AoA LUNA ChartHere is my set & forget example exercise for $LUNA of how to cover yourself & play both sides during what we anticipate to be a bearish move but with anticipatory retraces. Giving great detail here so you can also pull fibs & get comfortable with seeing what I see. This is a thought exercise to get used to asking the right questions to build your own setups. Take the time to pause between each question & answer it for yourself. I implore you to do this exercise & try & shoot holes in the analysis. Other than loading up my chart for S/R Zones, do your own analysis THEN review mine. Since writing this post LUNA has moved. My entries are at the bottom. You can copy trade but if you do STILL do your own analysis & make tweaks accordingly. Don’t worry, there’s still plenty of profit taking opportunity.
Fibs alone are not enough to make moves, but they are excellent at finding support/resistance/entries/TPs (NOT STOP LOSSES, this requires MS analysis). BTC PA will play a huge role in if this plays out perfectly (nothings perfect) or partially which is why I've set two different scenarios that play/protect for a 1) retracement up 1st then down, or 2) down then up.
Getting a better understanding of where there is untapped liquidity is also very important & omitted from this exercise — Try & do this yourself. My sentiment is there's more value in MMs ultimately going down than up, so my positions have reflected as such.
1. Why could I be wrong?
2. Why would they want to go up before going down?
I have a little notepad where I jot down levels & prices so my chart doesn't look cluttered & encourage you do the same in the future. For this exercise you can copy/paste this into notes & fill in each question there. I’ll share my numbers at the bottom for you to compare.
Things to look at: Fibs, POC, S/R Zones.
HTF Fibs
Pull Daily HTF Fiib from May 24th to Apr 5th --PAUSE.
- What do you see?
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? Jot it down.
Pull Daily HTF Fib from Dec 27th to Jan 31 -- Hint: Try an external fib. PAUSE.
- What do you see?
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? Jot it down.
- Why would I pull an external fib?
Pull Daily HTF Jan 31st to Apr 5th -- PAUSE.
- What do you see?
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? Jot it down.
1H LTF Fibs:
May 4th to 5th -- hint: Pull a negative fib.
- What do you see?
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? Jot it down.
- Why would I pull a negative fib?
May 4th to 7th --
- What do you see?
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? Jot it down.
May 6th to 7th -- hint: Pull a negative fib.
- What do you see?
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? Jot it down.
- Why would I pull a negative fib?
POCs, Pull Fixed Range VPVR:
Jan 6 - Jan 11th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC:
- VAH:
- VAL:
Jan 22 - Feb 24th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC:
- VAH:
- VAL:
-
Mar 4 - Mar 8th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC:
- VAH:
- VAL:
April 14th - 17th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC:
- VAH:
- VAL:
1. What are you noticing about the gap between these ranges?
2. Could you pull Fixed VPVR on other price ranges? Where?
3. Why would certain ranges be useful and others not applicable?
Note: I have 14 POCs marked historically on LUNA — you don’t need to do this at the moment for this move, but marking them has been very helpful for me to see where price will want to jump to next. Only about 3-5 ranges are applicable for this specific move.
S/R Zones 4H — I’ve attached my chart below to speed up this process. You can use this as a template for LUNA moving forward. HIGHLY recommend doing S/R Zones for all coins you’re interested in.
1. What should we be looking for with S/R Zones?
2. Is there confluence between specific zones & fib levels?
3. Is there confluence between zones & POC/VAH/VAL?
5. Based on this information & your own TA / MS Analysis, what would be some good Entries? TPs? SLs?
Longs:
Entries:
TPs:
SL:
Shorts:
Entries:
TPs:
SL:
5. What’s missing from this analysis?
Duracell D Analysis:
HTF Fibs
Pull Daily HTF Fiib from May 24th to Apr 5th --PAUSE.
- What do you see? 0.382 lost with average volume, price could likely retrace to 0.5
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? 0.5 @ $61.63
Pull Daily HTF Fib from Dec 27th to Jan 31 -- Hint: Try an external fib.
- What do you see? Price topped out at the 1.272
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? 0.382 @ $66.62 & 0.236 @ $57.83
- Why would I pull an external fib? Price went external to the fib, no coincidence it finds resistance at the 1.272. External fibs like to retrace internal to the 0.382 & 0.236 on LUNA.
Pull Daily HTF Jan 31st to Apr 5th -- PAUSE.
- What do you see? Price entering the golden pocket — if we weren’t looking at bearish structure all around, this could be a good bounce point for LUNA to continue upwards. 0.786 $59.59 is in line with @brb lowest DCA entry. 0.786 is a big retrace zone for smaller cap alts. LUNA is not one of them, but still worth noting.
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? 0.618 ($72.44) 0.66 ($69.23)
1H LTF Fibs:
May 4th to 5th -- hint: Pull a negative fib.
- What do you see? Support found on -0.618.
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? -0.618 ($72.45) & -1 ($68.70)
- Why would I pull a negative fib? Price in downtrend, likely to go external & negative/expansion fibs are used to find good TP points (or DCA entries).
May 4th to 7th -- hint: Pull a negative fib.
- What do you see? Price not retracing to the .236, downtrend most probable.
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? -0.236 ($68.29)
- Why would I pull a negative fib? Price in downtrend, likely to go external & negative/expansion fibs are used to find good TP points (or DCA entries).
May 6th to 7th -- hint: Pull a negative fib.
- What do you see? Price rejects the 0.236 & breaks 0. Downtrend most probable.
- What fib(s) is a key level for you? 0.618 ($78.48), 0.236 ($74.40), -0.236 ($69.85), -0.618 ($66.18) — If I were to aim for a retrace, the 0.618 is a good zone with confluence.
- Why would I pull a negative fib? Price in downtrend, likely to go external & negative/expansion fibs are used to find good TP points (or DCA entries).
These fib levels are important to me because there is confluence between POC/VAL/VAH & historical S/R Zones.
POCs, Pull Fixed Range VPVR:
Jan 6 - Jan 11th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC: $70.10
- VAH: $73.37
- VAL: $68.51
Jan 22 - Feb 24th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC: $51.81
- VAH: $57.38
- VAL: $47.98
-
Mar 4 - Mar 8th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC: $81.48
- VAH: $85.44
- VAL: $78.89
April 14th - 17th Range — Mark POC VAH/VAL
- POC: $81.48
- VAH: $80.37
- VAL: $81.96
1. What are you noticing about the gap between these ranges? Low Volume on VPVR “thin air,” leads me to believe MMs will want to jump from one range to another to tap liquidity, and essentially blow thru these gaps.
2. Could you pull Fixed VPVR on other price ranges? Where? Other historical ranges between $50s - $74ish
3. Why would certain ranges be useful and others not applicable? @Gwei Zee can talk deeper on this, but my understanding is that $LUNA took a large VC investment in the low $50s. Anything in this range or below would be a fire sale & opportunity for other VCs to come in. This to me means we’ve got massive support in the high 50s. Pulling POC zones above $78 can help come up with HTF targets for long positions.
S/R Zones 4H — I’ve attached my chart below to speed up this process. You can use this as a template for LUNA moving forward. HIGHLY recommend doing S/R Zones for all coins you’re interested in.
1. What should we be looking for with S/R Zones? Confluence between S/R Zones, POCs, VAH/VALs and fib levels to structure where price will gravitate towards & help me find probable entries, TPs, SL.
2. Is there confluence between specific zones & fib levels? Yes
3. Is there confluence between zones & POC/VAH/VAL? Yes
4. Based on this information & your own TA / MS Analysis, what would be some good Entries? TPs? SLs?
Longs: I front run above prices to ensure it gets picked up/TP’d. Entries have been set off confluence between POC/S/R & Fibs
Entries: $72.75, $70.10, $68.95, $66.75, $64.5, $59.2 (don’t have to use all of these)
TPs: $74-$81.4
SL: $55
Shorts: I front run above prices to ensure it gets picked up/TP’d. These shorts are if we retrace before dropping. If we end up dropping & filling the $68.95 long entry, I will cancel these. You can also stack these entries if LUNA starts to nose dive.
Entries: $74, $75.5, $77.21, $78.6, $81.48 (don’t have to use all of these)
TPs: $66.2 - $59.2
SL: $82
5. What’s missing from this analysis? Identifying supply & demand zones. Looking at macro/micro Top Trader Positions, Open Interest on TRDR or other sites.
