2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bull trap above the bull wedge as I wrote. Bears confirmed it with the close today. I look for shorts tomorrow and expect 2560 or lower to be hit tomorrow. Anything below 2540 would be a huge surprise and we could see an acceleration down to 2500. If bulls reverse this and trade back above 2610, bears will most likely give up until we hit 2700.
comment: Another spike and new ath but huge rejection. I do think the rejection was strong enough to expect follow through and test the lower bull wedge trend line around 2550/2560.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2550 - 2630
bull case: Bulls tried to break above the bull wedge and failed. Odds now favor a retest of the lower trend line (daily ema is also there), where I expect buyers to step in more strongly again. If bears somehow fumble this again, bulls would need a reversal of the huge 1h bar and get back above 2600. The longer bulls can stay around 2600, the better.
Invalidation is below 2540.
bear case: Bears want to keep the momentum strong tomorrow (after the 50+ point rejection from the new ath) and test down to 2550. If they somehow manage to break below 2540, we could see an acceleration down to 2500/2520 but I highly doubt that. Since we had a spike up and then a huge spike down, the dominant pattern is still the bull wedge and there is not much more magic to it than what I described. Bears absolutely need to keep it below 2600 to have a chance of lower prices.
Invalidation is above 2605.
short term: Neutral until bears get follow through below 2570 or 2600 is clear resistance now.
medium-long term: 7 consecutive months where Gold barely went below previous month’s low. Strong buying on the monthly chart but also the third push up we are currently in. I highly doubt bulls get another one so if it continues, it’s without me. I am waiting for a bigger correction.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: How could you predict those spikes today? You can’t. How can you trade them? Only viable could have been shorting the spike above 2620 but those are hard to take. You would need a wide stop and scale in. One time you short it correctly and make the trade of the week and next time you blow your account if you are not humble enough. Today was no obvious good trade to be honest.
