PROJECTION FOR DXYPrice looking consolidate before dropping. Price has refused to close above the previously created high which means that price might continue the actual trend which is down movement. This means bullish for foreign currency pair
DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
DXY Major Support TestWe have a pretty interesting situation with fed fund futures moving all over the place. Lots of speculation about soft vs hard landing, speed of rate cuts, etc. I'm really not sure what I even think will happen to things like DXY and BTC in the near future, but I do know that TA says DXY should have support here and if it doesn't hold it's likely going to lead to more continuation down. This 100 area has been strong support since Feb 2023. This is the fifth or sixth test of this area in the last 18 months. Clearly an important spot. Either it's going to break 100 and accelerate to the downside or it's going to hold the current range.
This is both horizontal support and the first retest of the big downtrend breakout from the high in 2022 we got back in April. That also happened to be during a time of war escalation fears from Iran's strikes. Seems likely we will see at least some sort of bounce, but this could be the time it breaks and it would probably be a big time break. DXY has been in this range from ~100-105 for over a year. It's gonna move quick if it does break down, I'm pretty sure of that much at least.
[DXY] Entering the boxTVC:DXY is releasing the downward pressure & has now entering the box once again. My hunch is the price will go back & forth within the box, but if break to upside, then there's another resistance to overcome there.
MACD is still negative.
Still looking bearish, but no trend & seems tend to volatile in this box. Better stay out until there's more trend clarification.
Dollar Index (DXY) Looking for a Flat Elliott Wave CorrectionShort Term Elliott Wave View in Dollar Index (DXY) suggests that decline to 100.2 ended wave 1. Rally in wave 2 is in progress as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave (a) ended at 101.14 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 100.91. Wave (c) higher ended at 101.47 which completed wave ((a)) in higher degree. Wave ((b)) dips takes the form of a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 100.4 and wave (x) ended at 101.23. Wave (y) lower ended at 100.15 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree.
The Index has turned higher in wave ((c)). Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 100.54, and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 100.18. Wave (iii) higher ended at 101.39 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 101.15. Expect the Index to extend higher 1 more leg in wave (v) to finish wave ((v)) of 2 in higher degree. Afterwards, expect the Index to resume lower. Possible target for wave (v) of ((v)) of 2 is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). This comes at 101.4 – 102.1 area.
"Impact of Increased Supply on DXY Ahead of NFP Release.....The DXY remains within its bearish range as October begins, aiming to mitigate previous supply levels. The market is seeing increased supply pressure, which could lead to further declines as the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) release approaches, adding to market volatility and potential shifts in direction.
Is DXY Finally Bullish? 101.000 Broke with BULLISH Momentum..DXY is showing signs of pulling back after reaching the top of its daily ATR range, indicating potential exhaustion in the current bullish momentum. I’m anticipating a short-term retracement as the index begins to pull away from these elevated levels.
My focus is on a potential retest of the 100.800 level, which previously acted as a key support from which the market rallied to new highs. This area will be critical in determining if the DXY can find support again or if it will continue to slide further. Stay cautious of volatility and how upcoming U.S. economic data may influence this move.
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.512
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
** Dollar index enters bull market - Life cross prints **On the above 2 day chart price action has entered a bull market. We define this as:
1) The 2-day 50-day SMA (blue line) crossing up the 2-day 200-day SMA
AND
2) Price action above the 2-day 200-day SMA.
Both of those conditions have now confirmed. The Dollar index is in a bull market.
The previous life cross (idea below) printed in November 2021. The dollar index rallied 20% after the cross, I’m sure you noticed.
Is this another 20% bull market like 2021?
Unfortunately, it is looking that way. However much higher. Not only that but there is evidence to support a faster rate of change in the uptrend.
At the moment the dollar index remains in a trading range that began in November 2022. Markets are likely to remain unaffected until the index exits that range. A bull flag has printed since the trend reversal and life cross.
The bull flag extension would take price action outside the trading range. When this happens AND past resistance confirms as support… be in cash. No stocks no crypto no metals no animal spirits.
This bull market has a 1st target area with the index rallying to 130. Yes you read that correctly. A detailed explanation of why and when this is likely to happen is written elsewhere.
Ww
November 2021 Life cross
DXY Bullish: First Time Since December 2023 (vs Bitcoin)My dear supporter, it is not only Bitcoin that will enter a major correction, the SPX, DJI, NDX and all major stocks are also sitting on very strong bearish charts. The whole financial economy is about to crash... With that said, we look at each chart individually.
We are now considering the DXY, the U.S. Dollar Index.
We know that this index moves in an inverse faction compared to Bitcoin and the stock market.
This index last turned bullish in December 2023. After peaking in April 2024, it is going bullish again now and it has been producing a bottom formation for an entire month. This is a long time to produce a bottom which means that this is a strong bottom.
We know Bitcoin is bearish and moving lower.
We know of the lower highs, trading below MA200, the strong bearish volume and all the other dynamics; This signal is a major signal and the last confirmation.
We are now seeing the DXY go bullish and this in turn works as a bearish signal for Bitcoin.
The DXY can be read in many other ways but we are looking at its relation with Bitcoin because we focus first on the Cryptocurrency market.
The DXY is set to move up and will produce its biggest bullish wave since December 2023.
See the 'Related publications' for some of the charts that I see bearish, such as: SPX, NDX, DJI, NVDA & Bitcoin.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
DXY short sell ideaAfter wave count 1 2 3 4 5
and wave a b c
abc don't change character at the structure
then wave 1 2 3 4 5 again -- with fibo extension on wave 5
and short sell idea
proper risk management
consolidation break above high swing DXY 4H chart
Price has made a break above our consolidation high which is our signal that the LTF is bullish and looking to target the 101.905 price level our HTF swing high area. We are to look for any buying opportunities area the 101.016 which is the broken structural price area.
Levels discussed on Livestream (1st October)1st October
DXY: If price can break 101, could trade up to 101.40 (61.8% area)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6885 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3350 SL 20 TP 45
EURUSD: Sell 1.1075 SL 20 TP 65
USDJPY: Stay above 143.45, Buy 144.90 SL 50 TP 150
USDCHF: Continue higher, look for reaction at 0.8510
USDCAD: Buy 1.3545 SL 20 TP 50
Gold: Needs to stay below 2649 to trade lower, below 2630 could trade down to 2616
DXY BUY ANALYSIS FALLING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Dxy price has form a falling wedge pattern and there is a probability of going up if line 100.906 so going for LONG is needed with target profit of 101.401 , 101.884 and 102.446 . Use money management
DXY H8 - Long SignalDXY H8
There isn't too much to report on here for the likes of the dollar index, we have seen a bullish start to the week so far which was as expected, but we are still very much in the same range which trades between 100.200 price and 101.000 price, we really need to see a break north of this 101 level.
A break of 101.000 price, and subsequent surge towards 101.800 to 102.000 price is the next goal. Good start to the week thus far. Lets see if we can start to see these setups we have been following unfold a little more in our favour!
Weekly Outlook Sep 30 - Oct 4 $DXYTVC:DXY might have a short term relief rally this week before continuing its march to lower lows. Factors contributing to weakness can be economic data and/or FED being more dovish than expected
DXY to 100?! - Updated: Better than Expected PMI, Still Bearishintraday price action in DXY started off bearish with a series of lower lows and lower highs and the momentum continued until new york session.
U.S. released a better than expected PMI report and the market rallied 70 points!
if DXY breaks 101.000 the bearish bias is invalidated
gameplan: possible EU re-entry
Navigating the Downtrend: DXY’s Critical Battle Within the rangeHey Traders,
The U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) is currently trading in a downward trend channel, showing bearish momentum. However, the index is approaching critical levels where a potential breakout could lead to a shift in market sentiment. Let's take a closer look at the technical landscape and identify key levels to watch for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Current Market Conditions:
Trend: The DXY is trading in a well-defined descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows confirming the bearish trend.
Resistance Levels: The index is nearing a crucial resistance zone at 101.526, which also aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel. This level will be critical to watch for potential rejections or breakouts.
Support Levels: On the downside, immediate support lies at 100.762, followed by further support at 100.550 and 100.175. These levels may provide potential buying interest if the downtrend continues.
Candlestick Patterns: Currently, the price action is showing hesitation as it approaches the upper boundary of the channel, signaling indecision in the market.
Fundamental Analysis/Outlook:
The strength of the U.S. dollar has been impacted by several factors, including recent Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and mixed economic data from the U.S. While Treasury yields have been fluctuating, any changes in market sentiment around future rate hikes could provide directional cues for the DXY.
Additionally, movements in global risk sentiment, particularly related to major economic events, could influence the dollar's trajectory. With uncertainties looming, traders should stay vigilant for news around U.S. GDP reports, employment data, and other key macroeconomic indicators.
Targets:
Upside Target: If the DXY breaks above the resistance zone at 101.526, the next key target would be 101.751, which marks a significant resistance level.
Downside Target: In case of a bearish continuation, traders should watch for a move towards 100.550, with the possibility of reaching the lower support at 100.175.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: A recommended stop-loss level for a long position would be slightly below the 100.550 support level, around 100.400, to protect against further downside movement.
Position Sizing: Given the volatile nature of the market and the proximity to key levels, consider adjusting your position size accordingly to manage risk effectively.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a pivotal juncture within its descending channel/range. A breakout above the 101.526 resistance could signal a potential reversal, while a rejection at this level may lead to a continuation of the downtrend. Traders should closely monitor key levels, as the next moves will likely set the tone for the index in the coming sessions.
Sign-Off:
"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts."
I would love to hear your thoughts in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Thank you, and profitable trading to you all!
DXY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY!!!Price just reached a resistance level. Price may drop from the current price. A sell opportunity is envisaged as buyers gets exhausted at the resistance level.
DXY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY!!!Price just reached a resistance level. Price may drop from the current price. A sell opportunity is envisaged as buyers gets exhausted at the resistance level.
Dollar Index in an ending structureCall it diagonal, call it squeeze or whatever other name you want to call it, the dollar index is now quite clearly in an ending structure.
Will it break? Most likely yes, this week it should break out.
dxy is getting beairsh again 💀 boost and follow for more❤️🔥 a recent fake out breakout past resistance zone, now sitting at a trend support.. I wont be surprised to see it slice through trend support and head down to 97-100 targets in the next few weeks or so 🎯
Market News Report - 29 September 2024Due to an unsurprising rate hold, the Aussie was among the top-performing currencies in the major forex markets. Meanwhile, the dollar fell against AUD and several other currencies as the recent Fed cut continues to downplay the greenback.
Have any fundamental outlooks changed for this week compared to our last report? Let's find out.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Fed's recent historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut is still a hot topic, keeping the bearish bias firmly in place. The central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year.
In line with this sentiment, the Fed also revised 'dots' lower, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment higher.
Negative expected jobs and ISM services data coming this week will add further to the bearish pressure.
Despite these fundamentals, the DXY has yet to break the support area at 100.617, instead ranging around this level for quite a while now. So, be mindful of a potential technically-driven retracement.
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Markets anticipate rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar.
However, any potential strength in upcoming GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and jobs would make rate cuts less urgent, allowing for a USD retracement.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher.
Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 93% chance of a rate cut in October.
Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After recently breaking a major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
After a long period, we have changed the long-term bias to 'bearish' (from 'weak bearish'). The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time.
Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October has become more likely than before. There is a 7% chance (down from 67% of a hold (according to STIR markets). All of this accents the bearish bias.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Early last week, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates.
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Expect any shocks in inflation (or other data like labour) to send the pound lower.
Like the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. However, it is more bullish. We must go onto the weekly chart to see the next resistance target at (1.34825).
On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief.
Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike.
USD/JPY has long been bearish, recently surpassing (but not breaking with confidence) the major resistance at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 24 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation and labour.
The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having exceeded the recent resistance level at 0.68711. However, as it has yet to break the level confidently, we need to see how it behaves near the latter.
Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to economic growth in other countries.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) also revised cash rate projections lower, which signals a dovish move. The markets see a 70% chance of an 0.5% rate cut next month.
The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While the next target is at 0.63696 (where it is very close to hitting), the latter area is still worth considering.
Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. So, traders should be data-dependent.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 57% chance of a 50bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%.
Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness.
The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut next month.
Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it.
Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) this past week. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis.
We are seeing a clear range on USD/CHF in a strong bear move. So, let's see which side the market is going to incline more towards going forward (although it looks more south than north).
The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates.
Conclusion
We have kept our fundamental outlooks the same, except for the long-term outlook on the euro. Anyone trading the latter in the coming weeks should bear this in mind. Besides the US-related news, this week isn't filled with high-impact economic events, meaning less volatility.
Still, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
