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OMU trade ideas

Our opinion on the current state of OMUTUAL(OMU)Old Mutual (OMU) is a leading African financial services group offering a wide range of financial solutions to retail and corporate customers across 17 countries, with primary operations in South Africa and the rest of Africa, along with niche businesses in Latin America and Asia. The company is what remains after the unbundling of Quilter, Brightsphere, and most of Nedbank from the original Old Mutual Plc, which was listed on the London Stock Exchange. Some estimates suggest that Old Mutual is currently trading at around 30% below its embedded value. The company manages approximately R1.1 trillion in assets. A significant portion of its recent losses was due to an R8 billion write-down in its investment in Nedbank, which has since started to recover. As part of this recovery, Old Mutual unbundled 62 million Nedbank shares worth about R10.4 billion, distributing them to shareholders at a ratio of 1.32 Nedbank shares for every 100 Old Mutual shares held. Like many insurers, Old Mutual has been vulnerable to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting the company to increase its provisions by R2 billion. Despite these challenges, Old Mutual's results for the six months ending 30th June 2024 were positive, with headline earnings per share (HEPS) up by 7% and a return on net asset value (NAV) of 12.6%. The company highlighted that adjusted headline earnings, a key metric for distributable earnings, grew by 3%, supported by a 14% increase in shareholder investment returns driven by improved performance in South African equities. With a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.95 and a dividend yield (DY) of 4.92%, Old Mutual appears relatively undervalued. Technically, the share has been moving sideways since March 2020, but given its current valuation, it could begin to perform well soon. We view this blue-chip stock as inexpensive at its current price, making it a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors.
JSE:OMU
by PDSnetSA
Old Mutual trading styles for buys - Target R13.70There are many different ways to trade Old Mutual looking at this chart. 1. Reversal trader They will wait for the support to establish as it's done at R10.00 and then will buy and hold until it reaches the top of the range. 2. Breakout trader WIll wait for the price to go up and complete the W Formation where it will breakout and trade up to R13.70 3. High probability trader This one will have to wait the longest for the price to not only close above the W Formation but also close above the Downtrend and the 20MA and 200MA. Either way, Old Mutual does look bullish as things stand. Enjoy!
JSE:OMULong
by Timonrosso
1
Old Mutual: Bears Reaching End of ChannelOld Mutual is seeking a low on the long-term time frame. Currently bouncing off support. More risk accepting investors can accumulate at these levels as weekly swing low is confirmed, longer term traders can wait for a swing low confirmation on a monthly basis. The target profit from this move is at least 25% at which point a downtrend can be expected to resume targeting a break of support before finding the ultimate bottom in 2023.
JSE:OMULong
by runyamhere
6
Our opinion on the current state of OMUOld Mutual (OMU) is a premium African financial services group that offers a broad spectrum of financial solutions to retail and corporate customers across key market segments in seventeen countries. Old Mutual's primary operations are in South Africa and the rest of Africa, and it has niche businesses in Latin America and Asia. This company is what is left after Quilter, Brightsphere and most of Nedbank were unbundled from the original Old Mutual Plc which was listed on the London Stock Exchange. Some estimates indicate that Old Mutual is about 30% below the company's embedded value. Currently, the company has about R1 trillion under management. A large part of its loss in the period was the R8bn write-down in its investment in Nedbank which is now recovering. The company unbundled 62m Nedbank shares into the hands of shareholders worth about R10.4bn in the ratio of 1.32 Nedbank shares for every one hundred Old Mutual shares held. Obviously, insurers like OMU are vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic and the company announced a R2bn increase in its provisions in this regard. In its financials for the six months to 30th June 2023, the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 8% and group equity value (net asset value) up 3% at 1880.6c per share. The value of new business rose by 2.6% and gross written premiums increased by 16%. The company said, "Sales grew by 14% across our segments driven by improved productivity levels, which contributed to strong growth in the value of new business." In a voluntary update for the 3 months to 30th September 2023, the company reported Life APE sales up 4% and loan and advances up 2%. Gross written premiums increased 15%. The company said, "Excluding China, Life APE sales recorded strong growth of 13% from the nine months ended 30 September 2022 (the "prior period")." In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2023, the company estimated that adjusted HEPS would rise by between 14% and 34%. The company said, "Old Mutual recorded robust results from operations ("RFO") growth due to strong operational performance underpinned by exceptional growth in new business and value of new business as we continue to gain market share across our segments." On a PE of 10.08 and a dividend yield (DY) of 5.44%, we see this blue-chip share as relatively cheap now. Technically, the share has been falling since October 2021. Our advice was to wait for a clear break above the downward trendline - which came on 10th November 2022 at 1097c. Since then, the share has moved up to 1221c.
JSE:OMU
by PDSnetSA
$JSEOMU - Old Mutual: Only For The Patient, Grinding UpwardsSee link below for previous analysis. Old Mutual has not taken off as I expected, well, given the fact that I had not looked at the fundamentals. The stock has steadily grinded from 921 to peak at 1344 cps before pulling back to 1115 cps. The Elliott Wave pattern formed by five overlapping waves is a leading diagonal for wave (1). If wave (2) is complete then 1115 is the invalidation level and should be used as an aggressive stop-loss. Only a break below 921 cps will invalidate the entire bullish outlook.
JSE:OMULong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of OMUOld Mutual (OMU) is a premium African financial services group that offers a broad spectrum of financial solutions to retail and corporate customers across key market segments in seventeen countries. Old Mutual's primary operations are in South Africa and the rest of Africa, and it has niche businesses in Latin America and Asia. This company is what is left after Quilter, Brightsphere and most of Nedbank, were unbundled from the original Old Mutual Plc which was listed on the London Stock Exchange. Some estimates indicate that Old Mutual is about 30% below the company's embedded value. Currently, the company has about R1,one trillion under management. A large part of its loss in the period was the R8bn write-down in its investment in Nedbank which is now recovering. The company is unbundled 62m Nedbank shares into the hands of shareholders worth about R10,4bn in the ratio of 1,32 Nedbank shares for every one hundred Old Mutual shares held. Obviously, insurers like OMU are vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic and the company announced a R2bn increase in its provisions in this regard. In its financials for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 8% and group equity value (net asset value) up up 3% at 1880,6c per share. The value of new business rose by 2,6% and gross written premiums increased by 17%. The company said, "Sales grew by 14% across our segments driven by improved productivity levels, which contributed to strong growth in value of new business". On a PE of 9,37 and a dividend yield (DY) of 5,02, we see this blue-chip share as relatively cheap now. Technically, the share has been falling since October 2021. Our advice was to wait for a clear break above the downward trendline - which came on 10th November 2022 at 1097c. Since then the share has moved up to 1210c.
JSE:OMU
by PDSnetSA
OMU - ObservationThe stock has come off the boil and returned to the up sloping 200dma Currently broken down out of a rising wedge pattern. Support : R11.90 , R11.60 Major Support : R11.00 NB: Upcoming earnings release "A rising wedge pattern is a technical chart pattern that traders use to identify possible trend reversals in the price of a security. It appears as an upward-sloping price chart featuring two converging trendlines, with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex. When it is accompanied by declining trading volume, it can signal a trend reversal and a continuation of the bear market. Traders use the rising wedge pattern in various ways to support their trading decisions. Here are some common applications: Trading Strategy: Traders use the rising wedge pattern as a proxy measure for support and resistance. They look for price bounces from this pattern to identify potential selling opportunities. Trend Reversals: The rising wedge pattern can help identify potential trend reversals or corrective pullbacks in price. Traders look for divergences between the rising wedge pattern and the price chart to spot potential shifts in market sentiment. Sell Signals: Traders often use the rising wedge pattern as a signal to sell when the price breaks below the lower trendline. However, it’s important to note that the rising wedge pattern works best in trading ranges rather than trending markets. It’s worth mentioning that traders often use multiple technical indicators in conjunction with the rising wedge pattern to develop comprehensive trading strategies.
JSE:OMU
by Trader-Dan
Our opinion on the current state of OMUOld Mutual (OMU) is a premium African financial services group that offers a broad spectrum of financial solutions to retail and corporate customers across key market segments in seventeen countries. Old Mutual's primary operations are in South Africa and the rest of Africa, and it has niche businesses in Latin America and Asia. This company is what is left after Quilter, Brightsphere and most of Nedbank, were unbundled from the original Old Mutual Plc which was listed on the London Stock Exchange. Some estimates indicate that Old Mutual is about 30% below the company's embedded value. Currently, the company has about R1,one trillion under management. A large part of its loss in the period was the R8bn write-down in its investment in Nedbank which is now recovering. The company is unbundled 62m Nedbank shares into the hands of shareholders worth about R10,4bn in the ratio of 1,32 Nedbank shares for every one hundred Old Mutual shares held. Obviously, insurers like OMU are vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic and the company announced a R2bn increase in its provisions in this regard. In its financials for the year to 31st December 2022 the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 139,8c compared with 118,5c in the previous year. Gross insurance premium revenue increased from R83,84bn to R85,67bn. In a report on the first quarter of 2023 the company reported gross written premiums up 19% and a 22% increase in gross flows. The company's discretionary capital balance fell from R3,5bn at 31st December 2022 to R1,4bn at 31st March 2023. In a trading statement for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company estimated that HEPS would increase by between 11% and 31%. On a PE of 6,84 and a dividend yield (DY) of 4,94, we see this blue-chip share as relatively cheap now. Technically, the share has been falling since October 2021. Our advice was to wait for a clear break above the downward trendline - which came on 10th November 2022 at 1097c. Since then the share has moved up to 1232c.
JSE:OMU
by PDSnetSA
Old Mutual: Rising Wedge Break BeckonsOld Mutual ($JSEOMU) price went below the black line, representing a cycle failure on daily time frame, it has also confirmed a weekly swing high so we have high conviction that the trend has turned bearish. The intersection of the green line and the divisor of the parallel channels presents strong support. If price reaches this level we will be looking for a confirmation of a daily cycle low as an entry point. Ideally price must go lower than R9.21 to reset the yearly cycle (see linked idea for a monthly view where we would we reset). NB: The parallel channels are a Pitchfork extended backwards, so the dotted line can be construed as the median line.
JSE:OMUShort
by runyamhere
#JSEOMU - UpdatePrice has reached swing high resistance and currently flagging for an attempt to break out and reach the first gap at R13.30 Price is also firmly above all key moving averages. ✅ R12.30 needs to hold on any pullbacks or risk a deeper pullback to the 20dma. A bull flag is a bullish chart pattern that occurs when a stock is in an uptrend. It is considered a continuation pattern, which means that it suggests that the price will continue to rise after the pattern is complete. The pattern is formed when the stock rises sharply (called the flagpole) and then trades sideways for a period of time (called the flag). The flag is usually angled down away from the prevailing trend. The tighter the flag, the better the signal is said to be. The breakout from a flag often results in a powerful move higher, measuring the length of the prior flagpole
JSE:OMU
by Trader-Dan
UPDATE: Old Mutual heading to target 1 and next target is...Falling Wedge formed on Old Mutual and the price broke up and out of the pattern. Since then it's been going to our first target of R12.61. It is still on course. Last few weeks, OMU has formed a W Formation (another breakout pattern). Once the price breaks this one, the next target could be as high as R13.38. Other indicators confirm upside to come: 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target 1 -> R12.61 Target 2 -> R13.38 SMC: Above the W Formation is a Break of Structure to the Upside. This is when the price breaks and closes ABOVE the wick of the previous HIGH in an UPTREND. ABOUT THE COMPANY: Origins: Old Mutual is a multinational wealth management company originating in South Africa. Founded in Cape Town in 1845, it's one of the oldest existing financial services companies in South Africa. Expansion: Since its establishment, Old Mutual has expanded to operate in 14 countries across two regions: Africa (including South Africa) and Asia (including China). Services: The company provides a broad range of financial services, including life assurance, asset management, banking, and general insurance. Managed Separation: In 2016, Old Mutual announced a "managed separation" strategy that aimed to separate its four main businesses into standalone entities. This resulted in the creation of four independent businesses: Old Mutual Limited, Quilter plc, Nedbank Group, and Old Mutual Wealth. Employment: Old Mutual employs over 28,000 people worldwide.
JSE:OMULong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Old Mutual Falling Wedge breakout and looking sassy!Falling Wedge formed on Old Mutual, and since the breakout it's been rallying. It's looking great for the upside, we suggested a few days ago. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target remains at R12.61 above the top of the Falling Wedge. I'll let you know. ABOUT THE COMPANY Historic Foundation: Old Mutual plc was originally established in 1845. It started in Cape Town, South Africa, as the Mutual Life Assurance Society of the Cape of Good Hope. It was the first mutual life assurance company in the country. Geographical Presence: Old Mutual has expanded significantly since its founding, becoming a prominent financial services group in several countries around the world. It has a particularly strong presence in Africa, including South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Nigeria, and other countries. Split and Restructuring: In 2018, Old Mutual undertook a "Managed Separation" process where the company was split into four separate entities: Old Mutual Limited, Quilter plc, Nedbank Group Limited, and Old Mutual & Nedbank Insurance Holdings Limited. The purpose was to simplify its structure and unlock shareholder value. Services Offered: Old Mutual offers a wide range of financial products and services including life and general insurance, asset management, banking, and other wealth management solutions.
JSE:OMULong
by Timonrosso