More bad days for TESLATesla is about to meet its temporary trandline and probably will continue to close the gap.
0R0X trade ideas
TSLA short swing ideaI like the RR in this trade, that's why I am choosing TSLA over others. As we are bearish on current order flow, the price prints are showing bearish movement in the coming days. One possibility is that it might take out buystops before trending lower and I think today's day will give more information on that. However, the technicals are there that favors the trade. Weekly Sibi, Daily SIBI, and H1 breaker + FVG.
TSLA SHORTTSLA Short. Trendline break to the downside. Looks like we may have some more downside movement on TSLA before earnings come out. Nice R/R. Tight stop
Tesla (TSLA) Long-Term Analysis: Retesting Key SupportHello traders! Let’s dive into a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) on the monthly chart to understand where the stock might be headed next. I’ll walk you through my thought process, focusing on a comparison between the recent correction and a similar setup in 2020, while also analyzing the current correction’s alignment with the triangle formation from the 2021–2024 consolidation. My goal is to help you see the context of this setup and make an informed decision if you’re considering a trade.
Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture and Historical Context
Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since 2013, as evidenced by the ascending channel (highlighted in blue). This channel has guided the stock’s long-term trajectory, with the lower trendline providing support during pullbacks and the upper trendline acting as resistance during peaks. Within this uptrend, Tesla has experienced significant breakouts followed by corrections, and I’ve identified a compelling similarity between the current price action and a setup from 2020, alongside a key technical level from the recent consolidation.
Step 2: Comparing the Recent Correction to 2020
In 2020, Tesla consolidated in a range between $12 and $24 (labeled "Consolidation 1" on the chart). It then broke out, rallying to a high of $64.60—a gain of about 169% from the upper end of the consolidation range. Following this breakout, Tesla experienced a sharp pullback, dropping to $23.37, which represents a 63.8% correction from the $64.60 high. After finding support at this level, Tesla resumed its upward trajectory, soaring to $166.71—a 613% increase from the pullback low. Now, let’s look at the current situation: Tesla broke out of "Consolidation 2" (around 2021–2024), rallying from $212.11 to a high of $488.54—a 130% increase. It has since corrected by 51%, dropping to the current price of $239.43. This 51% pullback is slightly less severe than the 63.8% correction in 2020, but the structure is similar: both followed significant breakouts from consolidation zones.
Step 3: Current Price Action and the Triangle Retest
Tesla is currently trading at $239.43, down 55% from its recent high of $488.54. If the correction deepens to around 60%, it would bring the price to approximately $195.42 (calculated as $488.54 × (1 - 0.60) = $195.42), which aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the triangle formation from "Consolidation 2" and the "Retest support?" zone around $170–$200. This confluence suggests that the current correction could be setting the stage for a significant bounce, just as the 2020 correction did. If this $170–$200 level fails to hold, I’m watching for a deeper pullback to the "Retest support" zone around $138–$150, which aligns with the lower trendline of the ascending channel and has acted as support during previous pullbacks (e.g., in 2023).
Step 4: My Prediction and Trade Idea
Here’s where I put myself in your shoes: if I were trading Tesla, I’d be watching for a retest of the $170–$200 support zone as a potential buying opportunity, drawing from both the 2020 playbook and the current technical setup. Why? In 2020, Tesla found support at $23.37 after a 63.8% correction, which set the stage for a 613% rally to $166.71. Similarly, a 60% correction now would bring Tesla to the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, a level that could act as a springboard for the next leg up. If Tesla holds this support, I expect a move back toward the $300–$339 range, where it faced resistance before the recent drop. A break above $339 could signal a continuation toward $488.54, retesting the recent high.
Profit Targets and Stop Loss
Entry: Consider buying around $170–$200 if the price retests this support and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume).
Profit Target 1: $300 (a conservative target based on recent resistance).
Profit Target 2: $339 (a more aggressive target at the prior resistance zone).
Stop Loss: Place a stop below $160 to protect against a breakdown of the $170–$200 support zone. This gives the trade a risk-reward ratio of up to 13:1 for the first target.
Risks to Consider
If Tesla fails to hold the $170–$200 support, we could see a deeper correction toward $138–$150, and potentially even $64–$90, another historical support level. Additionally, keep an eye on broader market conditions, as Tesla is sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment in the EV sector. While the 2020 setup and the triangle retest provide a historical and technical parallel, the current 55% drop suggests heightened volatility, so be prepared for potential whipsaws around these key levels.
Conclusion
Tesla’s recent 55% correction from $488.54 to $239.43 echoes the 63.8% pullback in 2020 after the breakout from "Consolidation 1." If the correction deepens to 60%, it would retest the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, suggesting a potential opportunity for a high-probability trade with clear profit targets and a defined stop loss. This setup could mirror the 2020 recovery, where Tesla rallied 613% after finding support. What do you think of this setup? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Pre market blows past TSLA supportPre market at 250 right now is just about pas support line, a Continuation of short til 220 at least is fully plausible. Just. bc its friday i wouldnt want to hold short til monday pre with how volatile the market movement is then. so be careful and prepared for a daily short position at least after seeing marker reaction and price movement confirmation. NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA Breakdown Looks Weak! Bearish Momentum Builds Under Key ZonTSLA just broke down from a key structure with rejection under $243 and failed to reclaim it. Price is now stuck in a bearish SMC range and sitting inside a demand zone that’s showing signs of weakening. Here’s how it’s setting up:
📉 Market Structure & SMC
Price is clearly trending inside a downward channel with consecutive break-of-structure (BOS) moves. The most recent bearish BOS confirms continuation, and there has been no clean change-of-character (CHoCH) to suggest bulls are regaining control. Supply remains untouched above $243, while price has now tested the $214–$221 zone multiple times.
📊 Indicators – MACD & Stoch RSI
MACD histogram is fading and showing no momentum crossover. Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold but not turning up yet — this could signal either a pause or a weak bounce before continuation down.
📉 TrendInfo Summary (1H)
The TrendInfo panel is heavily tilted bearish:
Momentum (MACD, RSI, DMI) is all red
Volume remains average but favoring red candles
Fear & Greed sentiment reads at Fear (-14.42)
Final recommendation: Sell (90%)
This confluence supports the bearish thesis unless bulls step in aggressively at $214.
🧠 Options GEX Insight
On the options side, we’re seeing a major wall of negative gamma around the $215–$220 zone — and the highest negative NETGEX / put support sits at $214.25, right where price is hovering.
If this level breaks, gamma flows could accelerate downside volatility toward $200–$210, with no real put wall protection below until $190.
On the flip side, the upside is heavily capped at $237.5 with HVL at that level. The nearest significant resistance lies at $260–$262, aligning with major call walls and the 62% GEX call resistance zone.
IVR is extremely elevated at 137.8, with IVx at 140.2, showing strong option demand and volatility pricing. However, most of the flow is put-heavy (1.6%), suggesting institutions are not betting on a recovery just yet.
🎯 Trade Thoughts & Scenarios
If price bounces here, we may see a short-term move to $230–$237.5 (gap fill or HVL reversion). However, unless TSLA reclaims $243, the broader structure remains bearish and rallies are likely to be sold.
If $214 breaks, that opens downside to $210 and even $200 fast — especially with this kind of GEX structure.
Swing traders can consider shorting failed bounces with tight risk above $230. Intraday scalpers can hunt rejections at $225–$230 zone.
Final Thoughts:
TrendInfo, order flow, and SMC structure are all leaning bearish. TSLA needs a strong shift in sentiment or macro support (like QQQ/SPY bottoming) to reverse this trend. Until then, bears are in control.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
TESLA: Will Keep Growing! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the TESLA pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
GEX Analysis & Options “Game Plan”🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment
🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES
Spot: 221
Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart)
– This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive.
Put Support: 200
– A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate.
Call Resistance: 400
– A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target.
Call Resistance #2: 300
– A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call).
Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels:
– There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260 . These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows.
🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS)
A) Upside Continuation / Rebound
– If TSLA closes above 225–230 , the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip).
– If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270 .
– Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400.
B) Downside Move / Bearish Break
– If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma).
– If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks.
– Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce.
– The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario.
C) Chop / Sideways
– If TSLA stays in 210–230 , market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay.
– Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised.
🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS)
NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma.
HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance.
If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300 , 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon.
🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment)
1. Short-Term Bearish
– If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV.
– Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement.
2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250)
– If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250).
– Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory.
3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months)
– A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes.
– A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV.
4. Neutral / Range-Bound
– If TSLA stays in 200–250 , you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse.
– Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual.
🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE”
High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds.
Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay).
Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments.
🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300 , while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
TSLA next 240 then 240Bear Flag breakdown on 15m chart
If we break down the 50% fib then TSLA
has chances to go all the way back to yesterday's low
Market not showing any kind of trust in this bull move
[TSLA] Bear Market to $15: Musk’s Empire at Risk?Tesla’s market cap now surpasses the combined market cap of all major automobile producers. Elon Musk is undeniably a genius, yet this staggering valuation owes much to a robust bull market and post-COVID hype. If Tesla were valued using the same earnings and revenue multiples as the average automaker, its stock price would hover between $15 and $20 per share.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Tesla’s chart is one of the most striking I’ve ever seen. It reflects a powerful bull market that has completed an Elliott Wave five-wave structure, signaling that a bear market is likely next.
Wave 4 formed a running triangle—a pattern typical in strong trends—and was followed by a short Wave 5, exactly as expected. Running triangles paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution. Indeed, Tesla’s chart reveals a beautiful four-year distribution phase (2021–2025). During this period, the stock struggled to climb higher due to persistent selling pressure. Strong hands have now offloaded their shares to weaker hands, setting the stage for a bear market.
A triple divergence on the monthly RSI further confirms extreme overbought conditions and reinforces the case for selling. There’s no significant support until the $15–$20 range.
If my prediction of a 2008-style crash in the S&P 500 (see related ideas) holds true, Tesla could bottom out around $15—a level that, intriguingly, aligns with its COVID-era low.
"Bull market geniuses turn into bear market fools."
Elon Musk net worth derives value mostly from Tesla and SpaceX as other companies are illiquid and very speculative.
Current Musk's Tesla stake is worth around $100 billion if the price falls down to $15 it would be worth $6 billion, all other things being equal that alone would put a significant dent in his net worth.
Musk is widely recognized as someone who leverages his Tesla shares and SpaceX to fund other ventures and lifestyle.
It is not clear at what price level his margin calls are and what arrangements he has with banks but if crash of this magnitude happens all his Tesla shares could be wiped out with possible full blown bankruptcy.
I wish him well and hope he does well, but this scenario is not unlikely and interesting to ponder.
Tisk Tisk TSLAShort thoughts on a neutral area. TSLA broke out of what appears to be bear flag to me. I also see an inverse cup & handle. We may attempt to retest and/or regain the channel. If we fail, 225-220 is my target. Demand zone marked. More journal notes this week to stay focused on the trade(s).
Bear Flag:
www.bapital.com
Cup & Handle:
www.investopedia.com
Inverse Cup & Handle ( from our very own Trading View):
youtu.be
TSLA - A false start? UPDATE : Tesla is unfortunately not starting on the right foot. The price action since the low is NOT impulsive to use an Elliot Wave term. So this is very unlikely to be the low. I will be selling my $265 calls near $255 price levels. And then patiently wait to see if we drift down for the true wave 5 down to $187. Additionally, the Murrey Frame 1/8ths line is also down there, as well a the Red dashed P line from the last break out. So..... if this take is wrong, and we manage to leave the channel gate move above $260 I will update. Until then its prayers to offload these longs profitably, and reset lower. Comments always welcome. And remember, trading is hard work, Sometimes we fish for a long time to catch the tastiest fish in the sea. Bona Fortuna!
Tesla Shares Tumble 7%+ Following Cybertruck Quality ComplaintsTesla Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faced another sharp sell-off on Thursday 10th. The stock dropped 7.27% to close at $252.40, down $19.80 for the day. However, volume was high, reaching 399.04 million shares.
The fall followed reports of build quality issues in Tesla’s Cybertruck. Owners posted complaints on the Cybertruck Owners Club forum. Several noted that the vehicle’s metal panels had detached.
Additionally, videos showing Cybertruck damage in cold weather gained attention on social media site X. These reports raised concerns over production quality.
Tesla had been recovering before the recent plunge. However, concerns about product reliability appear to have paused the rebound.
Technical Analysis
The 3-day chart shows Tesla in a strong downtrend. The stock broke below $290, triggering a drop to around $220 before bouncing back to $252. Price recently respected a key support near $190m, which may act as a floor for future declines. High volume near support signals buyer interest. If Tesla breaks above $290, it could retest $300. That zone acts as resistance and aligns with the 50- and 100-day moving averages at $252 and $232, respectively.
The longer-term target is near $488, but the price must clear $290 first. A failure to hold support near $220 could send the stock back toward $180. The RSI is at 42.77, slightly above oversold. Momentum is weak but may shift if price builds support above $250. Tesla’s next move depends on how it manages both technical resistance and consumer concerns.
TSLA bear (few months)TSLA is expected to drop below $225 based on both technical indicators and negative market sentiment. Just my Idea.
TSLA movement 09-04-2025Teslas old support and resistances have flipped. To wait to see if either new trend line is broken and a new trend establishes is imperative. But with the market beeing so bearish the new support will probably be the one to break and a continuation of the bearish trend will most likely continue. however the lower the price moves the better the profit margins will be when trend eventually reverses.
NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA in the coming monthsBased on my analysis using three-month candlestick charts, TSLA is not in a bear market yet. It may test the 202 level and possibly even dip to the 168 area. However, as long as it holds above that range, the outlook remains positive.
The market may be choppy in the coming months, which could present some solid trading opportunities.
Good luck to us all!
Tesla Taps the Golden Zone – Is the Launch Sequence Engaged?Tesla (TSLA) has shown textbook precision by respecting the golden zone after a significant sweep of previous highs. Rather than violating the last HTF low—which would’ve hinted at deeper downside—price instead retraced cleanly into the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) range and reacted with strong bullish intent.
This move indicates a healthy retracement rather than weakness, suggesting a continuation to the upside. Confirmation of this potential bullish leg would be a sustained close above the 272–300 level, which aligns with previous buyside liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence.
Key Observations:
- Golden Zone respected: Price bounced cleanly between the 62–79% fib levels.
- HTF low protected: No violation of higher timeframe bullish structure.
- Volume spike supports the reversal move.
Targets:
- Short-term: 300.61
- Mid-term: 416.67
- Long-term swing: 861.17 (over 255% potential gain)
Conclusion:
Tesla looks set for lift-off 🚀. The reaction at the golden zone and the preservation of structure give high confluence for a potential explosive move higher. Wait for confirmation via price continuation and structure integrity.
As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
TSLA theoryWe are ina bear market this year, But I'm optimistic long term.
This is a gem to accumulate, dca when is sideways.
TESLA: DOESN'T GET MUCH SIMPLER THAN THISThe downtrend is obvious, clear, and well defined. The long term downtrend will continue for the foreseeable future.
Maybe if this company changes its CEO, that will inspire confidence in the stockholders
Tesla shows downtrend As shown in the chart, there is a well-known pattern called Head and Shoulders. The black trendline represents the monthly data.
Tesla Bull Trap is copiumThere is currently 0% probably of a substantial breakouts in either direction.
Tesla is crabbing and will likely continue to crab with high volatility until May.
Nothing about the fundamentals has changed, and no technicals in terms of trend, volume, momentum, volatility and options chains suggests a reversal is nessary.
The overall damage Elon has done to the brand is likely irreversible at this point. Sales in Germany are down I believe 90%, and more than 50% in the US, meanwhile in China BYD is dominating. Moreover, China or Germany could seize the gigafactory in retaliation for tarrifs if they wanted. That only leaves Texas and Nevada as manufacturing hubs on products without any sales.
The promise of a fleet is a pipedream because FSD is not safe. Though this regime may push it through for Elon's benefit, it would only serve to incr3ase liabilities on their balance sheet and further damage the brand so it's not the moon shot he presents it to be.
The entire brand was built on climate pledges and hope.
The CEO has now endorsed big oil, he's running massive gas generators for AI, supports the regime that backed out of the Paris Agreement (again) and the protests are growing in momentum without any sign of slow down.
In short TSLA is in the "find out" phase.
Tesla to SUB $200 then back to $500?! Here's WHY!Tesla - NASDAQ:TSLA
A breakdown of this bear flag leads us right back to the massive multi-year inverse h&s diagonal retest.
Breakdown = 🎯$169 by May2025⏳
Successful retest and bounce here takes us to the original inverse h&s mm of $546 🎯 by Mar2027⏳
