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ORO1! trade ideas

Gold Is Trading Near Record Highs. What Does Its Chart Say?Gold TVC:GOLD hit a record high recently on global trade tensions before pulling back following release of President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. What does fundamental and technical analysis say could be next for the precious metal? Let’s check it out: Gold’s Fundamental Analysis The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank recently revised its well-known GDPNow model for first-quarter gross domestic product to a -2.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, the bank also estimated Q1 GDP at just -0.8% when adjusted for rising U.S. gold imports vs. exports. Wait a minute! Do you mean that the Atlanta Fed runs two GDP models -- one that includes the cross-border gold trade and one that doesn’t? Yes, I do. U.S. gold exports have been rising because some of the world’s central banks -- most notably, China and Russia’s -- have become large net buyers of physical gold. Both countries are members of the so-called “BRICS” -- a group of non-Group of Seven nations like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (hence the “BRICS” name). The BRICS have often hinted at creating some kind of a monetary union that would produce a single currency to rival the U.S. dollar’s current status as the world’s “reserve” form of cash. This new BRICS form of money could either exist alongside each country’s own national currency or actually replace them (along the lines of what happened with the European Union’s creation of the euro). Now, EU nations participating in the single-currency zone have had to largely surrender their monetary sovereignty. That's something I really could never see China, Russia, India or Brazil being willing to do. That said, there’s talk of the BRICS creating something like the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. But unlike SDRs, the BRICS would back their new currency by a hard asset like gold. That could put the U.S. dollar on the defensive. Such a currency could become the preferred unit of trade for global commodities, or at least some global commodities between certain trading partners. Gold’s Technical Analysis Coupled with all of the recent global trade tensions, the central-bank purchases have created incredible demand for gold – boosting the metal’s price. Let’s the chart for check out Comex gold futures COMEX:GC1! going back to September 2022 and running through midweek last week: Readers will see in this chart of Comex front-month gold futures (presented in the form of one continuous contract) that the metal been in a steady uptrend for more than 2-1/2 years. I’ve captured this in a Raff Regression model above. After testing the model’s lower bound for much of late 2023/early 2024, gold recently brushed up against the model's upper trendline, then broke out. Not surprisingly, Comex gold’s Relative Strength Index -- the gray line at the chart’s top -- is now rather strong and even close to technically overbought territory (above 70). That’s historically where gold futures weaken briefly prior to pushing even higher. (Obviously, past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Meanwhile, the Comex contract’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence index (or “MACD,” marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) looks very bullish. The 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is above zero, as is the 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line). The 12-day line is also above the 26-day line. All of that is typically positive when charting a security. Also note that this contract has been above all three of its key moving averages since testing the 21-day EMA (denoted with a green line above) on March 13. Additionally, the contract has been solidly above both its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above) and its 200-day SMA (the red line) going back to mid-January. That sort of set-up will often slow down portfolio managers who might otherwise be thinking about reducing their overall gold exposure. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle owned gold ETF shares and physical gold at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. 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COMEX:GC1!
by moomoo
1
Consider Shorting Gold Amid Continued Volatility - Key Insights: Gold has been experiencing significant volatility, with a recent sell-off despite being in an uptrend. The current risk-off sentiment in the market is leading investors towards safety and liquidity, creating downward pressure on gold. Fed comments and inflation fears are strengthening the dollar, further impacting gold prices negatively. - Price Targets: For a short position next week, consider targeting a decline in prices. - T1: Approximately $2,950 - T2: Approximately $2,900 - S1: Approximately $3,050 - S2: Approximately $3,100 - Recent Performance: Gold’s market performance has been volatile, mirroring broader market trends across various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. The initial technical uptrend for gold was short-lived, with recent market conditions driving a significant sell-off. - Expert Analysis: Analysts suggest a short-term bearish outlook for gold, given the market dynamics and current economic policies. The stronger US dollar against commodities is expected to maintain pressure on gold prices. Although gold has served as a temporary safe haven, the rally seems unsustainable. - News Impact: The potential for a BRICS-backed gold currency introduces possible shifts in financial dynamics that could affect demand and valuations. Ongoing global inflation concerns and the dedollarization strategy pose further complexities, emphasizing the role of geopolitical factors in gold's market performance. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach and consider gold within a diversified portfolio.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
GOLD - Prepare for Extreme Volatility**Week of:** April 7–11, 2025 **Status:** Parabolic Phase | Euphoria Peaking | Structure Fragile --- ## 🧠 Thesis Gold has shifted from trending to **momentum-driven price action**. We're now in the parabolic stage of the breakout — where belief is at its highest, structure is at its weakest, and volatility becomes the release valve. This is no longer a trend-following environment. It’s a **sentiment-pressure zone** where intraday risk expands sharply. --- ## 🔍 Key Signals - Parabolic curve formation - COT shows aggressive commercial selling - Open interest is peaking with sentiment extreme - Weak closes despite strong highs = possible exhaustion - Structure thin above breakout zone = high whipsaw risk --- ## ⚠️ What to Expect - Intraday **fakeouts and rejection candles** - **Range expansion** in both directions - Emotional breakout chasing followed by sharp reversals - Market-wide volatility spillover if rejection confirms --- ## 🛠️ Strategy Guidance - Avoid breakout chasing — look for **confirmation first** - Fade emotional spikes only after rejection candles - Focus on **tight invalidation and reduced size** - If it holds and extends, trail stops closely — **don’t get greedy** --- > “When price goes vertical, risk doesn’t rise gradually. It explodes.” --- ## ✅ Summary Gold is in its most unstable phase — euphoria is priced in. Whether this is continuation or climax, **volatility is guaranteed.** Trade with precision, or not at all.
COMEX:GC1!
by pharyeh
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 6th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), nearing the end of phase 1. Market turbulence usually weighs on gold, so the sharp correction on Thursday–Friday, which wasn’t supported by any extreme or pivot forecast, didn’t come as a surprise. That’s what stop-losses are for. ⚠️ The working range of the long position from the March 3 extreme forecast to the March 19 pivot forecast in GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. The working range from the March 24 extreme forecast to the stop was USD6K per contract. Congrats to those who entered. Special thanks to Mercury retrograde, as the March 24 extreme forecast was its midpoint. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14.
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest
Gold Futures: Flight of the PhoenixCOMEX:GC1! Gold Futures Analysis: Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively balanced, with bearish sentiment materializing, if prices drop below and stay below the $65 mark. Gold futures, however, are offering more defined risk-reward opportunities at the moment. Our analysis shows a macro bullish trend in gold, along with price discovery and market auction trends visible on lower timeframes. On the 4-hour chart below, we observe a rising upward channel, with key levels identified and reasoning for these levels labeled on the chart. Key Levels: • ATH: 3201.6 • HVN (High Volume Node) for long entry: 3115 • LVN (Low Volume Node)/LIS for short entry: 3095.1 • Key LVN Support: 3003.7-3018 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation If Gold futures stay below the trend line that defines both our long and short trade ideas, the bearish scenario could materialize. For a short trade to be viable, we would look for a close below the LVN/LIS level (3095.1) and enter on a pullback, targeting the major LVN support zone around 3018.0. Example trade parameters for Scenario 1: • Entry: 3095.1 • Stop: 3125 • Target: 3018 • Risk: 29.9 points • Reward : 77.1 points • Risk to Reward Ratio: RRR=77.1/29.9 ≈2.58 Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal In the event that Gold futures push back towards all-time highs due to heightened uncertainty and a flight to safety, we expect initial profit-taking by shorter timeframe traders to provide a pullback. This could present a long opportunity towards the all-time highs. Example trade parameters for Scenario 2: • Entry: 3115 • Stop: 3095 • Target: 3200 • Risk : 20 points • Reward : 85 points • Risk-to-Reward Ratio: RRR= 85/20 = 4.25 Important Notes: • These are example trade ideas, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. • Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
Hilarious algo failImagine getting one hour to think about what to do after the Trump speech, and coming up with the idea to sell your only winner (gold futures) at market price immediately after the one hour break, lol. Probably sold it to buy more index futures, lol, morons. Apparent that is what at least one of the algos did. It looks like all of the algos are desperate for cash right now because gold futures are not tracking spot price. (I posted a plot) If you bought GLD like I did, look at spot pricing XAU/USD tomorrow, not futures GC1!. We're up over 1% now.
COMEX:GC1!
by hungry_hippo
Can Gold Continue Higher? Last month, I pointed out that Large Speculators started to close out their net-long positions in Gold futures, betting on the possibility of a reversal as they attempted to time the market turn at all-time highs. This behavior continued for several weeks, yet Gold’s price continued its upward rally, leaving many traders scratching their heads. What’s particularly puzzling is the lack of chasing in this rally, especially considering the massive price movement since then. This is particularly surprising because Large Speculators, for the most part, are trend-followers — and right now, the trend in Gold is unmistakably bullish. When comparing positioning in Gold to Silver, there’s a distinct difference. While Large Speculators initially followed the rally in Silver, continuing to buy as Silver lagged behind Gold, this strategy was much more reactive. Silver’s underperformance relative to Gold made sense, given that Silver is more crowded than Gold — meaning there’s less demand and fewer buyers. The key takeaway from this analysis is that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report can offer valuable insights into which market presents the better risk/reward trade. In this case, the COT report highlighted Gold as the superior trend to follow, especially for traders looking to capitalize on precious metals amidst all the tariff news and rising market uncertainty. By using the COT, traders can refine their strategies to focus on trends with more significant potential, rather than getting distracted by more volatile, crowded trades.
COMEX:GC1!
by Crowded_Market_Report
INTRADAY MOVEMENT EXPECTEDi can see still there is liquidity above at the poc of the weekly volume but if the price can cross up the level it can visit the next resistance above so if the price at london session cross down the value area i will expect visit the levels shown on the chart as support and make the rejection so we have to follow the plan and and use the levels on the chart risk management safe the profit secure the orders after the price move stop at break even we wish happy trade for all
COMEX:GC1!
by ConcordDeath