DXY will remain on a strong bullish trendThe trends show off of time cycles for the presidential cycles how it all is aligned currently for a serious change in momentum.
DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
Dollar analysis based on Weekly tieframeAfter a year off trading we took out the weekly pool of liquidity, a large one, And with this we broke out off the weekly consolidation. We started consolidating after hitting the weekly range 705 fibbonaci retracement. It is clear dollar bias is bullish. with this said we can dive in to a more in depth analysis of dollar index. after we have taken out the pool of liquidity in form off some key equal highs we started getting some bearish indications. the buys are weakning and a bearish setup is starting the form.Some key details to further back up the bearish idea is that we have traded up in to a weekly negative breaker and fvg. Based on this what is the outlook for dollar this upcoming year? Answer is BULLISH, we continue bullish but first its time to retrace. We most likley will start off the next quarter going bearish in to the bullish levels. I am reconsidering the bullish breaker and fvg aswell as the ote. From here we look for bullish idea's again.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support: 106.72
1st Resistance: 108.52
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DXY Idea he U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week with a modest 0.2% gain, reflecting the influence of rising Treasury yields and persistent concerns over inflation, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and the policy proposals from President-elect Donald Trump. Although the index dipped slightly by 0.06% on Friday, the dollar remains on track for a robust 6.6% annual gain in 2024. chart The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.625%, marking its highest level since May, underscoring the market’s recalibration of interest rate expectations.
DXY - Possible Outcomes
Dear Friends,
How I see it:
Can the $ break through the "RED" overlapping resistance above 108.00 ?
** For this we need at least a Daily Body close above red zone
"OR"
Will the range be respected once again?
** This will be confirmed by a deep correction from here
Keynote:
Fundamentally the $ seems unstoppable at this point, yes.
Perhaps a possible rate hike on the Yen could trigger some form of correction.
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
DXY will stay strong this presidential cycleProof is in the pudding. TA shows what it shows. Dollar is dominant. Trump went into power.
We will see what happens.
DXY at a Critical Juncture: Will Bulls Break the Resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently consolidating just above the ascending trendline while approaching a critical horizontal resistance zone around 108.00.
The price action shows a contracting triangle pattern, suggesting indecision in the market. A breakout above the resistance could confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving the index toward 109.50 or higher. Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trendline and support zone could indicate bearish pressure, targeting the next key level at 106.50.
DXY - 4HThe Dollar Index is currently undergoing a bearish correction in the 4-hour timeframe. It is expected that after another bearish cycle, it will be able to resume its upward movement and reach the specified range.
Dollar index is in uptrend, shows 61% Fib retracementDollar index is in uptrend, shows 61% Fib retracement. The price is taking support of lower channal line.
The U.S. Dollar Index may be approaching a potential buy zoneHere’s a more detailed version of your DXY trading plan:
DXY Trading Plan**
Buy Zone:**
Enter a buy position around **107.900**, but only after confirming bullish price action (e.g., rejection wicks, strong bullish candles, or signs of support holding firmly).
Targets:**
- First Target:** **108.200** – A key resistance level. Consider partial profit-taking or setting a tighter trailing stop here.
- Third Target:**108.500** – If **108.200** breaks out with strong bullish momentum, hold for this higher resistance level as your final target.
Risk Management:**
- Stop-Loss:** Place your stop-loss slightly below **107.800** to protect against sudden reversals.
- Close Trade:** If the price at **107.900** fails to hold or shows signs of weakness, exit the trade to limit losses.
position Sizing:** Keep your risk-to-reward ratio in check, aiming for at least 1:2 (or higher).
What to Watch For:**
- **Confirmation Signals at 107.900:** Look for bullish candlestick patterns like hammer candles or engulfing patterns.
- **Momentum Around 108.200:** Pay attention to price reactions at this level. If DXY struggles here, consider securing profits or exiting.
- **Market Context:** Keep an eye on macroeconomic data, news, or events impacting the dollar index, as these can shift momentum quickly.
**Additional Tip:**
If the price nears **108.200**, move your stop-loss to breakeven or slightly above **107.900** to secure your position while giving the trade room to breathe.
TVC:DXY
Is the US Dollar Index Set for a Pause?Following the recent Federal Reserve meeting, where expectations for 2025 interest rate cuts were adjusted from three to two, the US Dollar Index surged by approximately 1.28%. But what are the technical scenarios shaping its next moves?
On the daily chart, the US Dollar Index remains in an overall uptrend, recently hitting a higher peak at 108.071. The daily trading range lies between 108.539, marking the higher high and resistance level, and 105.420, the higher low and support level. Traders might watch for a pullback near 106.015 before a potential continuation of the long-term uptrend.
On the 4-hour chart, the index is experiencing a general downtrend, forming a new bottom. A rise to 108.276 could face selling pressure, possibly leading to a continuation of the downward move. Key targets for this downtrend include 107.784 as the first level and 106.086 as the longer-term target.
However, the negative outlook on the 4-hour chart becomes invalid if the price breaks above 108.539, forming a new higher peak.
In summary, the downtrend on the 4-hour chart appears to be a corrective wave within the broader uptrend seen on the daily chart.
DXY next year.i told yall I am bullish, yes i'm still bullish. Here's what I think might be happen to DXY, be flexible to other pairs
Correction According to the behavior of the index in the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified. It is expected that the upward trend will continue according to the specified paths. If the 78.6% level is broken, the continuation of the downward trend is likely
DXY Trading plan Here’s a more detailed
CAPITALCOM:DXY
DXY Trading Plan:
- **Buy Entry:** Enter a buy position around **107.800**, watching for price action confirmation at this level.
- **First Target:** **108.000** – This is the immediate resistance and serves as a safe partial profit-taking level.
- **Second Target:** **108.300** – A key resistance level, ideal for booking the remaining profits.
Risk Management:
- If **107.800** fails to break out or shows signs of reversal, **close the trade immediately** to minimize potential losses. Look for candlestick patterns, rejection wicks, or bearish momentum as warning signs.
Additional Notes:
- Monitor DXY momentum and overall trend direction on the 1-hour timeframe.
- Keep an eye on related macroeconomic data or news events that could impact dollar strength.
USD Index Poised for Breakout: Key Levels to WatchTVC:DXY USD Index Poised for Breakout: Key Levels to Watch
Analysis:
Price Action Strategy:
The BOS indicates a significant shift in market structure, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
The CHoCH further confirms the change in market sentiment.
Equal Highs and Equal Lows suggest areas of liquidity that the price might target.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
The FVG area is highlighted, indicating a potential area of interest where smart money might enter the market.
The price is currently consolidating near the FVG, suggesting a potential breakout.
ICT Strategy:
Fibonacci retracement levels (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) provide key levels for potential entry and exit points.
The RSI is hovering around the 50.30 level, indicating a neutral market sentiment but with potential for upward momentum.
The MACD shows a slight bullish divergence, suggesting a potential upward move.
Buy Strategy:
Entry: Near the current price level around 108.149, especially if the price breaks above the FVG.
TP1: 108.705 (Fibonacci 0.705 level)
TP2: 108.786 (Fibonacci 0.786 level)
SL: 107.847 (Fibonacci 0.382 level)
Sell Strategy:
Entry: If the price fails to break above the FVG and shows signs of reversal.
TP1: 107.928 (Fibonacci 0.5 level)
TP2: 107.847 (Fibonacci 0.382 level)
SL: 108.705 (Fibonacci 0.705 level)
Buy Signal:
entry: 108.149
tp1: 108.705
tp2: 108.786
sl: 107.847
Sell Signal:
entry: 108.705
tp1: 108.149
tp2: 107.847
sl: 108.786
Follow @Alexgoldhunter for more strategic ideas and minds
Market Outlook for the bext 2-3 weeks. $NVDA predictionBreaking down NVDA. Also, taking a look at the RUT and how it can help be an indicator for cryptos and risk on.
The Relationship Between Dollar Dominance, Debt, and Deficits
The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency grants the United States a unique set of economic advantages and challenges. This "exorbitant privilege," as it's often called, significantly influences the nation's ability to manage its debt and deficits. Understanding this complex relationship is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the global financial system and the US economy's position within it.
Dollar Dominance: A Foundation of Economic Power
The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency means that it is widely held by central banks, international institutions, and businesses worldwide. This widespread acceptance creates consistent demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury bonds. This demand is a key factor in allowing the US government to finance its debt at relatively low-interest rates. If the US were to borrow in another currency, or if global demand for its debt were significantly lower, the cost of borrowing would likely increase, making it more expensive to finance government spending.
This dominance also simplifies international trade for US businesses. Because the dollar is the standard currency for many global transactions, US companies can conduct business with reduced exchange rate risks and transaction costs. This ease of trade strengthens the US position in the global economy and contributes to its overall economic power.
Debt and Deficits: The Fiscal Realities
Government debt represents the accumulation of past budget deficits. A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenue in a given fiscal year. These deficits require the government to borrow money, primarily by issuing Treasury bonds, which then contribute to the overall national debt.
While deficits can be used strategically to stimulate the economy during downturns or to fund essential public services, persistent and large deficits can lead to a growing national debt. A high debt level can have several potential consequences, including higher interest payments on the debt, reduced fiscal flexibility to respond to future economic crises, and potential inflationary pressures.
The Interplay: Dollar Dominance and Fiscal Policy
The relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is complex and multifaceted. The ability to borrow at lower costs due to the dollar's reserve currency status can, in some ways, lessen the immediate pressure to address budget imbalances. The lower interest rates make it less painful in the short term to finance deficits, potentially leading to a greater accumulation of debt over time.
However, it's crucial to understand that dollar dominance does not directly cause deficits. Deficits are a result of fiscal policy decisions—specifically, decisions about government spending and taxation. Dollar dominance merely affects the cost of financing those decisions. A government could run deficits regardless of its currency's global status, but the financial implications would likely be significantly different.
One could argue that the "exorbitant privilege" afforded by dollar dominance creates a moral hazard. Knowing that borrowing costs are relatively low could incentivize policymakers to engage in more expansive fiscal policies than they might otherwise pursue. This can lead to a situation where the long-term consequences of debt accumulation are downplayed in favor of short-term political or economic gains.
Potential Challenges to Dollar Dominance
While the dollar has maintained its dominant position for decades, several factors could potentially challenge its future status. The rise of other economic powers, the development of alternative reserve currencies, and shifts in global trade patterns are all potential threats.
For example, the increasing economic influence of countries like China has led to discussions about the potential for the renminbi to become a more prominent player in the global financial system. However, for a currency to achieve reserve status, it requires deep and liquid financial markets, strong institutions, and widespread trust in the issuing country's economic and political stability. These are factors that have contributed to the dollar's strength and are not easily replicated.
Furthermore, the emergence of new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies and digital payment systems, could potentially disrupt traditional financial flows and challenge the existing currency hierarchy. However, these technologies are still relatively new and face regulatory and adoption hurdles before they could pose a significant threat to the dollar's dominance.
Maintaining the Dollar's Strength
Maintaining the dollar's strength and its reserve currency status is a complex undertaking. It requires a combination of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to maintaining open and transparent financial markets.
Sustainable fiscal policies are essential. While dollar dominance provides some flexibility, persistently large deficits and a rapidly growing national debt could eventually erode confidence in the dollar and its long-term value. This could lead to a decrease in demand for dollar-denominated assets, potentially increasing borrowing costs and weakening the dollar's global position.
In conclusion, the relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is a critical aspect of the US and global economies. While the dollar's reserve currency status provides significant advantages in financing government spending and facilitating international trade, it also presents challenges in managing fiscal policy. Maintaining the dollar's strength requires a balanced approach that prioritizes sound economic management and recognizes the complex interplay between these crucial economic factors.
DXY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 107.800 zone, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 107.800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Watch out for DXYI put a DXY bias early on yesterday, check those liquidity right in NWOG. It might be a quick grab on liq and go straight up like my old post, or just straight down. If not just follow the old bias.
peace
10 Tips to Succeed in Forex Trading in 2025"Did you know the global forex trading market processes over $6 trillion in daily transactions?"
With such immense liquidity, forex trading remains one of the most appealing avenues for traders worldwide. However, success in forex trading isn't about luck—it’s about mastering strategies, staying disciplined, and preparing for market challenges.
Whether you're an experienced trader or just starting, these 10 tips will help you navigate the fast-paced forex market in 2025.
1. Develop a Comprehensive Trading Plan
Trading forex without a plan is like setting out on a road trip with no map. Before executing your first trade, make sure your plan includes:
Clearly Defined Setup: Understand what criteria signal your entry.
Entry, Exit, and Management Rules: Set clear guidelines for every stage of the trade.
Consistency: Stick to one or two strategies, and refine them through repetition.
A solid plan is your foundation for consistency and growth.
2. Harness the Power of Journaling
Journaling is one of the most underrated tools in trading. By keeping detailed records, you can:
Track Progress: Pinpoint what works and what doesn’t.
Analyze Mistakes: Avoid repeating past errors.
Understand Emotional Patterns: Identify how emotions like fear or greed influence decisions.
Foster Discipline: Create a routine that encourages consistency.
Reflection on your past trades is an essential step toward improvement.
3. Prioritize Risk Management
Successful traders prioritize protecting their capital. To manage risk effectively:
Limit risk per trade to 1–2% of your account balance.
Set stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected market movements.
Calculate lot sizes carefully to avoid overexposure.
Risk management isn’t optional—it’s essential for longevity in trading.
4. Make Backtesting a Habit
Backtesting allows you to apply your strategies to historical data and assess their effectiveness. It helps you:
Validate Strategies: Confirm they perform well under various market conditions.
Spot Weaknesses: Address flaws before putting real money at risk.
Build Confidence: See proof that your approach works.
Consistent backtesting transforms theory into actionable insights.
5. Commit to Continuous Learning
Forex trading is an evolving journey. Staying informed ensures you stay ahead. Focus on:
Market Operators: Understand key participants and their impact.
Critical Levels: Learn the interplay between high-timeframe and low-timeframe price action.
Mastering Strategies: Choose a few models and refine them over time.
By deepening your understanding, you’ll adapt to changes with confidence.
6. Keep Emotions in Check
Trading success often hinges on emotional control. To manage your mindset:
Avoid revenge trading after a loss.
Refrain from over-leveraging trades out of greed.
Take breaks to maintain mental clarity.
Reflecting on emotional patterns through journaling helps you stay disciplined.
7. Diversify Your Portfolio
Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Diversification helps reduce risk and stabilize returns. Consider:
Trading major pairs with high liquidity (e.g., EUR/USD).
Exploring cross pairs for alternative opportunities.
Balancing manual and automated trading methods.
A well-rounded portfolio is better equipped to handle market fluctuations.
8. Leverage Advanced Tools
Technology can streamline your trading process. Use advanced tools to:
Automate trades with predefined criteria.
Analyze trends with precision.
Backtest strategies to refine them.
The right tools free up your time and enhance your efficiency.
9. Practice Patience and Consistency
Forex trading isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. Sustainable success requires:
Setting realistic, incremental goals.
Reviewing and refining strategies regularly.
Celebrating small milestones to stay motivated.
Patience and consistency are the keys to long-term growth.
Conclusion
The forex market in 2025 offers immense opportunities for traders who are prepared. By following these tips, staying informed, and committing to consistent improvement, you can enhance your skills and position yourself for success.
Remember, success doesn’t come overnight—it’s built through disciplined efforts and continuous learning. Stay focused, trade wisely, and make this your trading year yet!
Dave FX Hunter
BTCUSD DXY / Powerfull Negative Correlation / Finding ConfluenceConfluence is the word of the day.
This example is a difficult one especially on the lower time frames because BTC trades 24/7 whilst DXY does not, it closes with the stock market. Thus there are gaps which you are not going to visibly see on this chart.
What I have marked for you though, color coded, each movement where BITCOIN moved against DXY. Thus it is anticipated when DXY goes down, BTC will move upward. The percentage depends on the market conditions and cannot be predicted.
The relationship then between DXY which is the market index that measures the value of the US dollar against all other world currencies creates a domino effect through the risk markets whenever DXY hits a support or resistance region of the map.
In this regard, spending time marking your chart on BTC is going to be an utter waste of time since DXY needs to be marked first and alerts set therein. Otherwise my friends you will be chasing your tail in many trades. BTC will hit a support level when DXY does not hit a strong resistance.
DXY hitting a powerful resistance at the same time that BTC is hitting a support level would give some confluence. Example now is on the chart where multiple examples are presented where DXY hit a major resistance or support level and thus the following BTC movement was the opposite to the exact level.
I would mark DXY first, and then mark JPYUSD, and then mark your stock market indexes. I cannot go into great detail at this time but what you will discover after a little bit of study is that markets move against each other or quite a lot with each other however it is the against movements where trades become interesting.
I am not a financial advisor, be safe my friends.
DXY Presidential Cycle Dec 2024As everyone is longing the Dollar, worth rehashing it is not so kingly under Republicans
what's ideal after christmas ? DXYI thought I put some bias at the beginning of the week but no, Merry Christmas everyone, The grace of thy Trinity save us all. I expect to trade in next year not this week, but if possible i'd follow this plan.
