Will TSLA Break Out and Reach $382?Disclaimer: This analysis is not a buy recommendation, nor a guarantee that the price will reach the mentioned targets. The goal is to share a technical perspective to provide useful information for traders and investors. In technical analysis, there are no absolute certainties, only scenarios based on historical patterns.
The weekly chart of NASDAQ:TSLA is currently in a period of indecision, which could evolve into a new uptrend, possibly forming wave 3 of an upward movement. Entering after the confirmation of this trend would follow a classic technical analysis approach, as mentioned by John Murphy in the first chapter of Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (page 4):
"The primary goal of analyzing market price action through charts is to identify trends in their early stages for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends."
Target Projection for Wave 3
If the uptrend is confirmed, Murphy also describes a way to calculate the minimum target for wave 3 (chapter 13, page 345):
"A minimum target for the top of wave 3 can be obtained by multiplying the length of wave 1 by 1.618 and adding that total to the bottom of wave 2."
Applying this to the TSLA chart, the estimated target for wave 3 would be around $382.00 .
Possible Weaker Trend?
A factor that could reduce the expectation of reaching this target is also described by Murphy (chapter 13, page 346):
"In a weaker trend, the maximum percentage retracement is usually 62%."
The amplitude of wave 2 in TSLA shows a retracement between 66% and 78.6% , suggesting a possible weaker trend, which could decrease the probability of reaching the 1.618 target for wave 3.
What do you think? Do you believe TSLA will develop an uptrend? If so, what could contribute to reaching the 1.618 target? Or does the retracement of wave 2 suggest a weaker trend? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s discuss the possible directions for TSLA’s price!
