A Few Macro-Level Crypto Predictions For 2022At the end of every year, I usually write a predictions article for macro-level trends I expect to happen over the next year. 22' is the wildest one so far, even for me.
Full article here: mirror.xyz
The three pillars: economics (#crypto) - politics (#inflation) - culture (#NFTs)
Here’s a few things I’m expecting to happen in 2022 (this is focused on the US markets, as a disclaimer):
Inflation continues well into 22’ - a combination of supply chain issues, automation (those jobs aren’t coming back, folks), runaway government spending/printing, and the lack of significant response by the Feds (target interest rate 0.75% by the end of 22’ -- really?) will likely to cause inflation to spiral out of control, possibly to hyperinflation levels.
The spikes in inflation, low interest rates, and the lack of response from the government is likely to push more people into crypto -- Bitcoin first, then into Ethereum and other altcoins as people start to get more familiar with the ecosystem and industry.
“Urban flight” has been a concern for the big cities for years (even before the pandemic) as the gap between listed and “real” values of real-estate have been gradually widening over time. Inflation will make this gap much more apparent, leading to a big market correction in the US real-estate market. (Probably in San Francisco first, where the values are the most inflated -- the question is how much spillover there will be when the tide pulls out.) The Evergrande controversy seemed to have had no effect on crypto markets, in fact, real-estate and virtual-estate may be inversely correlated.
With Democrats in control of Congress and the presidency, these trends are not likely to ease -- much less stop -- until November of 2022, where they’re projected to cede their majority control in many swing and upset races. After Nov, concerns about COVID are likely to “disappear”, and the Feds may start to take more aggressive stands against inflation but by then the damage would have already been done. The government has been complicit in “cooking the books” when it comes to data points about inflation, home values, job numbers, etc. but the mask is likely to come off shortly where many incumbents are projected to lose their seats and have their initiatives exposed for what it really was.
Ethereum finally flips Bitcoin in terms of its market cap after the much anticipated ETH2 upgrade arrives. (Currently planned for June of ‘22.) Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere any time soon, but the combination of altcoin projects consolidating into ETH2 (largely due to high gas fees) and the slow-but-steady decline in market/production performance by the BTC community is likely to take its toll.
The NFT and metaverse ecosystems are rapidly evolving and are likely to reach some kind of maturation by 2022. What that looks like is unclear right now, but it is likely to have cultural implication/impacts as well. (Or to put it more bluntly, better pro-crypto propaganda.)
