US Steel (X), upward momentum testing for breakoutUS Steel,
Previously noted as a range bound trade.
It nearly full-spanned the previous range, so good for one
trade. All previous positives still remain in place.
Good OBV breakout now, vs. 4 previous tests at this
level, RSI and Fisher also still point north and respected
the previous uptrend support levels. It could breakdown north,
has stronger volume on this move up. Has China or US turned
the corner? Or do we setup for a bull trap against the
160/200 MA, or long-trend down slope ~@$21 level, then back
down to $17 level.
0LJ9 trade ideas
US Steel - Range Bound OpportunityStill a dog, but a trade none the less. Long term I don't think is has found the bottom, and for-sure has not turned it around, but short term, a nice way to pick up 10 to 15% over a month period.
*Nice range bounding trading opportunity (albeit declining)
*You've got good volatility, with a nice strong bottom (albeit declining)
*stuck in a declining wedge pattern.
it is heading down again, look for a place to engage
OBV has a near-term breakout, still in long-term decline
Fisher has nice positive bottom
RSI and RVGI can try to indicate and entry point (watch to see if they hold), or if it tumbles for new lows
I think 16.50 to 15.50 is the entry range if the indicators hold with a 17 to $18 top end.
Also, if you're a long-term dollar cost average kind of guy, this 16.50 to 15.50 range is a good point to keep collecting. This dog will have its day,....some day.
X (United States Steel) Holding the last line of defense.This support line is extremely important for the bulls to hold. If a breakdown happens expect this stock to go much further down. Also the RSI is indicating strong bearish momentum. Futhermore, acccording to Wall Street Journal this company is being impacted by low demand for steel, and facing intense competition from low-cost foreign producers and top of all that the fragile global economy is impacting this stock since it is an industrial stock. online.wsj.com
PAIRS TRADE: BUY US STEEL (X), SELL SHORT GM (GM)See chart:
Risk 10% overall. X is volatile. Upside potential is roughly 20%. 5-10% downside in GM and 10-15% upside in X.
I like this setup. You can see that the pair of stocks is volatile and there is a lead-lag relationship that shifts back and forth. Given how GM is leading higher, it gives me confidence that X will find a bottom here and hold.
Cheers.
Technical Tim, Saturday 6:13PM EST, Sep 22, 2012