0R1I trade ideas
more testing NVDA recently had a bullish candle after a correction, but it could just be a retest, so we need the next candle to close higher than the previous candle to verify if the bulls are back. If price closes higher than 128.68 area, we possibly may have price action to the 145-price range if price close below the 116-price area, then we might have price action to the 103 area. Please keep in mind this is all theory and speculation, and price can just consolidate again, and also verify for other confluences and please be careful.
From Boom to Bust? Nvidia Warns of a Potential 50% DropAfter an incredible rally, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA has finally hit a wall at its all−time high of $140, failing to secure a strong monthly close above this critical resistance level. This stagnation at the peak is a red flag for the stock’s near-term momentum.
Since the rally began in 2016, the monthly chart has been overwhelmingly bullish, with only a few exceptions: 2018, 2022, and now 2024, where the monthly chart has printed a bearish engulfing candle. Historically, when this pattern has appeared, it has led to steep retraces. Based on the median pullback from the past two occurrences, we could see a 50% decline by mid 2025 from current levels, a potential bloodbath for unprepared investors.
Is this a guaranteed outcome? Of course not. But higher timeframes carry significant weight in macro price action, and this bearish signal is too significant to ignore. Stay alert—volatility ahead!
While a short-term pump toward the $140s is more than likely, it’s important to recognize that this move will feel more like a dead cat bounce than a sustainable recovery. For those considering a short position, this potential bounce could offer the perfect entry point.
However, unless NVDA can achieve a strong break above $150 and successfully flip this level into support, there’s no compelling reason to turn bullish here. The macro warning signs remain intact, and the risk of a deeper retrace increases.
NVDA 8H Chart Correction
This is the count I'm working with for NVDA.
The break of gray support (now resistance), gave us Black A, and Black B is happening as a flat correction (Blue ABC).
If confirmed, this pattern could take us to retest sub-100 levels at green support for Black C.
Seems like buying pressure will fall for a while in NVDAFollowing the negative news recently, including fears of a trade war between USA and China, and the concern about the cheaper AI moder DeepSeek, made the shares of Nvidia fall. Shares of other hight-tech companies also fell including Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft.
On the technical the price broke the strong support trendline from beginning of 2024 while also making a big gap down at the start of the week. The 100EMA is also broken down, indicating the beginning of a short/mid-term pullback.
The selling idea here is interesting, but risky. I will be looking for sell setups with small lots in the coming days.
Nvidia - The Future Is Actually Known!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is repeating price action:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Back in 2018 Nvidia has been retesting the upper channel resistance trendline again and again before we saw a trendline break and a massive drop. We are seeing the same behaviour today but so far, Nvidia still manages to consistently respect the trendline.
Levels to watch: $200, $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Is #nvidia coming back on trackeOffcourse the deepseek news are not enough to floor #nvidia.
We all knew it has to go up finally.
Technically, It has to break the suppoer around 128-130 area and then we will have a clear bullish sentiment.
Still having bearish sentiment as long as it trades below this level.
Oh no! SHORT TERM BEARISH- BACK TO 116 AT LEAST. $NVDA SELL NOW!A dead cat bounce refers to a temporary, short-lived recovery in the price of a falling stock. The term comes from the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height. It is also commonly used to describe any situation where something experiences a brief comeback during or after a significant decline. This phenomenon is sometimes called a "sucker rally."
- Breakdown of the rising wedge pattern.
- SMA 20 & 50 are coming down
- Tariff wars with China and other countries
- Deepseek Shock/ Tech Shocks aka Al Black Monday on
- High inflation (Fed NOT "in a hurry" to push more rate cuts)
- Volume is decresing while price is increasing too fast.
- NASDAQ:SOXX shows weakness
Hopefully, NVDA holds at $116. Otherwise, it might gap down to fill at $95.
Advise selling now and purchasing again at a lower price.
NVIDIA crucial box to break above or below to $50 - You choose?This analysis is based on TWO EXTREMES, where I'll share my thoughts at the end.
It's a weekly chart where a rectangle (uncertain) pattern has formed and now we are waiting for the price to break above or below the Resistance or Support.
Nvidia has spent Billions on technology that wasn't that necessary to begin with.
DeepSeek's AI operates like a team of specialists, each focusing on their own area—think of it as having a bunch of mini-experts, like a lawyer AI for legal questions.
This setup, known as a "Mixture-of-Experts" architecture, allows DeepSeek to handle tasks more efficiently by activating only the relevant experts when needed.
In contrast, models like ChatGPT process vast amounts of data all at once, which can be more resource-intensive. DeepSeek's approach leads to faster responses and lower computational costs, making it a game-changer in the AI field.
Also DeepSeek’s AI models are way cheaper, so companies don’t need Nvidia’s pricey GPUs.
DeepSeek is messing with Nvidia’s dominance by offering faster, cheaper solutions.
Cutting AI Costs: AI training costs are dropping, and Nvidia’s expensive gear isn’t the go-to anymore people and investors flock to other investments - this could bode badly for the stock and we could see a MAJOR crash with the share.
So I am more inclined for the share price to drop fundamentally but also technically.
Price<20 but >200MA
Price has broken below the uptrend
Pattern Rectangle (Box)
Target up $190
Target down $50 - Which is more likely in the events of the above but frightening too for tech stocks going forward.
WHat do you think?
$NVDA - Breakout?So these two lines I drew making a triangle with that last candle closing above it, tells me that price is going to breakout. It doesn’t have to of course. I’m day trading this so $127ish is my target to get out. One thing I’m learning as a trader is to take profits quicker. A wise man once said, “ no one ever lost money by taking profits.” Or something like that..
NVDA continuation along Phi-ChannelSo I have drawn a phi-channel off the weekly chart from the overall uptrend NVDA has been in, and the most recent sell-off stopped at the 0% coefficient as every other recent low has.
This gap down also left a significant unfinished auction which price will retrace to at some point or another.
I use volatility rank and percentile to try and determine possible direction from this point, and we have the IV percentile in the 90s, the IV rank peaking at 80, currently at 50 and falling, price usually rises as IV falls.
The WIlliams VixFix line also hasn't been this high since the last major higher low.
I'd be bullish on NVDA and look to sell puts around 120, and buy call diagonals for more upside. Or just keep it simple and buy calls if you have enough capital.
NVIDIA big Dilemma. Trading NVDA.
Where is NVIDIA going?
Its hard to tell. Any ideas?
I have not seen this pattern, especially the downward.
The stock seems to be in a strange zip line.
10 tricks for developing discipline or here was WarrenIf you asked me, what is the most valuable trait an investor should have, I would call it the ability to follow your own rules. In other words, it is discipline. A novice investor can learn quickly, know all the features of the chosen strategy from A to Z, but it is unlikely that he will succeed without this trait. So, Warren Buffett called persistence your engine, and discipline the guarantee of a successful future.
Imagine that you have sailed to an unusually beautiful island with the goal of finding a treasure chest. To achieve this, you have a map with a description of all the paths and turns that you need to take to reach your goal. However, after the first 100 meters of the path you understand that this island has a huge number of amazing plants, ripe fruits, and curious animals. All this is very interesting and attractive for you: firstly, you want to take a photo of a beautiful flower, secondly, try a tropical fruit, thirdly, play with a funny monkey. “Why not? This is a great chance!” you think. After a while, having enjoyed the life of the island, you realize that it is already evening, and it is easier to spend the night somewhere under a palm tree and continue the search for treasure tomorrow, during daylight hours. “That’s a smart idea!” you note and begin to prepare a place to sleep.
In the morning, you wake up in a good mood, you are greeted by familiar flowers, fruits and a cheerful parrot. Since you already know all this, you decide to continue following the map to find the treasure today and sail on. The path is easy for you: the entire route is marked in advance, you just follow these instructions. So, here you are. At the roots of the largest palm tree, under many branches, there should be a treasure chest hidden. You clear away the branches, and here your expectation collides with a shocking reality. Instead of a chest, you see a hole, where at the bottom, with a wooden stick, is written: “Warren was here”.
In this example, Warren had the same map as you. Moreover, he arrived on the island much later. The only difference is his model of achieving the goal. He understood that exploring the island was not a priority for him right now. Warren would be happy to return there, but this time with the goal of relaxing, perhaps on his brand-new ship. And while he came to the island to look for treasure, he is looking for it. Everything else, despite all its attractiveness, is for him a risk of not achieving the goal.
I also think of my stock investing strategy as a map that helps me understand where I should turn in any given situation. The only thing that makes me follow the route is discipline. Unfortunately, I can't put the stock market on pause or ignore corporate news - they all require my attention. If I choose this path, I follow it. In other words, if I am not going to follow the recommendations of my map, then why did I choose this path?
However, how difficult it is to look calmly at temptations. A man is not a robot. So we need some tricks that can help us with discipline. I think that in this regard, the most brilliant invention of mankind was and remains the alarm clock. No matter how much we sleep, when the alarm rings, we wake up. The most disciplined people even set several alarms to make sure they wake up! On the one hand, it irritates us like crazy, on the other hand, have you ever thought about how well it helps us relax? After all, there is no longer a need to wake up and determine the time by the brightness of the sun from the window - now we have an alarm clock! It turns out that discipline can be associated with pleasant things.
By the way, on TradingView, such a brilliant invention is “Alerts”. I wrote about this function in the article: “A pill for missed opportunities” . I will only add that the alert system can be applied not only to the stock price, but also to the indicators that you use on the chart, as well as to a whole watch list. So, make a list of companies you want to keep an eye on. Then set alerts when a certain condition related to price or indicator value is reached. And finally, wait calmly. Yes, this is what will take up all your time - waiting. And believe me, it takes a lot of discipline to just wait.
To develop this trait, I recommend creating habits that are organically linked to your strategy. For example, to decide about a deal, I constantly refer to news about the selected companies. It is significant for me to understand whether critical events have arisen that could influence my decision to open or close a position. However, regularly reading corporate news can hardly be called a fascinating activity for everyone. This is not looking at memes at all. Therefore, below I will give a few tricks that will help make this (and not only this) activity systemic:
1. Set your alarm for 1 hour before the stock market opens. Let this signal remind you that it is time to study the news on companies that have already been bought or are very close to being bought.
2. Make access to news as convenient as possible. Install the TradingView app on your phone, tablet, home computer or laptop. Don't have problems accessing information in any situation: if you are lying on the couch, sitting at the table or walking in the park.
3. Start with small steps. For example, start by reading only the headlines of news stories, rather than the entire story at once. Gradually increase the amount of incoming information. In one full hour, you can easily gather all the information you need to get a complete picture before the market opens.
4. Use modern technologies. For example, reading news from your voice assistant. This is convenient if you are on the move.
5. Combine your habit with another direction you are developing. For example, if you are learning a foreign language, practice reading the news in that language.
6. Organize public attention to your habit. For example, agree with your wife that for every time you skip a habit, you take her to a new restaurant (I think the most effective method for married men). Chat with like-minded people and/or post your thoughts on the news on social networks. The extra attention will motivate you to keep doing it.
7. Add a little joy to your news reading habit. If you like freshly squeezed juice, place a glass of it next to you. After the work you've done, be sure to thank yourself. For example, a delicious dessert or watching one episode of your favorite TV series.
8. Formulate your goal as follows: not to be someone who understands everything, but to be someone who never misses a single event.
9. Separately, I would like to draw attention to keeping a diary of your operations. This is an essential document that will help you track your progress - your Track Record. At the same time, it is one of the systemic habits. I recommend adding to Track Record information about cash transactions, trades, taxes, dividends, conditions that prompted you to open or close a position in shares. You can organize such a diary in any spreadsheet to calculate some of the metrics using formulas.
Below, I will present the metrics that I use in my Track Record. All data in it will be provided as an example only.
10. And finally, I think it is significant to visualize your achievements not only in electronic form, but also to have a physical embodiment of your results. For example, these can be empty glass flasks where you can put coins or balls corresponding to certain actions: opening a position, closing a position with a profit, closing a position with a loss, paying dividends. One flask - one year. Such an installation will look beautiful in your room or office and will remind you of what you have finally achieved. You might even have some interesting stories to tell to curious guests who notice this piece of furniture.
NVDA SHORTYou need firstly understand the setup, then forecast the entry and TP point. Then look for a good R:R and enter the trade. !BUT YOU NEED TO WAIT UNTIL IT HITS TP OR SL!
Be patient.
NVIDIA (NVDA) - Failed Bear Flag, Bullish Reversal in Play📉 Failed Bear Flag Pattern
NVDA initially formed a bear flag, with a strong downward flagpole followed by consolidation in an upward-sloping channel. However, instead of breaking down as expected, the price reversed at the lower boundary, signaling bulls absorbing selling pressure.
📈 Breakout Potential
The recent impulse move out of the flag formation aligns with a Wave 1 breakout, confirming a potential bullish trend. If the Wave 2 retracement holds above previous lows, NVDA could see a strong Wave 3 rally towards $130-$140.
🔍 Key Resistance & Confirmation Levels
Immediate resistance around $122-$124 (previous highs & bear flag upper boundary). A break above $124 with volume could trigger further bullish momentum. Downside risk remains if NVDA re-enters the bear flag below $115.
🚀 Bullish Bias Unless Invalidated
Given the failed bear flag breakdown and Elliott Wave structure, the bias shifts bullish towards higher highs. Watch for strong follow-through on Wave 3 to confirm this setup.
📊 Trade Plan:
Entry: On pullbacks above $118-$120
Target: $130-$145
Stop: Below $115
💡 Let me know your thoughts! Do you agree with this bullish outlook?
Don't forget,
Patience is Paramount.
NVDA: Buy ideaOn NVDA, as you can see on the chart, we have a convergence between the resistance line and the support line. This configuration of the chart signals to us a high probability of seeing the market go higher if and only if the resistance line and the vwap are broken forcefully by the buyers.
NVDA 4H Analysis – Should You Buy Calls?Key Observations:
Current Price: $118.68
Support Levels:
$115.33 (Holding as support)
$113.31 (Next level below)
$101.28 & $90.99 (Deeper liquidity zones)
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Above:
The large blue zone (~$130-$140) represents an imbalance that price could eventually fill.
Earnings Event Nearby (Purple ‘E’ Icon):
Earnings can cause volatility, so be cautious if holding options through that event.
Call Option Consideration:
Bullish Case (Buying Calls):
Price is sitting near support at $115.33. If it holds and starts pushing higher, it could aim for the FVG at $130-$140, which would make calls profitable.
Confirmation Needed: Watch for bullish price action (higher lows, strong volume, break of short-term resistance).
Bearish Risk (Why You Might Wait):
If price loses $115.33, it could dip lower to $113.31 or even $101.28, which would crush call options.
Earnings could add uncertainty—if volatility spikes, premiums might be expensive.
Final Verdict:
Aggressive Entry: Small position in calls if NVDA holds above $115.33 with confirmation.
Safer Entry: Wait for price to reclaim $120+ to confirm strength before entering.
Risk Management: If NVDA loses $115, consider stopping out or waiting for a better re-entry near $101.
Nvidia Slipping Away?I know, I know, soo much bearish sentiment out there, bottom HAS to be in, right?
I still think Nvidia is in a bunch of trouble and can slip up at ANY moment.
Targets would be the $90-$95 support range.
NVDA | Pivot Points | $100Price action still pulling back around $127 - $120 for a continued sell-off towards $100
I'm using pivot points to help read the direction of trend and then measuring the waves in sellers to get an idea of how well momentum is doing which can also be used to generate targets like shown on chart
Entering at current price would make a 1:1 trade vs looking for a higher entry @ ~126 would allow for less risk.
NVDA Potential Long Term Investment NVIDIA stands out as a promising investment because of its dominant position in several fast-growing technology sectors. Its leadership in graphics processing units (GPUs) fuels advancements in gaming, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence (AI), making it a cornerstone in the digital revolution. As industries worldwide increasingly rely on AI and machine learning, NVIDIA’s innovative solutions offer unmatched performance that powers everything from immersive gaming experiences to complex data analytics in data centers.
The company’s aggressive research and development investments have continually driven product innovation, ensuring that it remains at the forefront of emerging trends like autonomous vehicles and edge computing. In addition to its technological prowess, NVIDIA boasts strong financial metrics, including robust revenue growth, profitability, and a solid balance sheet that supports further expansion. Strategic partnerships and a global market presence reinforce its competitive edge and long-term prospects.
Although risks and market volatility persist in the technology sector, NVIDIA’s commitment to innovation and its scalable business model provide compelling reasons for investors to consider it. Despite receiving the short end of the stick for several months as price consolidates within a wide value range, the stock has recently experienced the largest single day decline in Nvidia's history. Although some may panic and question the true intrinsic value for this company, it should be clear that Nvidia is a leader in the technology space. Overall, the company’s unique blend of cutting-edge technology, strategic vision, and sound financial health positions it as an attractive choice for those seeking long-term investment opportunities in a transformative industry.
Technically speaking, we have an Anchored VWAP taken from the start of the rally from $50 in confluence with a previous low liquidity zone around $100.
I will be watching this zone for a long term investment opportunity.
NVDA Update: Potential Trend ReversalFor NVDA holders; NVDA has been in a strong downtrend, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows.
The price recently tested a key demand zone (114.49 - 117.07), showing signs of a possible reversal.
Breaking the supply zone (120.02 - 124.79) would be a bullish confirmation.
A breakout above 127.87 ( last swing High) would further confirm that the downtrend is over and a new impulsive move is beginning.
The price is challenging the downtrend line at the moment, and a strong breakout could trigger a strong rally.
✅ Bullish Signs to watch:
Break above 120 = Confirmation of strength
Break above 124.79 = Bullish breakout
Break above 127.87 = Strong confirmation for trend reversal
🚨 Bearish Signs:
Rejection at 120 or 124.79 could lead to further downside.
A drop below 114 would invalidate the bullish thesis.
"Amateurs focus on how much money they can make. Professionals focus on how much they can lose." – Jack Schwager
🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly. 🚨
$NVDA: Broadening Formation & Earnings Play – $180 Calls for MayHey what's up everyone. Here's an analysis on NASDAQ:NVDA 👇🏽
💹 Trade Analysis & Setup
NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is currently trading at $116.66, showing high volatility inside a Broadening Formation (BF) on both the daily and monthly timeframes.
This setup is a textbook liquidity expansion pattern, where price is making higher highs and lower lows within a widening megaphone structure.
The key catalyst in play is NVDA earnings on Feb 21, 2025, which could drive significant price action and IV expansion.
🔼 Bullish Case (Targets: $129 - $141.88 - $150+)
Earnings Catalyst (Feb 21): AI demand remains strong, with NVDA leading the semiconductor market.
Breakout Zone at $123-$125: NVDA must reclaim this zone to shift into an uptrend.
$129 (Prior Weekly High): A breakout here could bring momentum buyers & institutions into play.
Gap Fill to $141.88: Major upside potential exists if NVDA can sustain bullish momentum post-earnings.
🔻 Bearish Risks (Key Support & Breakdown Levels)
Daily Lower BF Break (~$113-$115): If this level fails, downside could accelerate toward $110-$105.
Monthly Broadening Formation Lower Level (~$100-$95): Extreme downside risk in the worst-case scenario.
Earnings Disappointment: If NVDA’s report fails to meet expectations, a strong move down is possible.
Theta Decay Impact: My contract loses value daily (~$3.53 per day), so a slow move up is not favorable.
IV Crush Post-Earnings: If NVDA doesn’t move much after earnings, option value could rapidly drop.
🚀 My Trade Plan
Bullish Breakout Plan: Hold if NVDA reclaims $123-$129, targeting $141-$150+ before March-April.
Earnings Play Strategy: Hold through earnings ONLY IF NVDA builds strength into Feb 21.
Exit if $113 breaks below with strong volume to prevent further downside losses.
NVDA’s Daily & Monthly Broadening Formations confirm high volatility & liquidity expansion. The next major move is likely earnings-driven.
If NVDA clears $129, I will hold my calls. If support at $113 fails, I may exit early.
💡 Trade Details:
Position: NVDA $180c 16 MAY 25
Entry Price: $2.60
Current Price: $1.72
P/L Open: (-$85.66) / (-33.8%)
Delta: 11.36 (~0.11)
Theta: (-3.53)
Key Catalyst: Earnings on Feb 21, 2025
