential for lower prices before it breaks above this descending pattern. I was bearish on X above 46. I didn't think it would come this far down but some special could be in the works.. It could go RIPPING higher but I would not blink if it dropped to 5 or 6 per share again. Bear chart from 2018:
X - End Of Year Buy At $7.50United States Steel Corp or X, I see a strong buy at $7.50 at the end of 2019, with potential $20.00 at least ceiling next year. Example: If you buy ($1000) 133 stocks in X at $7.50 in January and price hits $20.00, your risk/reward will be 1: 1.5 or $2,600. This company should see profits increase, related to China tariffs and an increase in production and factories in the USA. Not bad 160% increase in stock, better than a bank. lol
That is a pitchfork indicator over price action and a yearly S1 pivot point at around $7.50 area noted on the chart too.
Good Luck & Great Trading.
US STEEL attracting buyers in high volume.Option traders and investors have started to turn a great deal of attention towards US STEEL , it looks to have found a bottom and as sell side volume has declined replaced by dominante buy side. Such high volume buy trades can not be ignored and often represent institutional interest in a stock.
For confirmation of the long side wait for some signals such as,
1 histogram to tick green
2 watch for macd bullish cross
3 move above pivot point
4 crossing of 7&12 ma's
“Trade wars are good...” they said.“.... Trade wars are easy to win...” they said. The outcome for $X has been a wipe off of $5B in market cap, marginally breaking even with its previous low levels from 2016 since the so called “trump’s rally”. Currently $X comes from a strong downtrend from its previous high levels around $48 and slamming at its current support in the $15’s. It hit support and bounced, but still in the bearish side, so probably some shorts taking profits, nothing to declare we’re out of the woods yet. I would expect the support to be retested before committing a line here and I would take a more conservative approach.
The “Trade talks” will be deferred until September with no sign of advancing and turning into ultimatums rather than negotiations. For this reason I am neutral, and in a wait and see pattern.
THE WEEK AHEAD: AAPL, GILD, X, BIDU; GDXJ, /NGEARNINGS
On initial screen for high rank/high implied, here are next week's potential winners for earnings-related volatility contraction plays: AAPL (31/27) (Tuesday after market close), X (52/54) (Thursday after market close), GILD (30/27) (Tuesday after market close), and BIDU (50/41) (Tuesday, but unspecified as to before or after market close). Because background implied on both AAPL and GILD are <50% (not what I like to see to play an earnings-related volatility contraction), those are cut from the list, leaving X and BIDU.
Pictured here is a tight short strangle in the September cycle paying 1.11/.56 at 50 max as of Friday close, with break evens at 12.89/18.11, and delta/theta metrics of 2.59/1.74. You can naturally go full on short straddle, but giving the setup some room between the put and call will give you the ability to adjust the strikes intra-trade without going inverted to do so, as you might have to if you went with the September 20th 15 short straddle, which is paying 2.29/.57 at 25 max with break evens at 12.71/17.29, and has delta/theta metrics of -10.62/1.99.
The rather unfortunate thing about BIDU is it's an ADR, so the precise announcement date and time is always up in the air until the last moment. That being said, the Sept 20th 95/100/130/135 iron condor is paying 1.46 at the mid (.73 at 50 max), has break evens at 98.54/131.46, and has -.17/1.82 delta/theta metrics. Naturally, I'd ordinarily like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit, but it's hard to see what that will actually pay with markets showing wide in off hours.
BROAD MARKET
IWM (11/15)
EEM (7/16)
QQQ (6/15)
SPY (6/12)
EFA 0/11
VIX 12.16
Because of low implied in "local expiries" (<45 days 'til expiry or less), I've been going out a little farther in time than usual, taking advantage of implied volatility term structure,* which currently slopes from longer-dated expiries into this current state of affairs, (See RUT Iron Condor Trade, below), with the small added bonus being that longer-dated expiry implied volatility tends to expand less relative to shorter-dated implied volatility in the event of a "local" volatility pop, which is the usual concern with selling premium in low volatility environments. Naturally, I'm not going all crazy with these longer-dated setups, but staying small and keeping powder dry for more favorable volatility metrics in shorter duration expiries.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top Funds By Rank: GDXJ (78/35), GDX (53/29), SLV (48/20), GLD (39/12), TLT (25/10), SMH (25/24), USO (23/32), XOP (20/30).
GDXJ continues to have ideal exchange-traded fund metrics of >70 rank, greater than 35 implied for premium selling ... .
IRA TRADES
I pulled the trigger on a couple of "not a penny mores" last week in XLP and XLU. Suffice it to say, I did not get stellar credit collection/cost basis reduction for these, since we're far away from the prices at which I want to acquire, but will look to roll out on weakness and/or in increased volatility. It's either stick something out there and get paid to wait or wait for lower and get paid nothing ... .
HONORABLE MENTIONS
/NG, UNG: Natural gas is around 52-week lows here. Generally, I look for a seasonality play where "peak injection" has historically set up, but it's generally a crap shoot as to where that will occur (that pesky Mother Nature), and it's usually later in the year. I'm watching it, but won't get particularly excited to enter something bullish until we break 2.00. Ideally, I'm looking to get in at around that 2016 low ... .
* -- You can see this in RUT, with August implied at 15.3%, September at 16.1%, October at 16.7%, and December at 17.6%.
They aren't jesting @ my 34 SMA anymore - now asking 4 more!They aren't jesting @ my 34 SMA anymore - now asking 4 more!
US STEEL ENTRY - The Price was RIGHT Bob!!! LOL 34SMAx500Hull!!!US STEEL ENTRY - The Price was RIGHT Bob!!! LOL 34SMAx500Hull!!!
