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What now for the dollar after a poor NFP report?It is difficult not to link the bad US data to the impact of tariffs. Indeed, it certainly looks that way, especially given that the slowdown in jobs started in early Q2 when reciprocal tariffs were announced. Companies expecting margins to be squeezed by higher duties probably thought twice about hiring workers in order to keep costs down. So, the US labour market has been losing steam fast, undoubtedly due to tariff concerns. Unless the data surprises on the upside soon, the Fed may have no choice but to cut—and cut again. Against this backdrop, the recovery in the dollar is going to a long bumpy road. We noted the area around 100.00 to be resistance in the previous update, and that level has held, thanks to the weak jobs report (and ISM survey that was released later). The DXY was testing potential support around 98.95 at the time of writing. Will it be able to bounce there? Break that on a closing basis and next week could bring more technical dollar selling. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Dollar Index (DXY): Possible Reversal | Inverse Head & ShouldersThe dollar has had a tough year, but that might be changing. I’ve spotted a well-known reversal pattern: an Inverse Head & Shoulders. This pattern features three dips, with the middle one—the "head"—being the deepest. Now, the price has rebounded from the Right Shoulder and is heading higher. It’s approaching the Neckline at $98.7, which needs to be broken for a bullish confirmation. If that happens, the projected target is around $101.6, based on the depth of the pattern. This lines up closely with the previous high of $102 from May. The target area is highlighted in the blue box. However, if the price falls below the Right Shoulder’s low at $97.1, the pattern would be invalidated. Anyone else see this pattern? Could this be the bottom for the dollar?
TVC:DXY
by aibek
1
USD Working Strongest Month Since April 2022After a decisive sell-off ran for most of the first-half of the year, USD bulls have stepped up in July and DXY is currently up 3.3% for the month. That's the strongest monthly outing in the currency since April of 2022- and that's just after the Fed had started their rate hike campaign that year. It led into a massive rally that ran through September as the USD set fresh 20-year highs. The question now is one of continuation, and motive seems to be fairly clear. I've outlined the technical backdrop as this shift has taken place over the past month, as the Dollar held a higher-low last week and that drove into a higher-high this week. There's likely some short squeezing contributing to the rally but with U.S. data remaining strong, and inflation on the way back up, the rate cuts that markets had priced-in back in March and April for 2025 are now in question. This brings attention to the next major item - with Non-farm Payrolls tomorrow morning. On a short-term basis the USD move has already started to show overbought conditions on the four-hour chart, and daily RSI is getting close to the 70-level. So perhaps ideal would be a soft report tomorrow at which point a pullback could show. It's from that that we can see whether bulls will come in to defend higher-lows, and there's now support potential at prior resistance of 99.40 in DXY. If we do see a strong report, the 100 level is the spot for bulls to reckon with and at that point, we may be looking at an overbought RSI scenario on the daily chart - which doesn't necessarily preclude bullish continuation although it will make it more difficult to chase topside breakouts. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY at Its Most Critical Level of 2025 — Will the 100 Bank LevelThe Dollar Index (DXY), just like several other majors, is approaching a very important level. We’re now near the 100 mark, which is not only a psychological level — but also a key institutional (bank) level. There’s also a gap zone left behind that price is about to fill. I believe the index will stay in a range over the next 1–2 days as it waits for critical data later this week — especially Wednesday’s announcements and Friday’s NFP report, which could set the tone for what’s next. Based on current market sentiment, Trump’s remarks, Powell’s upcoming speech, and broader macro factors, I believe DXY has the potential to break above 100 and move toward 102–104, if that level is broken cleanly. Let’s also not forget — price bounced from a monthly demand block near 96, and we’re seeing weak support across majors like EUR and Gold. That adds confluence for potential dollar strength. 📌 What do you think — is dollar strength just around the corner? 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
TVC:DXY
by Mehrasfx
the retail trader outlookWe see that the wedge pattern has been completed and the bullish market is strong as the candles a huge, this is a high risk low reward trade as it clear and obvious to the vest public that the markets wants to rally. the role of the dollar price plays a vital role in this not happening as we see that the dollar has formed the yearly low as is starting to move up in an increasingly high speed suggesting that Gold is more likely to be affected by the sudden Rally in the dollar currency and the opposite is true given a drop in dollar.
TVC:DXY
by PriceAction_by_CeePointFx
Will DXY Get Supported With Fresh US-EU Trade Agreement?Macro approach: - The US dollar index has traded mixed since last week, pressured by lingering trade uncertainty and cautious market sentiment ahead of major economic events.  - Dovish Fed expectations and subdued US inflation continued to weigh on the greenback, while news of a fresh US-EU trade agreement and upcoming talks with China contributed to two-way price action. - Economic data reflected a resilient labor market but flagged moderating US growth, with investors closely watching forthcoming GDP figures and the Fed's policy stance. - The US dollar index may remain range-bound as markets await catalysts, including the Fed meeting, the 2Q GDP release, and key labor market data. Technical approach: - DXY surged and closed above the descending trendline and the resistance at around 98600, indicating an early signal of a shift in the market trend. - If DXY maintains above 98600, it may retest the following resistance at 99400, confluence with EMA78. - On the contrary, closing below the descending trendline and EMA21 may prompt a retest of the swing low at 96.60. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Dollar Falls as Traders Price In Two 2025 Rate Cuts on Weak JobsDollar Falls as Traders Price In Two 2025 Rate Cuts on Weak Jobs Data Introduction In a significant turn of events for the global currency markets, the U.S. dollar has taken a sharp tumble as traders brace for a more dovish Federal Reserve. A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report for July 2025 has prompted market participants to price in two interest-rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year. This shift in monetary policy expectations comes during a time of heightened global uncertainty, much of it triggered by President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, which have already disrupted the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a key gauge of the dollar’s strength against major currencies, plunged as much as 1%—marking its worst single-day performance since April 21, 2025. The greenback’s decline was mirrored by strong gains in rival currencies, with the Japanese yen appreciating 2.2% and the euro climbing more than 1% against the dollar. This article delves into the recent developments surrounding the U.S. dollar, the implications of weak jobs data, the Federal Reserve’s likely response, and how Trump’s trade policies are shaping the broader economic landscape. ________________________________________ Weak Jobs Data Sparks Policy Shift The July 2025 employment report came in well below expectations. Non-farm payrolls growth fell short, and revisions for May and June showed fewer jobs were added than previously reported. These figures suggest that the U.S. labor market is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, raising concerns about the sustainability of the post-pandemic economic recovery. According to Helen Given, a foreign exchange trader at Monex Inc., “It’s now clear that the U.S. labor market is cooling fairly sharply. There’s a good chance that Trump’s crusade against Chair Powell ratchets up further in the coming days, and there could be further losses for the dollar to come as a result.” The disappointing employment data has led traders to adjust their expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Futures markets are now pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, a stark reversal from the earlier outlook that suggested the Fed would remain on hold or even consider tightening if inflation remained sticky. ________________________________________ The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma The Federal Reserve now finds itself in a precarious position. On one hand, inflation has moderated in recent months, giving the central bank more room to maneuver. On the other hand, a weakening labor market could indicate a broader slowdown that might require immediate action to prevent a recession. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has come under increasing political pressure from President Trump, who has publicly criticized the Fed for keeping rates too high. Trump argues that rate cuts are necessary to support U.S. exporters and counteract the negative effects of his own tariffs and trade restrictions. Historically, the Fed has maintained its independence from political influence, but in an election year, the pressure to act can become intense. If the Fed moves to cut rates, it will be seen as responding to both economic data and political dynamics—a delicate balancing act. ________________________________________ The Global Currency Market Reacts The ripple effects of the dollar’s decline are being felt across the globe. The $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, already under strain from geopolitical uncertainty and shifting central bank policies, has seen increased volatility in recent weeks. The Japanese yen, often viewed as a safe-haven currency, surged 2.2% against the dollar following the release of the jobs data. Meanwhile, the euro gained over 1%, reflecting investor sentiment that the greenback’s era of dominance may be waning—at least for now. Emerging market currencies also found some relief, as a weaker dollar generally eases pressure on countries with large dollar-denominated debts. However, the overall picture remains complex, as trade tensions and capital flow volatility continue to weigh on risk sentiment. ________________________________________ Trump’s Trade Policies: A Double-Edged Sword President Trump’s trade strategies have been a central feature of his second term in office. From imposing tariffs on Chinese imports to renegotiating trade agreements with the European Union and Canada, Trump has sought to reshape the global trading system in favor of American manufacturers. Yet these policies have produced mixed results. While some sectors have benefited from protectionist measures, others—particularly those reliant on global supply chains—have suffered from rising costs and retaliatory tariffs. The uncertainty generated by these policies has also dampened business investment, slowed global trade, and disrupted financial markets. “The dollar had tumbled this year as Trump’s aggressive trade policies rocked the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency market, weighing on global growth outlook,” Bloomberg reported. Investors are increasingly concerned that continued trade friction, combined with growing political pressure on the Fed, could lead to policy missteps that undermine the U.S. economy and erode confidence in the dollar. ________________________________________ Market Implications The dollar’s recent decline has far-reaching implications for various asset classes: 1. Equities U.S. equities have shown mixed reactions. While lower interest rates are typically supportive of stock prices, the underlying reason—economic weakness—has investors on edge. Sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are expected to benefit from cheaper borrowing costs, but cyclical sectors may struggle if growth slows further. 2. Bonds Treasury yields have fallen sharply as traders anticipate rate cuts. The 10-year yield dropped below 3.8%, its lowest level in months. The yield curve has also flattened, a potential warning sign of slowing economic momentum. 3. Commodities A weaker dollar typically supports commodity prices, as most are priced in dollars. Gold, oil, and industrial metals all saw gains in the wake of the jobs report. However, demand-side concerns stemming from a global slowdown could limit the upside. 4. Emerging Markets For emerging markets, a softer dollar offers both relief and risk. On the positive side, it reduces debt servicing costs and can attract capital flows. On the negative side, if the dollar’s weakness reflects a broader global slowdown, risk appetite could remain subdued. ________________________________________ Looking Ahead: What to Watch As markets digest the latest economic data and policy signals, several key developments will be closely monitored: 1. Upcoming Fed Meetings The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet again in September. Markets will be keenly watching for any changes in tone or new forward guidance. A rate cut in September now appears increasingly likely, especially if subsequent data confirms a labor market slowdown. 2. Inflation Trends While inflation has moderated, it remains a key concern for policymakers. If inflation rebounds unexpectedly, it could complicate the Fed’s ability to cut rates without stoking price pressures. 3. Geopolitical Risks Trade tensions, particularly with China and the EU, remain unresolved. Any escalation could further destabilize markets and weigh on the dollar. Additionally, developments in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia could add to the uncertainty. 4. U.S. Presidential Politics With the 2026 presidential election campaign already underway, Trump’s rhetoric and policy decisions will continue to influence market sentiment. His ongoing criticism of the Fed could erode confidence in U.S. institutions, particularly if it leads to perceived politicization of monetary policy. ________________________________________ Conclusion The sharp fall in the U.S. dollar following weak July jobs data marks a pivotal moment in 2025’s economic narrative. With traders now pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers, investors, and political leaders. While a softer dollar can provide some temporary relief to exporters and boost inflation expectations, it also reflects deeper concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and the unintended consequences of aggressive trade policies. President Trump’s confrontational approach to global trade, combined with mounting pressure on the Fed, is creating a complex and potentially volatile environment for markets. As the year progresses, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s response, the resilience of the U.S. labor market, and the evolving political landscape. In a world where headlines can move markets in seconds, clarity, stability, and sound policy have never been more critical. ________________________________________ Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%. The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper. The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets. In summary: It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances. It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. It influences many other interest rates in the economy. Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%. 1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K) Above Forecast: If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts. Below Forecast or Negative: If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators. 2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%) Above Forecast: A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support. Below Forecast or Negative: Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn. 3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%) Above Forecast: A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer. Below Forecast: If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand. Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed Summary: The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage. Key Features of the DXY: Currencies included and their weights: Euro (EUR) – 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6% British Pound (GBP) – 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6% It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value. The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of theses versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar. The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 98.64 1st Support: 97.14 1st Resistance: 100.09 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
US Dollar Bottom: Don’t Rush InSince the beginning of the year, the US dollar (DXY) has been the weakest currency in the floating exchange market (FX). However, since mid-July, a technical rebound has begun, fueled by several fundamental factors, notably the Federal Reserve’s monetary hawkishness. But can this upward move be interpreted as a true annual bottom? Or is it merely a temporary short squeeze before a return to the lows? As high finance fundamentals swing back and forth, let’s assess the technical outlook for the US dollar (DXY). 1) Rate cut expected on Wednesday, September 17 – fundamentals in flux The recent rebound in the US dollar coincides with the Federal Reserve's firm stance in refusing, for now, to resume rate cuts, which have been on hold since late 2024. In its latest monetary policy decision on July 30, the Fed reaffirmed that no tangible factors justify a rapid rate cut. Disinflation appears paused, and the institution prefers to wait until fall to assess the impact of tariff measures on the core PCE index (inflation excluding food and energy). However, a major red flag emerged with the release of a very poor Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on August 1, reflecting a significant weakening in the labor market — a fundamental red alert! The Fed has made it clear that the evolution of employment will be a key factor in its September decision. A weaker labor market could accelerate a monetary policy shift, renewing downward pressure on the US dollar. 2) Technical analysis of the US dollar (DXY): short-term rebound... but no medium-term trend reversal yet From a technical standpoint, July's rebound is based on medium/long-term support levels that have so far acted as potential reversal bases. Can we legitimately speak of an annual low for the DXY? Has a major resistance been broken? The answer remains NO for now. Weekly and monthly charts do not yet show a clear bullish reversal pattern. Some bullish divergence signals are emerging, notably on the RSI and LMACD, but they remain insufficient to confirm a lasting regime shift. A comparison with the 2018 and 2021 lows is telling: at those times, technical divergences were far more pronounced and bullish reversal structures had been confirmed. The Elliott wave approach suggests a rebound is plausible within a corrective structure, but it does not yet guarantee a major trend reversal. Data from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report and ETF flows tied to the dollar indicate some hesitation among institutional investors. While short positions have declined, there’s no clear evidence of large-scale buying. In summary, the US dollar rebound since mid-July is real but fragile. As long as technical signals remain unclear and the labor market is flashing red, betting on a sustainable trend reversal remains risky. The annual low may be in place, but it is not yet confirmed from a technical, macroeconomic, or behavioral standpoint. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
DXY testing 100.00 resistanceThe US dollar index has risen to rest a key resistance area around the 100.00 level. Previously a key support and resistance zone, what happens here could determine the near-term technical direction for the US dollar. Key support below this zone is at 98.95, marking a prior resistance. Given the short-term bullish price structure, I would expect this level to hold if the greenback were to ease back from here. If the bullish momentum gathers pace, then 101.00 could be the next stop, followed by the recent high of 101.97. From a macro point of view, resilient economic data and persistent core inflation concerns continue to support the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy approach. Today’s core PCE inflation reading came in slightly above forecast, at 2.8% year-over-year versus the expected 2.7%. In addition, jobless claims were better than anticipated, registering 218,000 compared to the 224,000 forecast. The Q2 Employment Cost Index also surprised to the upside, rising 0.9% quarter-on-quarter. These figures follow yesterday’s stronger-than-expected GDP report and a solid ADP private payrolls release, further underscoring the strength of the U.S. economy. Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could have a meaningful impact on rate expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the importance of the unemployment rate as a key metric, so any upside surprise could reinforce the Fed’s current position. However, expectations are not very high for the non-farm payrolls report. Current forecasts suggest an increase of 106,000 jobs, with average weekly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month, and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. Yet, the scarcity of strong leading indicators this month adds a layer of uncertainty to the outlook. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXYThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on July 30, 2025, that it will maintain the federal funds rate at the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This keeps the rate unchanged from previous meetings, continuing a "wait-and-see" approach amid mixed economic signals. The decision was supported by a 9-2 vote. The committee highlighted that recent data suggests economic activity growth has moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and somewhat elevated inflation. The FOMC indicated it would carefully assess incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks before making further adjustments. There is no rate cut at this meeting, but the Fed remains attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate of maximizing employment and achieving inflation around 2%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for additional data, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, before changing policy. The economy showed stronger-than-expected second-quarter growth, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, contributing to the decision to hold rates steady. The committee's stance reflects caution despite pressure from political sources to cut rates. The next FOMC meeting after this one will be in September 2025, and some economists predict a possible rate cut then depending on economic developments. Powell's press conference and the FOMC statement will be closely analyzed for any subtle shifts in policy tone or outlook. In summary: Federal funds rate maintained at 4.25% - 4.50% Economic growth moderated but remains solid Low unemployment, inflation somewhat elevated Fed is data-dependent and cautious No rate cut for now but possible in September This is consistent with the ongoing approach since late 2024 of holding rates steady to balance inflation control and support for the labor market.
ICEUS:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub