0QZ4 trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, CCL EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, KREEARNINGS:
CCL (28/88/25.9%) and DAL (18/77/22.1%)* announce earnings on Thursday.
The DAL November 20th 21 delta, 2 x expected move 26/41 short strangle is paying 2.41 or 7.6% as a function of stock price (1.20 at 50% max; 3.8% as a function of stock price). I've pictured a short put here as the simplest play to get in on a sector that has been hammered by the pandemic, assuming you don't mind potentially being assigned at that price to work a longer-term play (i.e., covered calls).
CCL is small enough to play via short straddle, with the November 20th 15 short straddle paying 3.92 or 25.9% as a function of stock price (.98 at 25% max; 6.5% as a function of stock price). Alternatively, the > 2 x expected move 10/20 short strangle is paying .93 (.46 at 50% max; 3.0% as a function of stock price).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
TQQQ (41/103/30.2%)
XOP (19/60/17.3%)
USO (10/55/146%)
GDXJ (20/50/15.1%)
SLV (39/48/13.5%)
EWZ (21/46/14.1%)
XLE (30/44/131%)
XBI (36/45/13.0%)
GDX (19/42/12.7%)
SMH (27/47/11.2%)
QQQ (35/35/10.5%)
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (35/35/10.5%)
IWM (32/34/9.8%)
EFA (25/22/9.0%)
SPY (21/26/8.0%)
IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS/PREMIUM SELLING:
KRE (28/47/13.6%) (Current Yield: 3.83%)
SLV (39/48/13.5%) (No Yield; Precious Metals Position)
EWZ (21/46/14.1%) (Current Yield: 3.80%)
XLE (30/44/13.1%) (Current Yield: 7.52%)
XBI (36/45/13.0%) (Current Yield: .35%; Premium Selling Play)
SMH (27/47/11.2%) (Current Yield: 0.00%; Premium Selling Play)
QQQ (35/35/10.5%) (0.60% Yield; Premium Selling Play)
MUSINGS:
With the general elections now 29 days away, I'm not doing much here in terms of adding new positions. With the margin account in particular, I'm looking at going completely flat at or near October opex and then watching the show from the sidelines.
On the IRA/retirement account front, I'm already in most of the underlyings at the top of the implied volatility ladder, so don't anticipate doing much here anyway. I will naturally look at delta on a portfolio-wide basis to see whether I need additional delta one way or the other to make myself less directional running into the elections. We could, after all, conceivably see one of a variety of things depending on how things play out (i.e., relief rally, sell-off, "sideways nothing burger").
With Friday's sell-off, however, I'm tempted to add a smidge more of QQQ in the November cycle for my weekly 16 delta, 45 days 'til expiry broad market short put (the November 20th 16 delta 237 short put was paying 3.73 at the mid as of Friday close; 1.60% ROC as a function of notional risk).
* -- The first metric is where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
Dal closed shortBroke resistance outside candle. Might just be a fake out but not getting trapped take a small loss.
DELTA AIR LINES INC. SHORT📉 NYSE:DAL SHORT H4
🛒SELL BELOW = 27.85
🎯Target1 = 25.85
🎯Target2 = 24.65
🎯Target3 = 22.65
🛑Stop loss or cancel trade = 31.10
🙈Recommended risk = (2%-3%)
#DAL #DALSHORT #SELLDAL
$DAL - Potential long entry in 2 conditions1. Stay above the red line (this week above 28$)
2. Breaking above 30.22
Not for any advise
Just an Idea.
Landing for stimulus refuelFolks, buckle your seat belts as we are about to land shortly for a stimulus refuel. Please do not exit the plane as we will be taking off for our next segment to Recovery, USA shortly... whenever. Our next flight estimate time is 2-5 years, so sit back and relax and keep your mask on until we've reached our destination. Unless you're drinking to numb the pain... then you may take your mask off.
DAL Double TopLooking like delta has topped out, and is dead cat bouncing.
All things equal expecting this to revisit or get close to the May lows.
This would get invalidated if the government passes any sort of stimulus package for airlines.
Dal short target 20Big gap in 19s will close short at 20. Back test failed confirmed break should drop fast
DAL Ascending Triangle FormationIm not a huge fan of the travel sector right now as anything can be thrown off due to covid news. The charts on DAL though looks promising for a possible bullish run if it breaks resistance.
DELTA - its doesn't look greatThanks for viewing and sorry all those Aviation types who are hurting.
Just a short one,
Demand is deeply impacted, and there are yet to be any signs of a pick-up as yet.
Stocks don't often lose 69% in 60 days and then just turn around and head for new all-time highs. Especially, when two studies came out last week showing how the virus - that shall not be named - can easily spread on-board aircraft.
After a solid rejection at the 200EMA I am watching the $17.55 level as support, but I don't expect it to hold. After that, ~$14 at the 1.618 extension on what I believe may be the start of wave 5 down..
This is based 99% on TA and 1% the general environment presently. I don't want it to happen, that is just where I see the price going. I am not short Delta, but I also won't be a buyer at lower prices.
Delta Slow climbAlthough earnings reports are showing to be weaker than than of other airlines, Delta has been able to reduce their cash burn rate and help to mitigate overall losses. After taking a sharp drop down from progressive movement upwards, the technicals are starting to show a potential support level testing a higher low. Using a standard deviation measurement and taking into account current trend lines the target range for profit is above the trend line within the range.
Cup without the handleCup part formed here over 3 month span could see a handle or potentially no handle and it could continue in an uptrend heading into earnings also noting third touch of support on trend line drawn.
$DAL best technical setup amongst airliners$DAL is looking like the best technical setup amongst all the airliners, I'm hoping all targets are hit, I'm definitely in
$DAL Delta Airlines. Possible bull flagPossible bull flag building on this share. Break would see a possible target of 33.90. SL on a break below 29.90 on the daily chart.
$DAL Delta Approaching Major resistance Potential trade target to confluence of resistance @ $37.00
Delta improved its long term chances of survival with another cash raise.
$DAL Delta Airlines Back on Watchlist Potential Long entry on a break above the Fibonacci Golden pocket.
Entering a zone of low volume resistance.
Potential upside targets
$34.95- Overall fib .382 retrace level.
$37.25- previous pivot high & 200ma
DELTA AIR LINES INC. LONG📈 NYSE:DAL LONG H4
🛒BUY above = 32.10
🎯Target1 = 33.55
🎯Target2 = 35.50
🎯Target3 = 35.95
🛑Stop loss or cancel trade = 29.65
🙈Risk = (1%-2%)
#DAL #DALLONG #DALBUY
$DAL LongThis is not a trade advice, this is my personal opinion and it may be wrong.
Constructive criticism is welcomed!
