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LUNA2USDT trade ideas

Wait for itThis signal will be very short as it's very late in my timezone. First of all, maybe buying tons of BTC strenghtened UST but definitely didn't help LUNA. Secondly, you can see this old ascending channel I had on LUNA, it's still valid, I just added a new support which should work according with VLPR and that volume peak you see there in the chart. Now we can expect two outcomes: 1) if next daily candle will have an higher or similar volume and will keep going down it will mean that selling pressure keeps being high ==> support will break and we'll head toward 57 USDT area; 2) if daily candle will will have a lower volume, we'll likely have to expect a reversal, even though it could be a little one If we touch the channel bottom (57) wait to buy because if BTC goes below 30K we'll likely see again LUNA at lower prices. Good luck!
by Shotokhan
4
LUNA - Outlook ✅Let's see how LUNA is behaving. This is a 1D chart. (Long Term) LUNA also broke two resistance areas and landed on support. There are two possible scenarios: either the price will pull back and hit resistance or pass the support area and go lower. Two resistance areas are pushing down on price, and this support level will only hold while Bitcoin is going sideways. Once BTC drops, LUNA will drop as well. The RSI shows that LUNA is below the 50 levels, the center. If you want to know how the RSI indicator works, take a look at this Educational Idea. It'll help you have better readings: Current Market Price: $30.60 Let me know your ideas. Good luck.
by ShawnMCR
1
RSI & Fib analysis on LunaLast time the daily RSI was this low was late May 2021 when we retraced to 0.786 of the prior run, finding support here until going on an epic 2000% run over 10 months. Following yesterday's red candle we've bounced off the 0.786 fib of the retracement from said run, which coincides with a trend line I've had drawn in since this time last year. Reversing the first fib shows we reached just above the 5.272 at it's peak. Doing the same on the latest fib gives us a target of $614! Short term I expect a bounce to around $50. Will be keeping a close eye to see if we hold .786 and form bullish divergence
Long
by SlumberJack92
LUNA - Understanding the Lunatic Drop 👇🧵Trying to find the explanation of what went SO wrong with Luna i found the best possible explanation here : $UST fell to a low of $0.66 while $LUNA crashed to a low of $24.85 overnight. Lessons learned from $LUNA $UST disastrous collapse 👇🧵 But let's assess what actually happened. - $UST deposits on Anchor fell 43% in a day (currently $6.7bn) - $UST getting massively shorted + sell-off on Curve - LFG emptied out all its reserves to save the peg - Rumours that Citadel engineered the attack / Lesson 1: Death Spiral Illustrated perfectly by @ZeMariaMacedo , the design of $LUNA $UST is a giant positive feedback loop. This was the "flywheel effect" that everyone's talking about but very few actually viewed it as a double edged sword. A design that has a tendency to spiral out of control, even if it is to the upside, is a fundamental flaw. Most positive feedback loops are bad, be it in biology or engineering. Don't get caught up in the buzzwords like "flywheel effect" esp when things seem rosy. Lesson 2: Arbitrageurs can stop arb-ing $UST peg is maintained by: - Arbitrage - @stablekwon & LFG's deep pockets If $UST falls below $1 (e.g. $0.95), arbitrageurs buy $UST for $0.95, redeem the $UST and mint $1 worth of $LUNA. Profit = $0.05, $UST supply falls, $UST --> $1 But if $LUNA is in a prolonged downturn, the risk of holding onto $LUNA after minting is high. The arb profit might get wiped after minting $LUNA as $LUNA price keeps dropping, hence arbitrageurs might abstain and choose to chill instead --> stabilization mechanism fails Lesson 3: Over-reliance on Do Kwon & LFG Crypto is built on the ethos of being independent of trusted third parties. If $UST relies on the aggressive, interventionist measures of centralized entities like Do Kwon & LFG, how is it scalable? Imagine maintaining a peg by having the founder pump in capital each time shit goes south? Everything about Terra operates off the back of exogenous capital injection. Even Anchor's 20% APY relies heavily on the yield reserve top ups instead of revenue earned from lending. The idea that Terra is too big to fail is very dangerous and it's why many diehard $LUNA maxis got burned today. It's a house of card built entirely on trust, in a supposedly trustless space. Lesson 4: Cult Heroes Cult heroes in crypto have the same ending. Daniele Sesta and Frog Nation. Andre Cronje and $FTM community. Do Kwon is next... He is a great guy don't get me wrong, but never all-in your trust in a cult hero and invest on people Lesson 5: Stablecoin Designs Seems like pure-play algo stablecoins can't withstand the heat. Over-collateralized stablecoins are icky cuz they're like loans instead of currency and have a massive capital utilization problem. A hybrid model might be it... @fraxfinance Lesson 6: LFG Reserves Transparency LFG is transparent about the size of its reserves and you can track their wallets in real time. Central banks usually avoid disclosing the size of their forex reserves e.g. Singapore or they release lagged data Conclusion: A lot of trust has been lost today. It really goes to show the importance of a sound, self-sustaining system beneath the veneer of marketing gimmicks. Can $UST and $LUNA rise again? Definitely. But A LOT of work is needed to fix the fundamental design flaws.
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by FX_Professor
66