AGL 2hr chart falling wedge patterAGL is showing signs of bottoming out with positive divergence on its RSI while trading near the apex of a falling wedge pattern, Long risk entries on a close above 552.70 can see a push back to 580.00 level
AAL trade ideas
$JSEAGL - Anglo American: Five Waves Down, Relief Rally ImminentAGL stock has had a strong sell-off from its 77318 peak in February.
The sell-off to 51800 looks to have unfolded as an extended five wave impulse that is terminating in an ending diagonal.
There is also MACD/price convergence between wave ((iii)) and ((v)) which tends to precede trend change.
As much as it is still early to say whether or not 51800 is the bottom, price structure and momentum calls for a relief rally in the short-term.
AngloAmerican (AGL): Potential Reversal ZoneAngloAmerican is at trendline (monthly) support as well as the 200 week moving average, it is in week 34 & can put in a weekly low, indicators (TSI/RSI) are showing positive divergence. We will look for price to move towards the resistance line (celeste colour), closing above that would mean we have a yearly low something of low probability given economic indicators.
AGL Long Idea above R540.00AGL has managed to trade back up its support level of R540.00 offering a long opportunity with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio
AGL Short OrderAn order to go short has been placed on $JSE:AGL. It has broken out of the bottom of a sideways consolidation zone and if it continues downwards it will trigger our order. Target is at 441.
Anglo-American hmmmmmmmmOnly valid investing opportunity I can see is marked out as the 'Original Bullish OB.'
However, this is a very high risk entry as the OB is not a significant OB but rather only caused a minor MSB.
Pair trade: Buying AGL v Selling GLNAGL likely to outperform GLN?
A price action above 5.5275 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further confirmation for a break above 5.7075.
The target price is set at 5.8765.
The stop-loss price is set at 5.4390.
Walking the Bolliger bands might occur.
Walking the Bollinger bands refers to a trading strategy that involves closely monitoring the price movements of an asset relative to the Bollinger Bands indicator.
When the price "walks" or consistently moves along the upper or lower band, it indicates a potential trading opportunity. If the price continually touches or stays near the upper ban.
Low volatility is applicable (see the lower panel) and such periods can often progress to periods of high volatility. This phenomenon is known as volatility clustering or the volatility clustering effect. It suggests that periods of low volatility tend to be followed by periods of increased volatility and vice versa.
AGL - Long TriggeredJSE:AGL broke out of a long term descending triangle and has triggered our long position with today's price action so far. We are looking at a target around the 664 area with our stop loss just below the bottom of the triangle at around 538.
Anglo American (AGL): Lower Risk EntryShare price found support on a longer term trendline and has reversed upwards. It has now closed the breakaway gap. Expectation is for price to move upwards taking out resistance at R605 level. Above the upper trendline is the first point to take profit then wait for a re-entry when price breaks below the trendline that will form on dates 28 September and 7 October or 10 October.
Profit Target: +25%
Time in Holding: 30-35 days
Anglo American showing downside with the JSE ALSI entering bear Descending Triangle formed on Anglo American and the price seems to be breaking below.
If the ALSI continues down this will give a high probability short setup.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50 - Bearish
Target R405.50
AGL 60min channel breakupAGL has broken its downward channel and ha formed a good base support of R560,00
Entry : 565
target :593
stop :551
reward to risk 1.7 : 1
$JSEAGL - Anglo American: Stock At A Critical Juncture At 51000 The last analysis on AGL was on the 23rd of February 2023, link below.
The stock has traded lower since the last analysis and has prompted an update of the wave count.
The decline from 77318 has been strong with very shallow and brief pullbacks.
I am labelling the decline in a tentative manner to accommodate both the corrective ABC and an impulsive I-V scenario.
If the bulls are going to takeover again, they need to defend 54100 as a break below this level will confirm the sell-off as a five wave impulse.
I will be watching price action around 54100 closely.
Anglo American - Buy zone AGL closed down sharply on Friday - very close to upward TL support (blue). 570 would be a good are to begin accumulating but stock could overshoot to the downside to around the 550 level in which case I would be buying more. Stop loss would be on a close below the blue dotted TL.
Anglo American - Long IdeaThe stock has managed to hold its 20 day moving average for 2 days now after rallying off a up trending trendline.
- Pullbacks to R590-R608 will be an opportunity to enter long positions to target R650-675 initially.
- A daily close below R570 will negate the idea.
AGL: Close To Entering Bear TerritoryAngloAmerican is moving into a daily cycle low, however the share is walking a tight rope defined by 20 December 2022 low, if price goes lower than this price (R640.17) then major trend becomes lower as price seeks out a weekly cycle low. The trendline support is nearby and could provide a bounce into the next daily cycle albeit with a short uptrend before turning down. The broadening wedge price fell from can be backtested before resumption of down trend. Objective dates would be late April or early May for a cycle length of 30-32 weeks.
The share is a proxy for the JSE Top40, so if price goes below R640.17 then we can expect the Top 40 will follow.
Anglo American - Small bounce back is possible
After 30 % downside move, Anglo American may bounce back for a couple of weeks.
JSE Diversified Miners vs JSE Top 40 IndexFrom a note, just published.
Signals In November 2022 Suggested A 'Relative Underweight' In The Sector
Back in November I presented my view on the JSE Resources sector relative to the JSE Top 40 Index, with the bottom line being that traders/investors might want to consider a potential “RELATIVE UNDERWEIGHT” position in the sector.
We saw a minor ‘pop’ one week later, with a subsequent ‘rollover’ and breach of the incline to trigger a large bear flag technical formation within the megaphone structure.
Below is my original view (Time-Stamped on 22 November), followed by an updated chart (as at today).
Miners vs Top 40 (today, Friday 24 March 2023)
Since November, the equally weighted index is down by around 12%, with varying performance across the constituents.
See the demand-supply zones (green & red) on the weekly chart.
If we close around these levels today, 8 out of the last 10 weeks would have end in negative territory.
Let’s see keep an eye on the price action IF indeed it does trade around the next ‘demand zone’.
AGL vs JSE Top 40 Index (Relative)Anglo American Plc relative to the JSE Top 40 Index is back below the 200-week since early February (lower panel).
Note the ratio having been rejected at the prior demand supply zone and breaching incline support.
AGL- 200 day support broken!Anglo has had two attempts at getting back above the 200 day moving average. Both of which, have failed. This is very bearish indeed. I think you can short this stock even ahead of the dividend. Support is a long way down and just eyeballing the level from where we are, I think there's at least R80.00 to be made on the short side, if you include having to pay in the dividend. I would close out the trade and take the loss if the stock has a strong close above the 200 day moving average. I don't see that happening today though...
$JSEAGL - Anglo American: 64017 A Key Level To WatchAnglo American released FY'22 results today and all key performance measures were down.
The share price has remained resilient though.
From the 49368 low, price has traded up in an impulsive manner.
The move from 64017 looks to be in three waves and could be a b-wave of a triangle for wave ((iv)).
A break below this level will prompt an update of the wave count.
There is no clear trade signal at the moment so we play the waiting game and monitor price action above the 64017 level.
Anglo American Plc: Absolute Unwind + Relative WeaknessThe full note was published this morning on our client platform.
On 19 January I shared (with our clients) my technical perspective on the share, highlighting what I assessed to be an overbought rating with the potential for the share to retrace it’s recent strong upward move. The subsequent price action saw the share trending toward the highlighted trend line resistance with a print between 76500c and 77000c, followed by a short term sideways consolidation and a bearish reversal from 77318c to a low of 69800c, a 9.7% decline.
Further to the analysis, a review of the share relative to the Top 40 Index note the 14-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifting to a ‘neutral’ rating, from ‘overbought’. A breach of the 50 level on the monthly RSI may suggest further relative weakness and a shift in portfolio allocation from neutral to underweight.
Also noted is the relative ratio having been rejected at the prior supply zone.
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Short triggeredA short position has triggered on JSE:AGL based off of the signals from the stochastic, MACD and EMA cross.
We are looking at a target at around the 619 level.
