CL Futures - Bid spots to watch for 21- Jan - 2025CL got rejected at major resistance which is weekly 200 moving average , Currently 200 Daily moving average is the key zone to retest , Looking to add potential Bid at this zone
WTI1! trade ideas
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 71 - 75.5
bull case: Bears are not getting anywhere with this weak selling. It does look much more like a pull-back that will be bought soon than a bear trend that will accelerate. Bulls want to keep it above 76 and try again to get above 80. They are trading far above the daily ema and inside a perfect bull channel. They have all the arguments to buy this tomorrow and make bears cover again. 75 is a possibility but I would be very cautious with longs below.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: 3 consecutive daily bear bars but they are overlapping and market is still above 76. The next touch of this bull channel will most likely be bought and bears know it. Best they can hope for here is to stay below 77 and go sideways for longer.
Invalidation is above 80.5.
short term: Looking for longs around 76 for target 80.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Market did not find acceptance above 77.4 today and the sell-off at 2 p.m. cet was strong enough to just short it but it was going fast and I also missed it because I’m dumb.
CL Bullish and Bearish Plays for the WeekBULLISH PLAY (IMMEDIATE POST-CPI TRADE ONLY)
*VALID ONLY TODAY FOLLOWING CPI NEWS RELEASE*
Entry Conditions:
- Wait for sell-side liquidity raid near 77.20 during CPI volatility
- Look for deep retracement as entry opportunity
- Confirm failed breakdown with reversal into trading range
Target: July 2024 high (79.67 area)
*This bullish setup expires at end of today's session - do not take this trade after today's CPI volatility settles*
Note: The bullish scenario is specifically designed to capitalize on potential CPI news volatility today only, while the bearish scenario is structured as an end-of-week trade setup.
BEARISH PLAY (END OF WEEK TRADE)
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT:
- 77.20 sell-side liquidity MUST remain INTACT for trade to be valid
Entry Conditions:
- Wait for upward expansion following CPI news
- Time entry for end-of-week (Thursday/Friday Ideal) selling pressure
- Look for market structure break as entry trigger
- VOID if 77.20 gets raided
Target: 77.00 area
Crude Oil - Moving to light resistance, so we can move up?Hi guys, we are looking into Crude Oil today again, looking into retesting the weak resistnce level which was recently formulated, we have a slight Ascending Channel which has been formulated looking to break it, then we will see what would be next
Entry: 77.50
Target 78.60
As always my friends happy trading!
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#202503 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 4th consecutive bullish weekly bar but the tails above are getting bigger (weekly chart). The volume is also increasing, which could be a sign of more participants thinking it’s a good time to scale into shorts and out of longs. If there would be a run on oil because macro reason xyz, volume would have been bigger already is what I reckon. Does not matter much though, because bears need to do more before we can turn more bearish. First decent pull-back will be bought, so it will most likely be better to look for longs after a pull-back than to try and pick the top.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 77 - 81
bull case: Bulls are in full control and want to break above the 2024-04 high 80.03. We are close enough to expect market to get there soon. Problem for the bulls is, this rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The last time we printed 5 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart was mid of 2023. For now we can’t expect to see bigger bearish price action because bulls have been making money buying every small dip.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears have made the first lower high which now looks like an ugly head & shoulders. I think the odds of this breaking down for a measured move to sub 72 are very low. Much more likely is that bears would exit fast on another push up and try again to keep it below 80. The current lower bull channel line runs through 75ish and it’s reasonable to expect a bigger pull-back over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is above 80.
short term: Bullish for 80 and then looking to short for a bigger pull-back down to the bull channel. A strong close above 80 would change my mind.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential bear targets.
Crude OIL SHORT Today Ran For +4R BreakdownNYMEX:CL1!
"Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos
Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt Stop / +4R Run... Well Done!!
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL_F) Impulsive Rally in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave view in Light Crude Oil (CL_F) suggests cycle from 12.6.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 12.6.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 71.44. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 68.42 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The instrument extends higher in wave ((iii)) with subdivision of an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 69.94 and wave (ii) ended at 68.59.
Wave (iii) higher ended at 75.29 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 72.84. Final leg wave (v) ended at 79.27 and this completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. From there, the instrument pullback in wave ((iv)) which ended at 77.24. Wave ((v)) higher is in progress and wave (i) of ((v)) should end soon. It should then pullback in wave (ii) to correct the rally from 77.24 low before extending higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 68.36 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside. Once wave ((v)) is complete, the instrument should correct cycle from 12.6.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it turns higher again.
Crude Oil LongWTI's price broke through the 200-day MA. In the next few days, we should also see the breakup in the 50-day MA versus the 100-day MA.
Energy stocks will benefit from the price swing in Q1 2025. Look at XOM, BKR, CVX
The Chinese government's introduction of ultra-long special government bonds to boost infrastructure spending and consumer demand has heightened expectations for increased oil consumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ have continued their production cuts, tightening supply. Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for February by $0.60 per barrel.
The outlook for February 2025 is bullish for oil. We should expect continuing supply constraints. OPEC+ production cuts and sanctions on major oil producers like Iran and Russia are expected to persist, maintaining a tight supply environment.
The incoming Trump administration's potential tightening of sanctions on Iran could significantly reduce Iranian crude exports, further constraining supply.
Investment Opportunity: Long Crude Oil in the Coming Week
- Key Insights: The crude oil market is exhibiting a bullish trend, with
significant momentum driven by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand.
Analyzing current resistance levels indicates a favorable outlook for
traders considering long positions, especially with oil prices testing
critical thresholds around $78.60 and $79.50.
- Price Targets: For next week, we recommend a focus on the following targets:
T1 at $80.50 and T2 at $82.00. In terms of stop levels to mitigate risk, set
S1 at $76.00 and S2 at $74.00,
- Recent Performance: Crude oil has recently gained traction, trading around
$78.15 after touching resistance levels between $77 and $80. The market has
seen notable developments, including increased momentum from colder weather
and geopolitical tensions that have weathered traditional equity
performance.
- Expert Analysis: Experts suggest that current geopolitical risks, particularly
surrounding sanctions on Russia and instability in Iran, are likely to
sustain upward pressure on oil prices. Many analysts are optimistic,
predicting a potential bullish commodity cycle that could see prices soar
significantly in the next few years.
- News Impact: Recent sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on Russian
oil companies have triggered expectations of a constrained oil supply.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions regarding Iran could further
challenge stability in oil production. Colder weather patterns are adding to
upward demand pressures, creating a complex but opportunistic market
environment for crude oil traders.
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above.
Invalidation is below 72.6.
bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again.
Invalidation is above 80.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it.
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook.
short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
Oil is heading for $80Light Crude Oil (CL) is showing bullish signs after the confirmation of an upside break of the long term downtrend line “K” at $73.
Now the contract is hitting the resistance of $76 where if it breaks to the upside then the space that can be stretched "unfortunately" goes up to $80.
Above that, inflation alarm bells will start to ring. It is a thorny element that can spoil the upward momentum of the markets since it will make central bankers more frugal in their decisions to further reduce interest rates.
For something to change here, the contract will have to declare a strong weakness of permeability at the level of $76 to $77.
CrudeOil climax rise or more to blast upsidePrice chart read from 2022 High to recent low. All depiction marked as per #ElliottWave, #Supplu-Demand & #Liquidity concept. Price action of 1-2 week will be clear indication of which way its going to unfold. More Bullish if closing above given level or its going to form a important top.
2025-01-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Bearish but only slightly and probably better after a lower high above 74. Bears broke the bull trend line and made new lows. 75 got 2 big rejections and we either continue down or we do a lower high below 75.29. Selling below 73.5 has not been profitable for a week, so don’t try be the first. On the daily chart it’s still just a minor two-legged correction, so it’s not the best short to take. Bears probably want better confirmation. Their first target below 73 is 72 and then likely the daily 20ema around 71.5.
comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 71 - 75.5
bull case: Bulls are still in control and making higher highs and higher lows. They want a daily close above 75 to retest the October high 77.38. They see a two-legged correction on the daily chart and that is a buy signal in a bull trend.
Invalidation is below 71.
bear case: Bears producing amazing bear bars above 74.5 but the follow through is terrible. They need lower lows below 72.7 to trap late bulls. The volume increase on the selling is good for them but until the trading range 72.7 - 75.3 is broken, bulls remain in control or market is at least neutral inside that range. I do think the overall structure on the daily/weekly time frames is in favor of the bears and once they get below 72.7, it’s a sell signal if you can hold a swing short with a wide stop. Next target is 72 and then 71.5ish (daily 20ema).
Invalidation is above 75.3.
short term: Neutral inside range and bearish below 72.7 or above 75 for a swing short.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 75 again was decent for 200 ticks.
CRUDEOIL MCX - Fibonacci LEVELSIn Chart Following points are explained -
1. Fibonacci Plotting
2. Trend analysis.
Conclusion -
Daily Chart - Downtrend
1 hr time frame - Reversal of uptrend seen
This chart is only for educational purpose and this is not a buy sell recommendations
Acw oil crash 2025 COVID CRASH 2.0Using acw bar patterns
Price structure
News similarities
We note that price behaviour in 2025 hints a lockdown in the upcoming months
We note that oil demand could dramatically decrease thus promoting a crash in the oil futures market which will then lead to the global markets selling off heavily
We see a bounce due in the 2/3 week of April around the 20-21st of April
Closing CL Long idea early under the down trend line. The CL daily time frame has an up Fibonacci
with an extension price point 78.92 about
+451 ticks above the market. However the
market is near the daily down trend line
which could push the market back down.
The last three times the market was pushed
bearish, the market closed with a long wick
towards the north. It will be a good idea to close
the current long idea and wait for the market to
break and close above the down trend line or to
pull back giving a lower price before looking for
a new long idea.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in
the buy zone.
STOP: 64.60
LIMIT: 78.92
CL1! Scenario 2.1.2025 The price has currently broken through one of the main resistances and we have oil at 73 and then I have two scenarios: either the price does not break through the support at 72.5 and goes up, but I would like to see an sfp below the low, if we were to consider a short, I would like an sfp above the high, then there would be a potential entry.
Crude Opportunity Part 2In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used.
In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow time line.
So clearly, the recent breakout is projected to have something similar in terms of a bullish rally.
This is in line with the weekly outlook.
Together with technical indicators like the RoVD, as well as the MACD where there is a clear breakout support, Crude appears to have much upside potential. However, there is no rush as it just met the trendline resistance and is expected to pull back a bit to retest and breakout again for the longer term.
Overall, this looks not like a spike out of fear, but one spurred by inflation. This is in the MUST WATCH list for sure and an accumulation plan should be in place.
A projected path is drawn as a guide and the target for Crude is 100-105.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Bullish on Crude Oil: Targeting Higher Prices Next Week
- Key Insights: Crude oil is showing bullish momentum with strong market
sentiment favoring long positions. Key support levels are around $73 and
$72, while resistance levels are at $74.26 and $75.53. Recent trends
indicate that the energy sector is outperforming others, driven by rising
oil prices and investment optimism.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1 = $75.53, T2 = $78.46
- Stop levels: S1 = $71.50, S2 = $70.00
- Recent Performance: The price of crude oil has recently been hovering around
$73.68, with upward momentum evident in tight consolidation patterns. The
energy sector as a whole has increased by 3.4% to 5.4%, outperforming other
industries.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the crude oil
market, with a focus on price levels that suggest potential support at $72
and $71.50. The prevailing sentiment encourages long positions as the market
positions itself for possible price increases.
- News Impact: Geopolitical tensions involving oil supply, particularly from
Russia and Ukraine, are intensifying concerns over supply disruptions.
Furthermore, potential tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico could
disrupt market stability and increase price volatility. The upcoming
developments in energy policy will further shape the market dynamics in
2025.
Crude Opportunity Part 1Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on.
Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next.
For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick.
In essence, the current weekly Crude Oil Futures CL1! show a similar set up ready for a spike and rally for Crude Oil. No fundamental reason (yet) but the technicals are projecting a billish scenario based on the technical set up.
Part 2 will look more in-depth and zoom into the recent time frame...
Stay tuned if you are keen...
Can the HOUSE Capitalize LONG this week on Crude OIL...?NYMEX:MCL1!
"In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr.
Here on the 4Hr TF market opened up and we are currently inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone ($73.43). Now this is my "Confluence Profile 500K" Playbook System to go LONG;
Pillar 1) HTF EOF 'Market Direction' Who has the stronger more dominant hand?
Now everyone's perception is different and that is totally fine. In my personal opinion we are still Pro Trend Bearish, however currently buyers have the slight EDGE. Now Im going to wait see how price reacts with the 4HR Sub. ($73.75) and wait to see if we can get a LTF Order Flow Footprint confirmation to enter LONG and Target the HIGHS....
Pillar 2) HTF Mitigation leads to LTF Order Flow Entry Confirmation.
Let's be more patient and wait for more Data to be printed and then we'll create a better narrative to enter. I'll keep close update as PA develops.
Til then before I head off, family I have to say; NOTHING and I repeat NOTHING in the market is set in stone. We play probability & adaptability to market conditions. Let's be skilled. Let's be patient. Let's be focused. Developing a stronger system that performs exceedingly well over time. Continued Success to you all...
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are no option for me here. I want to see selling pressure next week and wait for decent second signal before shorting this.
comment: Big bull surprise early in 2025. I did not expect the market to just melt through 3 months of lower highs. We now have the big bear trend line right above us around 75 and it’s reasonable to expect market to get there before we could see bigger profit taking. Any short would need a stop 77.4 but I still think the odds are very good for the bears that we won’t make a higher high. Volume is still garbage so once we have decent selling pressure, I will take that swing short.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls want 75 and a retest of the bear trend line. Easy as that. They could overshoot it some but market has respected it two times before so I expect the trend line to hold. Volume is atrocious so it’s possible that the market just melts lower over the next 1-2 weeks after the retest. It would be very strong by the bulls if they keep the market above 70 now.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears have nothing for now but since we have made lower highs since 2023-09, they expect this to be one as well and the closer they can short to 77 the better. It’s too early to short and bears need to build much bigger selling pressure. We will probably have to go sideways first before this can come down again.
Invalidation is above 77.4.
short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
