CSP1 trade ideas
SXR8 BEARISH ETFEMA 24 (Monthly) Acting as a dynamic recent price support
EMA 50 (Monthly) Acting as a dynamic support
Confluences: May 21 low and -0.27 fibbonacci
Rejecting 0.618 fibb line
Structure flag - A breakdown below the lower boundary of the channel could trigger this idea.
Double hit on upcoming EURO investements. A short comparison of the SP500 Index with the SP500 ETF traded in EUR.
Due to the weakness of the EUR, the ability to profit from lower SP500 prices is substantially reduced.
Inflation and weakness of the EUR is killing the cash deposits in the Euro Zone.
You can thank the ECB.
A bit of a short-term relief on the S&P?The divergence played out well, but no long signals so far. Maybe just a temporary relief and then down again.
Let's wait an see if RSI breaks through the 50 resistance level.
Low Cost Index Funds and the "bubble"As the majority of the investment community is aware, low cost index funds such as the iShares CSPX are a great way of investing your money in such a way that it will beat inflation and any other factors that will reduce the overall value of your money. Warren Buffett (CEO of Berkshire Hathaway) is notorious for recommending low cost index funds to those who are inexperienced in the stock market and even long term investments. There have recently been many arguments that made me question the integrity of this seemingly flawless investment ideology. Even Buffett said the "only" downfall to index funds is that they are, and I quote, "boring". These arguments that have sparked up across the internet are by those who fear that the inherent price of these index funds are far beyond their actual value despite them holding the top performing stocks in the market. Thus removing the need for investors to investigate individual companies and rather stand at the sidelines and say "Just buy them all and see what wins". This attitude towards index funds and the ludicrous prices/growth (in comparison to any other listed entity and their own past) has sparked major concern. I have provided a link to a video below that discusses the 2 opposing ideas presented by Warren and Michael Burry (Famous for his prediction of the stock market crash of '08) and what each of them mean. From my view point (albeit mildly inexperienced) has led me to believe that in the long run despite the concerns, there will be crashes, like every other market ever, but these crashes will be shrunk by the overall growth in the following years and or decades, therefore making it worthwhile to invest in such index funds while dedicating at least 5% of your portfolio in individual stock.
TL;DR: It is inevitable that there will be a crash in all index funds at some point or another (that cannot be changed) but in the far longer term view, it will still be worth your time, money and effort to invest in such equities.
Don't try to be smart, just buy regularly an Index :)Forget stock picking, Timing the market, etc. Just buy regularly (during decades) a broad index fund and you should not do bad :)
SP500 (GBP-hedged) - still bullishThe correction that began in May and finished in October of last year is tricky and I have no idea if my count is even close to being correct but whichever way I look at this I end up bullish. To me, it's just a question of how deep the present correction will take before this index resumes it's path to the upside. (The only negative scenario I can find is the somewhat far-fetched one that this is some kind of expanded flat dating back to the original correction back in 2018. I have shown it with the red count. Personally, I'm with the bullish blue count.....)
SPX investing in GBPCompare investing in a S&P 500 ETF, for an investor based in GBP currency. With dividends reinvested.
vs S&P500 ETF tracked in USD
vs FTSE100 ETF tracked in GBP
For comparison, how much returns are due to underlying vs currency effects.
