Expect ENPH breakout by EOY 2025. Buy <$60Trends:
- LT parallel channel shown marks some key trendlines for the company since IPO
- LT falling wedge intersects the bottom of this channel H2 2025 --> a buying opportunity above $50. If that breaks, falling wedge ends around $35, a 30% downside (or 40% vs today's price).
- The early 2023 peak aligned with peak in revenue and net income (decline matched stock decline). We're now seeing revenue and net income growth again (growth can bring back stock growth)
My Bias:
I'm a long-term believer in solar. ENPH plays mostly in the residential solar space (and is expanding into small commercial). They are often lauded for their high levels of customer service.
Investment Thesis:
We're back to financial growth but the stock is down. We're in a few months window before LT trends converge mid / H2 2025. If we break bullish from falling wedge and hit LOWEST point of parallel channel by EOY 2026, we'd be at $70/share (16% upside from $60; 40% upside from $50). This is my expected worst case scenario, meaning anything under $60/share is now a buying opportunity.
