ADBE – Tactical CALL + Strategic PUT Setup (Pre/Post Earnings PlI'm currently watching Adobe (ADBE) closely ahead of its earnings report scheduled for June 13th. The setup presents a compelling two-phase strategy that aligns with both technical signals and the macro narrative surrounding tech stocks and overinflated expectations around AI.
🔵 Phase 1: Tactical CALL – Pre-Earnings Momentum
We're seeing a familiar pattern emerge — just like NVDA and AVGO, ADBE is being driven upward by heavy AI hype and anticipation. With strong bullish sentiment in social media, institutional interest still present, and a historically reliable "pre-earnings run-up", a short-term CALL trade seems favorable.
CALL Entry: 2–3 days before earnings
Expiration: June 13
Exit: Before earnings release
Target: +20% to +40% gain from bullish anticipation
Risk: Limited due to short duration; no hold through event
🔴 Phase 2: Strategic PUT – Post-Earnings Reversal
Once earnings hit, I expect a sharp reversal, even if the numbers are decent. Here's why:
RSI on daily and 3D charts is near historical extremes
Technical exhaustion signals: divergence, volume fade, upper Bollinger touches
Institutional distribution signs present
The market has priced in perfection – guidance slip or any miss = correction
Macro: high rates, cautious corporate spending, sticky inflation = risk-off sentiment
📊 PUT Setup:
Entry: After earnings release
Strike: Based on $480 breakdown confirmation
Expiration: June 20–28
Target zone: $445–$460
Stop: Above $515 breakout level
🧠 Final Thoughts
This is not just about earnings numbers — it's about unsustainable expectations and institutions likely rotating out after the run. ADBE has rallied on speculation, not fundamentals. My system detects 23 out of 26 bearish criteria being met. If the market reacts negatively, this could be a high-conviction short-term swing opportunity.
📌 Following the script:
✅ CALL before earnings (close before event)
✅ PUT after earnings if confirmation of breakdown
Let’s see how this plays out. Thoughts?
#ADBE #OptionsTrading #EarningsPlay #PutCallStrategy #SwingTrade #AIStocks #Adobe #TradingPlan
0R2Y trade ideas
Adobe’s Charts Show Mixed Signals Heading Into EarningsAdobe NASDAQ:ADBE is set to report the firm's fiscal Q2 results on Thursday. What do the software giant’s charts and fundamentals say heading into the report?
Let’s take a look:
Adobe’s Fundamental Analysis
ADBE was one of the original "Cloud Kings" back when the cloud was going to be Big Tech’s Next Great Thing. But as the shift in what's hot for tech firms moves from the cloud to generative AI, Adobe has been trying to evolve.
Wall Street is looking for ADBE to report $4.97 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.8 billion of revenue for fiscal Q2, which ran through May. Compared to the same period a year ago, results like that would amount to 10.9% of earnings growth on 9.2% of revenue gains.
Coming into the quarter, the firm had guided investors and analysts toward $4.95-$5.00 of adjusted EPS on $5.77 billion-$5.82 billion of revenue.
However, 19 of the 26 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover Adobe have cut their earnings estimates since the latest quarter began. (Seven revised their estimates higher.)
And beyond the headline earnings and revenues, some investors will also watch closely for Adobe’s so-called “remaining-performance obligation.” That refers to revenue that the company expects to recognize within the coming 12 months.
That number came in at $19.69 billion during Adobe’s fiscal Q1, of which the firm considered 67% as "current." Wall Street will be watching for whether that number rose or fell in fiscal Q2.
Adobe’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at Adobe’s charts, beginning with a 13-month one:
Readers will see that ADBE reacted sharply to a “double-top” pattern of bearish reversal that stretched from June through October 2024, as marked with two red boxes at the above chart’s left.
This pattern peaked in early September, and the stock bottomed out early in this past April.
Adobe has rallied back since then, but appears to have run into some resistance close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the early September through early April downtrend. That’s the gray horizontal line third from the bottom in the gray box at the chart’s right.
Now, let's declutter this chart a little and zoom in for a focused look at what's going more recently with the stock:
Looking at this time scale, readers will see that almost all of Adobe’s price action going back to the double-top pattern’s September apex fits very neatly within what we call an “Andrews' Pitchfork” model. (Denoted by the three purple diagonal lines at right.)
ADBE rebounded off of the pitchfork’s lower trendline in early April, then got a boost from what’s called a “mini golden cross” or “swing traders' golden cross” in May. That's when a stock’s 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line above) crosses above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA, denoted with a blue line).
However, the stock recently hit a rough patch as it tried to break out from the pitchfork’s upper trendline. That makes the upper line Adobe’s upside pivot for now -- currently at about $408, which ADBE was trading above as of Tuesday afternoon.
If Adobe can definitively find support at that level, the chart doesn’t indicate any significant resistance until the stock reaches its 200-day SMA (the red line above) at about $458.
Looking at our other indicators, Adobe’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) looks healthy, but not technically overbought. That's generally a positive.
That said, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) isn’t quite as cheery. The histogram of Adobe’s 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) has gone negative, which can be seen as a short-term bearish signal.
Additionally, the 12-day EMA (the black line above) is wrestling with the 26-day EMA (the gold line) for MACD supremacy. If the black line wins, that's probably good for Adobe’s share price. But if the black line loses, that’s probably bad for the stock.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ADBE at the time of writing this column.)
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ADBE watch $387.21/97: Key Resistance to the Recovery WaveADBE has been struggling to paint a bottom.
Despite what AI could do, revenues not rising.
About to hit major resistance at $387.21-387.97
It is PROBABLE that we get a dip from it.
It is PLAUSIBLE that it will paint a local top.
It is POSSIBLE to Break-n-Retest to continue.
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ABOBE it´s still a good buy opportunity.Given the accelerating resurgence in cryptocurrency markets, now is an ideal time to initiate a position in Adobe (ADBE). As blockchain‐based assets and NFTs gain renewed momentum, demand for professional content‐creation and digital‐asset management tools is set to surge. Adobe’s Creative Cloud suite—industry‐standard for graphic design, video editing and web development—is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the influx of creators minting, marketing and trading digital collectibles. Moreover, Adobe’s recent investment in AI‐powered features and its expanding Digital Experience segment enable seamless integration of crypto‐native assets into enterprise workflows. In short, a rising tide in crypto will drive unprecedented content‐creation needs, and Adobe’s robust platform and subscription model make it the optimal way to gain exposure to that secular growth trend.
Adobe Wave Analysis – 19 May 2025
- Adobe broke resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 440.00
Adobe recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 403.60 (which stopped the previous minor corrective wave iv) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
The breakout of this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) of the C-wave from the middle of April.
Adobe can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 440.00, which is the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii).
Adobe: Keep It Up!Adobe has steadily advanced upward within our beige Target Zone between $331.93 and $449.61, moving away from the low of the beige wave x, which thus gained further confirmation. The stock should soon fight its way out of this zone and head for the resistance at $640. The ongoing wave y should eventually extend significantly above this mark to complete the corrective upward movement of the blue wave (b) there.
Adobe Wave Analysis – 25 April 2025
- Adobe reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 376.40
Adobe recently reversed sharply from the support area between the key support level 335.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of 2023) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
This support area was further strengthened by the lower support trendline of the weekly down channel from the start of 2024.
Adobe can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 376.40 (the former support level which stopped weekly impulse wave iii at the start of March).
$ADBE deteriorating MOAT ; Still Expensive; PT < $350- NASDAQ:ADBE is one of the blue chip company of the last decade.
- However, Chicken has come to roost.
- Core products of NASDAQ:ADBE like acrobat are useless. One can use ChatGPT or any AI tool to parse and get the information. Google Doc for creating a PDF
- Adobe designer tool might still be used but AI tools are taking over which provides done for you. Apart from that Canva & Figma are way better and easier to use NASDAQ:ADBE
- NASDAQ:ADBE products are hard to use and have huge learning curve. On top of that, NASDAQ:ADBE engages in shady subscription practices where it doesn't let user cancel subscription and ask people to go through customer support potentially delaying cancellation to bill users.
- NASDAQ:ADBE despite having huge datasets of images isn't able to launch a good AI model. Firefly by Adobe is Joke and not good enough.
Fundamentally, it is still trading at a premium.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 20.39 | 23.01 | 25.56 | 27.02
EPS % growth | 11.61% | 12.82% | 11.11% | 5.72%
Base Case ( Lenient ):
Ideally, for a blue chip company with a MOAT growing EPS at 11-15% ; Failr forward P/E should be 20. For them, who are willing to pay forward p/e of 20
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price (F. p/e = 20) | 407 | 460 | 500 | 540
Base Case ( conservative ):
However, I believe NASDAQ:ADBE MOAT has been severely challenged and should doesn't command a premium multiple. Therefore, according to me, fair forward p/e should be 15
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price (F. p/e=15) | 305 | 345 | 383 | 405
Extreme Bear Case :
If we account for recession, We could see further compression in forward p/e ~ 10. Extreme bear case, where they miss EPS or revenue or both and guide lower.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price (F. p/e=10) | 200 | 230 | 255 | 270
Bull Case ( F. p/e = 25 )
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price (F. p/e=25) | 509 | 575 | 639 | 675
ADOBE buy BiasWith the current bearish move on the NASDAQ - we can expect Adobe to move towards that weekly/daily Demand zone and fill a Long position to the upside.
Vaulation and seasonality align with stocks and indices - we should find a bottom to this drop on all indices Mid-End of April 2025.
Trade safe!
ADBE - Adobe at the decision levelIf ADBE is able to jump above the Centerline, it probably will retest it, and then take off to the upside.
If ADBE is not able to crack the CL to the upside, then it's new projection is to the downside.
The natural target is the L-MLH.
But let's not forget the 1/4 lines!
These often act as good support. Specially with a catalyst like good News around the same time, it could bounce from there. So, that's why one of my PTG is always at these 1/4 line levels.
ADBE watch $388: Earnings Dump hit major support zone for a buy?ADBE earnings disappointed, dropping price to a major support zone.
$ 387.21 - 387.97 is the exact zone of interest that bulls need to hold.
Ideally this is a bottom at which to consolidate and then move North.
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Adobe (ADBE) Shares Plunge, Holding Near 22-Month LowsAdobe (ADBE) Shares Plunge, Holding Near 22-Month Lows
Last week, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) reported its quarterly financial results:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $5.08, Expected = $4.97
→ Gross revenue: Actual = $5.71 billion, Expected = $5.66 billion
Additionally, according to CNBC, the design software giant announced plans to double its AI revenue by the end of the financial year. However, despite these positive figures, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) shares plummeted by approximately 13%, returning to price levels last seen in May 2023.
This decline may reflect investor concerns over Adobe’s AI monetisation strategy and the potential loss of its competitive edge in generative AI.
Technical Analysis of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Shares
Price movements have established key points (marked with circles) forming a downward channel, which has remained relevant for over a year:
→ The price has fallen to the lower boundary, which previously acted as support in June 2024.
→ It remains below the psychological level of $400 but has not dropped significantly further.
→ The price has not fallen below the 13 January low, recorded after the earnings report.
These factors suggest that demand is preventing further declines in ADBE shares. If positive catalysts emerge, buyers may attempt to push the price back above the $400 level, potentially opening the path towards the channel’s median.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Adobe is About to POP April 11, 2025 - No Guarantees...Adobe has completed a 1st wave in a series of waves (3 up ), and then it has completed also a reactive, or is about to complete the reactive, and following time frames it indicates that April 11, 2025, we should start seeing the big bounce to exceed the $600 range. These moves are never a guarantee, however, I think that this prediction is quite plausible.
Good luck and be prepared and ready and don't be short Adobe.
ADBE to $465 - Chance for a BounceNASDAQ:ADBE ADBE, as well as other tech stocks, was beaten hard over the last couple of months. The earnings recently did not provide any relief for the chart either, although the figures were not particularly bad. In particular, the possible prospect of finally being able to expand and monetize Adobe's own AI “Firefly” continues to offer good opportunities.
With a PE of now under 20, Adobe has become quite favorable as a company that continues to grow well in the SaaS sector. It has also reached several technical support zones. We are at the lower edge of a very large bull flag that has been in place since the beginning of 2024. Horizontal support at $385 is also supportive. We have 3 large daily gaps in the chart above us and a bullish wedge within the flag. This is a good place to start buying for a possible bounce towards $465.
However, one must bear in mind that the overall market remains bearish. Purchases should therefore be closely hedged and not be too large. However, it would be wrong not to use this opportunity to enter the market.
Target Zones
$465.00
Support Zones
$385.00
$360.00
ADBE Bearish Price Target - $380ADBE has broken below the 200W and 50M EMAs. Further downside can be expected at this point with a potential bottom being at the 0.618 fib level, which is also around the 100M EMA.
A short entry would present itself should price recover to fill the gap around $493-$517
PT: $370-$380
Should price not reach the target, a bottom can be confirmed if the 5D, 10D, and 20D EMAs flip bullish
Adobe Wave Analysis – 13 March 2025
- Adobe broke round support level 400.00
- Likely to fall to support level 360.00
Adobe recently broke with the sharp downward gap the round support level 400.00, which stopped wave 5 of the previous impulse wave (1) at the start of January.
The breakout of the support level 400.00 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the sharp downward impulse wave (3) from the middle of February.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall to the next support level 360.00 – which is the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.