Is Litecoin Truly Silver to Bitcoin’s Gold ?Taking an ultra-long term view of litecoin’s price action with respect to BTC, I have marked the following price actions:
1. LTC/BTC high at bubble top (~ 0.05 in December 2013, ~ 0.025 in December 2017……50% lower)
In both occasions, price was above the Tenkan, 1.9x above in December 2013 and 1.67 x above tenkan in December 2017.
2. LTC/BTC high during halving pump ( ~ 0.035 in July 2015, ~ 0.017 in April 2019……50% lower) On both occasions price broke above Kijun and quickly retraced.
3. LTC/BTC high during the “pre-megadump pump” ( ~ 0.01 in May 2016, ~ 0.008 in Feb 2020). On both occasions price peeked above the Tenkan and then retraced.
Additional features:
1. Notice how the Kijun flattened before “decision time” in Feb-March 2017, price was significantly away from the Tenkan. Both are true now.
2. The shape of the cloud looks the same.
3. Lots of charts say LTC will break its all time low just before “decision time”. The only reason I don’t believe that would happen is because of the multi-month bull div on RSI as shown in the charts. This is the only feature that didn’t happen in 2016-2017.
The bullish scenario is dependent on volume coming into LTC at the “Decision time” which is long overdue. Some may rotate into LTC because its one of the few alts that has not appreciated with respect to BTC. With DeFi losing steam due to ETH's ridiculously high gas fees, this may be possible. Last time this happened in March 2017 so we might see LTC shake off the bears again in the March – May timeframe. This is the time when I expect BTC to chill and reset (as shown in my BTCUSD idea).
Keeping these factors in mind, this should be the next long term target: Price moves just above the top edge of the cloud which is at 0.011. ~0.012 should be LTC’s top at the BTC bubble top. Coincidentally 0.012 is 50% of the December 2017 level (honoring history).
If history repeats itself, LTC will prove to be silver to Bitcoin’s gold. If it does not, LTC is just a case of failed narrative. I would like for history to repeat itself.
Word of caution: LTC is next to impossible to trade during bull runs. There is only one way to gain profits……average in near the bottom and show those diamond hands.
