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Market Update - 9/22/2024• equities positive after rate cuts, but • NASDAQ:TLT sold off and energy was the best performing sector this week, along with other commodities, might signal expectation of inflation picking back up and the FED having to keep rates higher • the 50bp cut is also something that would be fueling inflation, as long as the economy doesn't go into recession • changed my strategy and watchlist to only focusing on the best setups and nothing else, need to reduce effort and master just one strategy • lots of missed opportunities this week, mainly NASDAQ:CEG and mistakes, like NASDAQ:KINS , NASDAQ:CORT • even though I'm long, the sector strength of healthcare, utilities, energy are typically not the leading ones in good economic conditions, so we could see sector rotation and money going into defensive sectors, while cyclicals underperform. • at the same time, some semiconductors are setting up well like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMSC and NASDAQ:AIRG
NYSE:ANF
by BenedekBokor
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: $ANF) Poised for Earnings Surge Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) is setting the stage for a potentially significant breakout as it prepares to report its Q2 earnings. The company is at the forefront of a critical week for retail, with major players like Victoria's Secret, Kohl's, Foot Locker, and Five Below also releasing results. The retailer has been making waves in both the U.S. and international markets, and investors are keenly watching for updates on its financial health and strategic direction. Stellar Earnings and Strategic Moves Analysts are bullish on Abercrombie’s earnings, projecting a 101% surge to $2.22 per share, adjusted. If these expectations are met, it would mark six consecutive quarters of triple-digit earnings growth, with revenue forecasted to rise by 18% to $1.1 billion. Abercrombie's sales growth has accelerated over the last four quarters, with a 22% increase in Q1 alone, signaling strong momentum. FactSet expects comparable sales to jump 16.4%, up from 13% last year. This robust growth trajectory has attracted the attention of major analysts, such as Citi, which opened a "positive catalyst watch" on Abercrombie stock, anticipating a strong earnings beat driven by "muscular sales and margins." Abercrombie (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) has also expanded its board of directors to 10 members with the addition of Andrew Clarke, Global President of Mars Snacking. This move underscores its focus on bringing in experienced leadership to navigate the complex retail environment. Beyond earnings, Abercrombie (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) is making a bold return to the Hong Kong market, eight years after shutting down its flagship store. The company plans to rent two large spaces in prime locations, betting on Hong Kong's stronger spending power compared to mainland China. This expansion is part of a broader strategy to capitalize on the city’s recovery from political turmoil and COVID-19-related disruptions. Technical Outlook: Signs of a Potential Breakout From a technical perspective, Abercrombie's stock (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) is displaying encouraging signs. Shares have risen nearly 89% year-to-date, currently holding just above their 50-day moving average after a rebound on August 16th. The stock is working up the right side of a cup base, sitting 19% below a buy point of $196.99. A sharp jump off the 50-day moving average could offer an early entry for aggressive investors, while the August 20 high of $172.90 presents another possible buy point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 56 suggests that NYSE:ANF is in a healthy position for further gains. The stock is trading above its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, further supporting a bullish outlook. After rebounding from a monthly low of $121 to $166, the stock might consolidate at the support pivot of $154 before setting a new course for growth. Strategic Moves in Hong Kong: Reclaiming Market Share Abercrombie’s return to Hong Kong signals a renewed focus on international growth. The company will lease two prime retail spaces in the bustling shopping districts of Causeway Bay and New Town Plaza, indicating a strong bet on the city's retail recovery. With plans to open a 7,000-square-foot store in Hysan Place and a 10,000-square-foot space in New Town Plaza, Abercrombie is positioning itself to capture the spending power of Hong Kong's affluent consumers. The retailer’s strategy aligns with other global fashion brands, such as Mango and Prada, that are expanding in Hong Kong amid falling property prices. This move could strengthen Abercrombie's global footprint and support its long-term growth plans. Looking Ahead: What to Watch for in the Earnings Report As Abercrombie & Fitch prepares to release its Q2 earnings, investors will be watching several key metrics closely: - Earnings per Share (EPS): Will Abercrombie achieve the forecasted 101% surge, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of triple-digit earnings growth? - Revenue Growth: Can the company meet or exceed the expected 18% rise to $1.1 billion? - Comparable Sales: Will the anticipated 16.4% jump in comparable sales come to fruition? - Hong Kong Expansion: Any updates on its strategic return to the Hong Kong market will be closely monitored to gauge its potential impact on revenue and profitability. Conclusion: A Strong Buy Opportunity on the Horizon? Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) is showing strong fundamental and technical signals, suggesting a potential breakout opportunity. With a solid earnings outlook, strategic expansion plans, and positive analyst sentiment, the stock is well-positioned for further gains. However, investors should remain vigilant of potential consolidation around key support levels, as the broader retail landscape remains volatile. The upcoming earnings report will be crucial in determining whether Abercrombie (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) can sustain its impressive growth trajectory and capitalize on its strategic initiatives. For now, the stock remains an attractive prospect for those looking to ride the wave of a potential retail revival.
NYSE:ANFLong
by DEXWireNews
2
ANF reversal or dead-cat bounce? NYSE:ANF ANF has recently pulled back from its all-time high (ATH) following its latest earnings report. Despite strong earnings, same-store sales, and electronic sales growth, and a dynamic inventory selection, concerns about a potential recession have weighed on the stock. Key Developments: Recently dropped below the 100-day Moving Average (MA) Retested the 200-day MA Bounced off the 200-day MA Broke out of a triangle formation on a 15-minute timeframe Broke above the 100-day MA but failed to break above previous support Expected Outcomes: Bullish scenario: If ANF bounces off the 100-day MA and reclaims the previous support level, it could retest the 50-day MA, coinciding with the upper limit of the current negative channel. In this case, I would consider near-term put options to hedge against a potential retest of the 200-day MA. Bearish scenario: If ANF fails to hold above the 100-day MA and the $150 support level, it is likely to retest the 200-day MA. I am closely monitoring the $150 level and will make decisions based on price action this week. Given the current macro environment, I prefer to be short this position. If the bullish scenario unfolds, I will wait for a retest of the upper channel limit before taking action. With key economic data, including retail sales, being released this week, expect volatility. Regardless of my position, I plan to be short-term and exit before the next earnings report.
NYSE:ANFShort
by Average_Joe_Options
ANF correction before next earningsANF has had an incredible run during these past 12 M and YTD, shooting up over 359% and 94% respectively. The stock is performing tremendously and has even had comparison to AI giant NVDA. But the NVDA bubble has popped, and I believe ANF will likely follow. With such a huge difference between a 3T and 9B market cap, I believe ANF will fall far more rapidly upon break of support. Expecting price to drop as much as 17% from current levels and likely consolidate and continue its run up near if not post its Q2 2024 earnings date.
NYSE:ANFShort
by LaMASIA_100
ANF recently bounced off 100 MA. Will the rise continue? ANF's Recent Pullback and Future Outlook ANF has experienced a significant pullback from its all-time highs after its most recent earnings report. This trend isn't unique to ANF, as even Lululemon (LULU), a market leader, has seen a drawdown since the year's beginning. However, I believe ANF's current rise is likely a short-term bounce, not a sustained trend reversal. Since the last earnings release, the upward trend has stalled, and a downward trend seems to be taking precedence. The recent rise is unlikely to last long. Several factors support this view: Earnings Season: Upcoming earnings reports from various companies might reveal difficulties compared to the strong performances of mega-cap stocks at the end of last week. This could continue the downward trend for ANF. Federal Reserve Meeting: The market awaits Chair Powell's interest rate decision on Wednesday. With inflation persisting, the Fed may be forced to maintain higher rates for a longer period, potentially impacting consumer spending and retail stocks like ANF. Technical Analysis: Technically, ANF is approaching resistance at the channel and the 50-day moving average (MA). Based on this, a pullback starting around $123 is expected. If the trend of lower highs and lower lows continues, ANF could fall below its 100-day MA, potentially reaching much lower levels before retesting the 200-day MA. NYSE:ANF NASDAQ:LULU NYSE:RL
NYSE:ANFShort
by Average_Joe_Options
Abercrombie & Fitch Surge On Booming Sales and Higher GuidanceAbercrombie & Fitch ( NYSE:ANF ) shares rose 23.27% to an all-time high on Wednesday as the clothing retailer's first-quarter results exceeded estimates and raised its guidance. The company reported quarterly net income of $113.9 million, nearly seven times greater than a year ago, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14, up from $0.32 in 2023. Revenue jumped 22% year-over-year to $1.02 billion, a first-quarter record. Profit and revenue topped forecasts. Sales of the Abercrombie brand climbed 31% to $571.5 million, while Hollister brand sales rose 12% to $449.2 million. They were up 23% to $820.1 million in the Americas, 19% to $164.8 million in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and 10% to $35.8 million in the Asia-Pacific region. CEO Fran Horowitz said the company "successfully navigated seasonal transitions with relevant assortments and compelling marketing, leveraging agile chase capabilities and inventory discipline." Abercrombie ( NYSE:ANF ) now expects full-year sales to rise about 10% from $4.3 billion in fiscal 2023, up from its previous outlook of a 4% to 6% gain. It sees an operating margin of approximately 14% compared with the earlier prediction of about 12%. Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch ( NYSE:ANF ) soared more than 24% to $189.40 as of the time of writing after touching a record $182.86 earlier in the session. They have more than doubled this year. Abercrombie & Fitch's ( NYSE:ANF ) "Always Forward Plan" playbook aims to drive global growth through a data-driven approach to store expansion, digital marketing, and social selling. The retailer's sales channels are varied, with the Abercrombie brands selling 40% in stores and 60% digital, while the Hollister brand sells 70% in stores and 30% digital. The company targets millennials who are "fashion-obsessed" and "digitally-led," while the Hollister brand is aimed at Generation Z shoppers who are "comfort obsessed" and "value versatility." Technically, Abercrombie & Fitch's ( NYSE:ANF ) stock is currently overbought with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 86.64. The daily price chart depicts a long bullish Harami candle stick pattern which accentuate the bullish reversal of the ticker.
NYSE:ANFLong
by DEXWireNews
5/28/24 - $anf - see better setups elsewhere, risky. sidelines.5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ANF - heresy to dislike this valuation? i get it's had a renaissance. it's profitable. 5% yield that's good! 19x PE! good capital stack. it's still cheaper than NASDAQ:LULU without any of the baggage all else equal. the issue here, my friends, is this price point is becoming more and more problematic. NASDAQ:PDD 's temu just crushed it. discount brands are taking share. me-too styles are eating away at brand leaders. i worry we'll see this show up sooner than later in the ANF equation. i'm going to be sitting out on this one b/c i'm not a fan of shorting a hot tape and nevermind a red hot individual chart like this one. but it's one of these situations where it's hard to park and ride for a few days of additional upside and in any down day, it could a. be large and b. see a follow-on reaction like we did in the white-girl-wasted names that reported earlier... NYSE:TGT , NASDAQ:LULU , NASDAQ:SBUX , NASDAQ:ULTA ( NYSE:ELF was the exception - congrats/ but the growth equation was like massive double digit and it's a discount brand too). if you're gonna bet on retail that generates good margin, slightly larger biz, "less" discretionary - i'd go with NYSE:DKS reporting the same AM and i'll be writing up in a moment - though i'm not probably on the sidelines here. careful fam. no need to get taylor-swift-kick-in-the-nuts.
NYSE:ANF
by VROCKSTAR
3
Wait ANF Doesn't Make AI Chips?Thesis: Bearish momentum on the daily and weekly stochastic. Closed below the 48 day ema, MTD, and YTD Anchored Vwap. Trend on daily ema ribbon has fliped bearish. However price found Support on -1 monthly ART level so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce. If it bounces back to the daily ribbon and the bearish moment is still in tact sell the rip! I will be watching this closely and may enter a small position in case it dumps without a retest.
NYSE:ANFShort
by retailmonkeybrainz