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WTI1! trade ideas

Can $80 Hold?Crude Oil (August) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 81.91, down 0.30 WTI Crude Oil futures struggled to hold footing Monday after Chinese GDP came in at 4.7% y/y Sunday night, lower than the 5.1% forecast and the lowest since Q1 2023. Although Industrial Production for June did beat at 5.3% versus 4.9%, it slowed from the prior month’s while Retail Sales also missed and Fixed Asset Investment hit a four-month low. The slate of poor economic data played into the “slowing China” narrative and left a difficult path for Crude Oil which has hit the lowest since June 26th this morning. U.S. Retail Sales data came in better than expected this morning, reinforcing the idea of a strong domestic economy and one that can support prices at the pump. Later today, U.S. weekly inventory data comes into the picture with the private API survey ahead of tomorrow’s official EIA release. Amid such, price action is testing a critical area of rare major four-star support at 79.90-80.18 and one the bulls must defend. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 81.47-81.70***, 82.21-82.39*** Pivot: 80.97-81.25 Support: 79.90-80.18****, 78.80-78.94**, 78.05-78.48***, 77.05-77.58*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CLQ2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
CLQ2024 LongLight Crude Oil Futures are showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. The price has bounced off a support level around $81.80 and is forming a higher low. The trend indicators show a mixed picture with shorter-term (50 and 100 bars) trending up, while longer-term (150 and 200 bars) are still down. This suggests a possible trend change. The entry is placed at the current price, with the stop loss below the recent low. The profit target is set at the next significant resistance level (trend line). The risk-reward ratio is favorable at 1:2. However, the score is 6/10 due to the conflicting longer-term downtrend and the proximity to overhead resistance. Traders should be cautious of potential resistance at the descending trend line around $83.74. { "direction":"Long", "symbol":"CLQ2024", "interval":"1h", "entry":82.44, "stop":81.80, "profit":83.74, "risk":640, "reward":1300, "quantity":1, "score":6 }
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ivvix
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern. comment: Outlooks and chart drawings do not get better than the oil chart posted below. Changed nothing for 2 weeks and still holds up. Next week could be the breakout for the bears. Decent enough rejections above 83 and even if bulls touch 84 again, I think we will trade down over the next weeks/months. current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel. key levels: 80-86 bull case: Bulls were rejected a third time above 83.5 and even though they are in control above the daily 20ema, the selling pressure gets bigger and at some point they want a deeper pullback to buy. Invalidation is below 81. bear case: Bears have all the arguments imo. Market at big resistance 84 after bulls having 3 clear legs up. Bears now want a deep pullback to 80 and then keep the bounce below 83 and form a proper channel down. Invalidation is above 85. outlook last week: “short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.” → Last Sunday we traded 83.16 and now we are at 82.21. High was 83.74 and low was 80.81. outlook was good for 200+ points. short term: Bearish. All shorts have stop 86.35 so trade small. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. current swing trade: Short since 82.58. Would add to shorts above 83.5 if we get there. SL 86.35. chart update: Nope.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
GET READY FOR MORE INFLATION BOYS- CRUDE OIL WILL GO TO U$ 200Hello Traders, I have to warn everybody what I have discovered because it will be bad if this happens. From what I have found on the charts #CRUDEOIL #CL1! #OIL will go to U$ 200 until OCT 2025. Interestingly, the same happened in AUG 2007, Stock Market Crash During the Great Recession. On Oct. 9, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its pre-recession high of 14,164.53. By March 5, 2009, the index had fallen more than 50% to 6,594.44. Will this lead to another Stock Market Crash and a Recession in 2025 - 2027? This I do not know, all I can say is that same chart pattern is confirmed. I have predicted the last BTC CRASH 2017, because I found the same pattern in the past. Well, I hope I can help some people sharing this. So, if you can get ready and prepare for it. HOPE FOR THE BEST- PREPARE FOR THE WORST. Good Luck and Good Profit
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn5368510
$CL Bull Trap?If history has taught me anything it is this... "They'll make the chart look as bullish as possible before the rug" And when I look at this chart, my immediate reaction is bullish. But upon closer inspection I see some warning signs. 1.) $85.9 seems to be incredibly important. More importantly, we are below, and failing yet another retest of it. 2.) I have this idea of "springboards," its the idea that below support and above resistance there is a number offering support/resistance in each retest. In this case $82.09. It's when this number ultimately fails that you get the bigger move. Ex. Sell $85.9 OR break of $82.09 The R:R is sharply to the downside. But timing is everything here. If wrong, $102.4 target, if right $53.11 target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mandelsc
Sell the News in Crude? Crude Oil (August) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.33, down 0.83 WTI Crude Oil futures violated the first of a series of major three-star supports early this morning at 82.04-82.46 but have so far responded to the next pocket in proximity at 81.66-81.71. Despite the constructive nature of recent price action, we are reducing our more Bullish Bias in order to see this near-term consolidation play out. While we remain bullish, at these elevated levels, we fear April’s technical resistance, a near-term 'sell the news' on Hurricane Beryl, eroding economic data, a narrative of rising production, and domestic political headwinds. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook is due at 11:00 am CT, the private API survey is released at 3:30 pm CT, and inflation data is expected from China at 8:30 pm CT. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 82.82-82.86**, 83.16-83.45**, 83.69-83.88***, 84.38-84.52***, 85.27*** Pivot: 82.04-82.46*** Support: 81.66-81.71***, 80.97-81.21***, 79.90-80.18**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Good follow through by the bears and a clear break below the bull channel. If we continue down from here, I would be surprised. More likely is another retest from the bulls to 83/84. Selling is strong enough that we have a decent chance of 84.52 being the high of this bull trend that’s now over and we are in a trading range at the highs. Odds strongly favor the bears since we are in a huge triangle. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 84 bull case: Bulls failed at the 1h 20ema multiple times today but held it above 82 which means we are forming a smaller descending triangle which will likely break out early tomorrow. Retest of the bull channel to 83.5 is reasonable. Invalid below 82. bear case: Bears showed strength by consecutive decent bear bars on the daily chart. They want the 1h 20ema to be resistance as long as possible and their next target is the daily 20ema at 81.2ish which is also the recent trading range and a magnet. short term: Two bear trend lines which can both work and we will only find out tomorrow. Market should stay below 82.9 if bears are in control. If bulls break above, can see 83.4/84 again. So looking for shorts near 1h 20ema and upper bear trend lines. Long scalps above 83. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: Small short initiated and will add on higher if necessary. Plan to hold this to at least 76 with profit taking/adding on in between. trade of the day: Look at all the bars with a tail above 82.7. That’s more than enough reason and time to place some shorts because market is screaming at you, that bulls are not strong enough above 82.7.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bears last stand is 84 and my choppy outlook was drawn 3 or 4 weeks ago. My outlook is the same as last weeks. More sideways movement under 84 needed until bears give up or bulls strongly break above again and we will then most certainly see 86 fast and decent chance this time they get to 90 again. I lean slightly bearish. Quote from last week: comment: High of the week was 82.72, so 22 ticks above my lower bull target. Most was said in my tl;dr. Bulls trying to break above 82 but can’t a one single daily close above that price. Market will also break out soon. After last week, I see this as 50/50 who get’s the breakout. comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern. current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel. key levels: 80-86 bull case: Another breakout for the bulls but the volume is increasing and the selling pressure is building. If bulls can keep this long enough above 80, bears might give up again and the trend could continue but it’s hard to argue after 3 pushes up and the clear triangle pattern on higher tf. Invalidation is below 81.3. bear case: Bears want this to be a lower high since market has been doing this for 2 years now. April high was 86.27 so there is your sl if you want to short this. I do think bears want to break the bull channel first, put in another retest of 84ish for a tripple top or head & shoulders before they sell more aggressively again. They see this bull trend with the 3 pushes as done and now they want to get back below 75 again. You play the best pattern on the highest time frame because the higher the time frame the more reliable the pattern is. If multiple pattern on multiple tf align, even better. On a 1h chart we are also forming bull wedges which can break to the downside any day now. Invalidation is above 86.27. outlook last week: “short term: Still slightly favoring the bulls because of the highers highs and higher lows but breakout above need to happen next week. Once we hit 83/84, I think next 10 points will be made to the down side again.” → Last Sunday we traded 81.54 and now we are at 83.16. High was 84.52 and I gave you 84. +246 if you will. Hope you made some. short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. current swing trade: Will short once we break the bull channel and we see decent selling pressure. chart update: Removed the bull wave series but all bearish patterns were drawn 2-3 weeks ago.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil Prices Forecast: Key Supply Zone and Potential DowntrendThis week, oil prices are poised to make a move towards the supply zone between $84.14 and $84.50 per barrel. However, this level is likely to pose significant resistance, making it challenging for prices to sustain an upward trajectory. Here’s a detailed outlook based on current market dynamics and my trading strategy. OPEC+ Production Cuts and Market Impact Early June saw OPEC+ extend its 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) production cuts to the end of 2025. Additionally, another 2.2 million bpd cut was announced, extending to the end of September 2024. Together, these cuts comprise around 5-6% of global oil demand. Despite these measures, Brent oil prices have struggled to break the key $90 per barrel level since last September. This signals that even with significant production cuts, the market faces substantial resistance to higher prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia's Fiscal Challenges The two major players in the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are under considerable fiscal pressure. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has a fiscal breakeven oil price of $96.17 per barrel, and it is battling a projected budget deficit this year. This financial strain is exacerbated by historical overspending on social and infrastructure projects, as well as hefty dividend commitments from the Aramco IPO. Technical Analysis: Supply Zone Resistance With oil prices heading towards the supply zone of $84.14 to $84.50, traders should be prepared for potential selling opportunities. At this zone, prices are expected to encounter strong resistance, making it a critical area to monitor for reversals. Trading Strategy: Short Positions and Downtrend Potential In my trading strategy, I will be looking for new supply zones on the 5-minute timeframe within the $84.14 to $84.50 range. This short-term analysis will help identify precise entry points for short positions. Given the anticipated resistance at this supply zone, a significant push to the downside is expected. Targeting 180 Ticks Downside Move If we catch the right move, there is potential to capture at least 180 ticks to the downside. The substantial fiscal pressures on major oil producers, combined with the technical resistance in the supply zone, support a bearish outlook once prices reach this level. Conclusion This week, watch for oil prices to test the supply zone between $84.14 and $84.50 per barrel. Prepare for potential short-selling opportunities in this range, as resistance is likely to trigger a substantial downward move. By leveraging short-term supply zone analysis, traders can position themselves to benefit from an anticipated decline, potentially capturing significant downside ticks. Stay tuned to market developments and adjust your strategies accordingly to make the most of these trading opportunities.
NYMEX:MCLQ2024Short
by yojavi
Bold prediction: Short CL??Oil has been ripping. That is clear. But has it ripped too much? Election coming. No way Biden doesn't do whatever he can to make oil cheap before election. Currently at a triangle resistance hidden as a downtrend breakout. Strong resistance at $84. 2 of past 3 days saw some selling pressure. Expectation: If we start to break down I'm looking for $79-$80 for first target. Breakout of $84 with volume could hit $88. Must be aware of price action going into these levels. Trading levels alone is not enough. Trade carefully friends.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BartChartski