delta airlines ...rising uptrend ...
i see on chart a trend and a correction and ending that on fib prz (50-61.8)...
and now its a powerful breakout by a big bullish candle....
buy
0QZ4 trade ideas
Bearish Doubling Down For Delta AirlinesOn April 26, 2017, Delta Airlines ( DAL ) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 41 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.194%. It has a median loss of 6.485 % and maximum loss of 40.441% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 52.8562. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock recently moved up into a more neutral movement state.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.9842. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0188 and the negative is at 0.8566. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up, but the positive is dropping and negative is rising after today's session.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 71.7501 and D value is 61.2473. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is approaching overbought territory and should cycle down soon.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 3.82% over the next 15 trading days.
Just two days prior to our current downward DMA cross, Delta crossed over its 150 DMA. When the downward cross occurs a few trading days after an upward cross, the stock always drops. Since the end of the financial crisis in 2009 this has occurred in January 2011, October 2011, December 2011 (3 times), October 2012 (4 times), November 2012, July 2015, and April 2016. The stock dropped 6.369%, 12.993%, 5.483%, 3.879%, 2.317%, 3.535%, 4.814%, 5.100%, 5.572%, 3.560%, 1.261%, and 13.494% respectively. The median drop of these 12 occasions is 4.957%.
DAL: Buy on good earningsFAILED BREAKOUT OF HISTORICAL TOP MEETS MOVING-AVERAGE SUPPORT
DAL is currently trading 15% below historical high, after it repeatedly failed to break out since late last year, on what looks like a quadruple-top at the historical high. However, the corrective move seems to have met a decent support at the MA100, $44 level. I would venture to say that the stock has found a temporary bottom and that the short-term picture looks positive.
SUPPORTIVE FUNDAMENTALS
In addition to the improving technical picture, the news flow from the industry has been supportive, as airlines have been publishing ever improving yield/occupancy numbers. As a confirmation, the DAL earnings have just come out and the stock is indicated up some 3% pre-market on the news.
COMPELLING RISK-REWARD
Strategy: Plain vanilla BUY at the market
Target: $50/share then $52/share
Stop-loss: $44/share
Minimum R/R: 1.72x
Alternatively sell a put at the stop-loss ($44) to finance a slightly OTM call.
Significant Bearish Moving Average Cross For DeltaOn April 11, 2017, the Delta Airlines ( DAL ) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 150 DMA. Historically this has occurred 9 times and the stock drops a minimum of 4.371%. It has a median loss of 11.715% and maximum loss of 42.018% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.2516. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral but has been trending down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -22.0315. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0215. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down, but at a decision point. This indicator could produce a crossover and the stock could move up.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 23.7070 and D value is 21.8876. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock could begin a reversal, however, it could still drop to an oversold level over the next 5-10 trading days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. A strong resistance down trend has been taking shape since March 7. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 4.00% over the next 15 trading days.
DAL - Bounce to $50.00DAL appears to have bounced off support from the descending channel that it's been trading within since the beginning of the year, with a solid engulfing bar at support accompanied by a surge in volume. I'm expecting to see a move up to channel resistance at $50.00
DALToo strong resistance to break and after its third attempt, it obviously will need to rest before another go.
$DAL looks like its continuing its trend$DAL is breaking out of its cloud which is a sign that it may be continuing its trend. The company has been outperforming. Going long with an option with a an expiration about a month from now.
Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
Delta $DAL taking off for further gainsDelta has a very constructive fundamental valuation (see the bottom half of the chart) and a very constructive "accumulated position" on the charts to suggest "Blue Skies Ahead" for further gains in $DAL.
Fundamentally, you can see $DAL has $3.6 billion in "free cash flow" which is the real cash return you would earn if you owned the company outright (which is a simplistic, but more realistic view than just earnings). The market capitalization of $DAL is just over $30 billion, which means the current "Free cash flow yield" is 12% (3.6 billion/ 30 billion). That is a back-wards looking number but it is a high return given the alternatives that we can find in the universe of stocks.
Technically, $DAL has a price pattern that shows that investors have accumulated shares and are "in control" of those shares and are prepared to hold them off of the market until higher prices are realized in the marketplace. Why is this the case? It is all about how shares accumulate from sellers to buyer and how the price is displayed on the chart. The price where the most price action takes place is the "battleground" area and can be seen by the thin white line I have drawn in the chart across the $37-$36.75 price level from June until September. What happened at that price line is important, because it spent 10 weeks total there and when the market climbs above that level, it means that the sellers are likely done their selling and the buyers have taken over control. The way the pattern develops from the "battleground" area is to move away from that zone for the same amount of time that it spent at that level AND the size of the movement "at the battleground zone" is the approximate size of the advance from the battleground level.
The white box you see is the measurement of the movement around the 10-week white line from June to September and then it is moved to the end of the battleground level and used to measure the time and price of the advance.
These dual factors of fundamentals and "share price accumulation" give solid credence to a strategy to look for a move to $45-$45.50 over the ensuing 6 weeks. With $DAL at $41.17 now, that only represents a return of 10% in 6 weeks from current levels. If there are corrections back to the green arrow line drawn on the chart, then a much better risk/reward trade will set up as well and I will be looking to add to positions.
Other airlines including $JBLU, $LUV also support the $DAL chart.
Wishing you well,
Tim October 20, 2016 11:48AM EST
DAL: strong immediate buySignals:
double bottom
Flag
Buy 36.80-37.00
Stop 35.80 (-4 tics of flag's low)
Target 1-45.50; 2-50.00 (sizing+Elliot's waves)
DAL- Here is a REVERSE signal in the making ProfitFromPricesLooks like it is about to resume the trend. This time to make a new recent High. I am IN.
Delta Airlines still has a long way to fallJust bounced off again from the higher trend line, overall EMAs look to be heading south, could be a 15% move over the next couple of weeks
Delta DAL- Is it time to get long..for nice long profit?I think today is a perfect day to take some long positions in airline stocks. Today's pattern has a higher bottom and a nice RESTART signal! I am thinking to go long with a stoploss at today's low of $34!
DAL large breakout imminentDAL has just dropped 20% in 2016 and is expected to rise as much as 79% in the next year.
It is already going back up. And according to the resistance level drawn, it is very likely to repeat itself as it had in 2015.
Check out the analysts outlook www.marketwatch.com
