dollar elliott wave countingdxy is falling since it peaked in Q4 2022
since their last 75bps hike dollar is constantly falling and stocks, gold, bitcoin constantly rising and making new all time high
wave W = wave Y
(equal in length, 100% projection for wave Y)
since starting of the year due to trump tariff dollar is falling
this is year in first half dollar saw biggest collapse since end of gold standard
now 100% projection target for wave Y at 95 area is big static support level
if dxy recover back to 100 area then this will be first sign of reversal
DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
Dollar Testing The Channel Support It’s already Friday and the 4th of July, so US holidays are here, which means we could see thinner trading conditions later today. Still, the overall tone remains risk-on since yesterday, supported by better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and an ISM services reading at 50.8—still in expansion territory. So, there’s some optimism in the market, and this could continue if we get a positive outcome on the tariff front ahead of the July 9th deadline.
On the back of strong economic data, US yields are moving higher, but the Dollar Index is trying to come lower. It’s currently retesting the lower trendline of a corrective channel—likely due to the strong rally in US stock indexes, which are keeping the dollar under pressure.
On the daily chart, the Dollar Index still looks like it could head to new lows, but that move may not come today if holiday conditions slow down the market. We might have to wait until next week for a clearer breakout.
GH
#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation I've previously described the correlation, and it's clear to everyone: a weaker DXY is positive for BTC.
📝Recently, the dollar has grown significantly and seems close to a local maximum (the chart is inverted). This demonstrates the strength of Bitcoin, as it was able to rise even against a strengthening dollar.
💡Imagine its movement when the new administration plans to lower the dollar price like they did last time. I think we will see a similar scenario as in 2017, when the dollar, from a local maximum, begins to provide a tailwind to the movement of assets that trade against it.
DXY (Dollar Index) longs to shortsThe dollar has been bearish for several weeks, but we’re now starting to see signs of a potential retracement due to price being in oversold territory. Last week, DXY reacted from a key weekly demand level, suggesting that we could see some short-term bullish movement before any continuation to the downside.
I’ll be watching closely for price to either push higher into liquidity or retrace slightly deeper into more discounted demand zones for a cleaner long setup. This would also align with my short setups across other major pairs, making DXY strength a key narrative this week.
Confluences for DXY Longs:
DXY has been bearish for an extended period — now showing signs of accumulation on higher timeframes
Price may retrace upwards to collect liquidity before continuing its macro downtrend
Recently reacted from a major weekly demand zone
Imbalances and liquidity above, including Asia highs, remain untapped
P.S. If price fails to react from any of my current POIs, I’ll patiently wait for new zones to develop and adjust accordingly — always staying aligned with what price tells us.
Let’s stay sharp and crush the week ahead!
DXY Is Bearish - But A Retest is Highly ProbableThere is no denying that the overall trend is still bearish. However, price is currently respecting an H4 demand zone - which might continue to apply pressure to the upside for a minor correction.
Of course, if this correction does not happen and the H4 demand zone breaks, then we continue to ride the trend to the downside and all the way to the next weekly TF demand zone.
#TheTrendIsYourFriend
DXYDXY price has come down to test the important support zone 96-95. If the price cannot break through the 95 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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USD Index preparing for fresh YTD lows?As shown on the daily chart of the USD Index, the currency has been biased to the downside for most of this year and recently met with 1M support at 96.80. This has caused the Index to modestly rebound and retest a 6M resistance at 97.39. Given this level's significance and trend direction, sellers could show from 97.39 and refresh year-to-date lows towards 1Y support at 95.67.
- FP Markets Research Team
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Move After BreakoutThe Dollar Index has surpassed and closed below a key daily/intraday support level.
After retesting this level, the price rebounded and breached a resistance line of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting a strong likelihood of a continued bearish trend.
It is highly probable that the price will soon reach the 96.43 level.
DXY IS BULLISH, SELL EURUSD, GBPUSD, WANNA BET?My last publish about dxy was stopped out but that doesn't invalidate the trade. We will still see a bullish dollar and bearish EURUSD AND GBPUSD.
SL @ 96.775
TP 1 @ 97.620
TP 2 @ 98.285
TP 3 @ 99.420
Use this trade to learn compounding and grow your account. Dont just take 10 pips and run off, once in profit,add more at a discount prices. The TP is certain
Enjoy
Follow me as my trades are market order, so you will see them on time and enter on time.
just slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLYjust slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLY\
bullish. so very bullish
let us know!
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DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 🎯
Technical Analysis Overview:
🔹 Trend Structure:
The chart illustrates a recent downtrend, which has been broken as price moved above the descending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal.
🔹 Pattern Insight:
A bullish harmonic pattern is visible (possibly a bullish Bat or Gartley), with the price reacting from the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone), aligning with key support near 96.500. The market has respected this zone multiple times, evident from the orange highlighted circles showing price rejections.
🔹 Support & Resistance:
Support Zone: ~96.500
Breakout Zone: ~96.985 (current consolidation near this resistance)
Target Zone: Marked at 99.456, which aligns with previous structure and fib projection.
🔹 Market Sentiment:
Price is consolidating after breaking the downtrend, forming a bullish rectangle (accumulation). The green arrows indicate bullish intent from buyers defending support levels.
🔹 Price Action Signal:
Formation of higher lows.
Break of structure and close above previous highs.
Possible breakout pending above consolidation box.
📊 Conclusion:
DXY shows bullish potential as it builds a base around strong support. A confirmed breakout above the rectangle could fuel a rally toward 99.456. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation candles for entry. ✅
Relation between DXY BTC TOTAL#📄 Analysis of three price charts and comparison between dates and movement
◀️ So far, the anticipated rise in alternative currencies has not occurred, and the rise that has happened is considered small and weak since the bottom of 2022
📄 In the first price chart, we see the movement of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
🔽 Each time the index breaks below the 100.00 level, it has a path to test 90.00, and this path has been achieved twice before during the periods of 2017 - 2018 and 2020 - 2021, with each time lasting approximately 320 days
◀️ At the moment we are in, there has been a break below the 100.00 level in DXY, and we are currently on day 84 of this break
⭕️ In the first break between 2017 - 2018, Bitcoin moved up by 2128%, and alternative currencies moved up by 3030%
⭕️ In the second break between 2020 - 2021, Bitcoin moved up by 608%, and alternative currencies moved up by 1668%
⭕️ In the current third break, which is still in its early stages, Bitcoin has moved up by 48%, and alternative currencies have moved up by 23%
⌛️ This period may extend into the first quarter of 2026, and it is essential to monitor developments closely with daily and weekly follow-ups
The end of the downward trend for the dollar index on the stockAccording to market structure, a new bullish trend is approaching. The stock market clearly reflects the overvaluation of its main exchanges. Everything seems to indicate that there will be news about the Fed's strengthening of interest rates. Something will happen. Long-term entries for USDXYZ assets, and short XYZUSD. MY POINT OF VIEW ON THE STOCK MARKET.
WHy is everyone Freaking out over the DXY !?!?!Here is a chart of the DXY. with a linear regression channel plotted over it. Yes, we are close to the bottom of the channel. But we are no where near an all time low. Far from it. The DXY may be due for a push, but even if it was to drop more it would not be that big of a deal relative to historical patterns.
Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Trend IntactThe Dollar Index (DXY) cycle, originating from its September 2022 peak, remains incomplete and exhibits a bearish outlook, signaling potential for further declines. The descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43 as depicted on the one-hour chart below.
Subsequently, the Index extended lower, forming a nested structure. Within this decline from wave ((ii)), wave i bottomed at 97.7, with a corrective wave ii rally reaching 98.2. Wave iii then drove the Index lower to 97, followed by wave iv peaking at 97.49. The final leg, wave v, completed at 96.37, marking the end of wave (i). Currently, a corrective rally in wave (ii) is underway, aiming to retrace the decline from the June 23, 2025 peak. This rally appears to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern, with wave a concluding at 97.15 and wave b dipping to 96.69. Wave c is expected to target the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a, projecting a range of 97.45–97.9.
Should the Index reach this zone, it may encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further downside or a three-wave pullback. As long as the pivot high at 99.4 remains intact, any rally is likely to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, reinforcing the bearish bias for additional declines.
DOLLAREXACTLY AS FORECASTED FROM MY WEEKLY DOLLAR CHART,ON STRONG NON-FARM DATA DOLLAR RISE TO KEEP GOING HIGER,GOLD SELL,AUDUSD SELL ,EURUSD SELL GBPUSD SELL.
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.3% 0.4% —
Non-Farm Employment Change
147K 111K 139K
Unemployment Rate
4.1% 4.3% 4.2%
Unemployment Claims
233K 240K 236K
Interpretation and Implications
Average Hourly Earnings m/m:
Rose by 0.3%, slightly below the forecast of 0.4%. This suggests wage growth is steady but not accelerating, which may ease some inflation concerns.
Non-Farm Employment Change:
The US economy added 147,000 jobs, beating both the forecast (111K) and the previous month (139K). This indicates continued, though moderate, labor market expansion.
Unemployment Rate:
Fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and down from 4.2% previously. This points to a modest improvement in labor market conditions.
Unemployment Claims:
Dropped to 233,000, lower than both the forecast (240K) and last month (236K). This signals fewer new layoffs and continued resilience in the job market.
Market Impact
Dollar (USD):
The combination of stronger-than-expected job growth and a lower unemployment rate is generally supportive for the US dollar, as it suggests the labor market remains robust. However, slightly softer wage growth may temper expectations for aggressive Fed tightening going forward.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
These figures reinforce the Fed’s “data-dependent” stance. Solid job creation and falling unemployment reduce urgency for immediate rate cuts, but the lack of wage acceleration may allow the Fed to maintain a cautious approach.
In summary:
The US labor market in July 2025 shows moderate strength, with job gains and a falling unemployment rate, while wage growth remains steady but not excessive. This mix supports a stable outlook for the dollar and gives the Fed flexibility in its upcoming policy decisions.