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WTI1! trade ideas

Crude oil------sell near 62.20, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: Trump's tariff policy has greatly stimulated crude oil, causing it to plunge all the way. At present, it has fallen to the bottom of the previous plunge again. We estimate that there will be a small counterattack at this position. The rebound is our opportunity to sell again. The idea of ​​crude oil follows the general direction. Pay attention to the suppression near 62.20. The daily line shape shows that it will go down. Operational suggestions Crude oil------sell near 62.20, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat
Consider Long Positions as Crude Oil Tests Lows -Key Insights: As crude oil tests key support levels around $62, considering long positions with caution could be advantageous. Understanding OPEC's increased production impact and broader market sentiment will guide strategic decision-making. Despite bearish pressures, potential for recovery exists as the market may stabilize and seek reversals. -Price Targets: Next week targets: T1 = $65, T2 = $68. Stop levels: S1 = $57, S2 = $52. The target levels and stops are framed to leverage potential bounce from current lows, allowing room for modest recovery amidst volatility. -Recent Performance: Crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline from the low 70s to the low 60s, touching $62 for the first time since April 2021. This decline aligns with general commodity trends reflecting recession fears, with oil down by approximately 10.6%. -Expert Analysis: Mixed opinions reign over crude oil's trajectory. Analysts point to inflation and constraints hinting at long-term bullish potential, while OPEC's supply increase suggests ongoing downward pressure. Caution is advised as the market's technical trajectory could shift with emerging conditions. -News Impact: OPEC's decision to boost production influences current market sentiment, exacerbating crude oil's selling pressure amid global economic uncertainties. Bond markets have seen increased interest due to stability concerns, further affecting commodity price movements including crude oil.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
OIL GLUTSTRONG SELL until November 2025 First Target : $52 Second Target : $43 Under the screening of 100 Weeks Bollinger Bands, Oil is in the same situation as in 1986, 1993, 1998, 2014 and 2020 Since there is talk of a glut " Strong production growth expected to increase global oil glut in 2025, 2026" Bloomberg 11/02/2025, the target could be as low as $32 (High 2022 =130 * GannRatio 0.25) However there will be a heavy test at around $52-55, a support line uniting several key points since 12/2006. Eventually, greater volatility alone would make $43 possible. (130*GannRatio 0.33). It is noticeable that in all instances exepted 2014, a very sizable rebound was observed from 6 months after the plunge, so that we would be strongly short right now and contemplate to buy from September 2025 We cannot speculate as to whether there will be 2 plunges (2014) or 1 straight plunge (all other instances excepted 1998) or a prolonged plunge (1993). This is why the test in the $50 is crucial. The article suggests for 2025-26, more in line with 1993 and 2014. Therefore we believe that $43 will be reached.
NYMEX:CL2!Short
by FRED-RABEMAN
#202514 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. #mcl1 - wti crude oil futures comment: Strong momentum for the bears but I have zero interest in selling where all bears for the past 2 years lost money. Not much more to say about this. Wait for strong buying and join but market will likely do some more testing of 60 first and then sideways before we can go higher. Anything above 63 is a bull surprise and could lead to a squeeze. current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart key levels: 59 - 63 bull case: Bulls are at prior big support but right now we are still in the spike down phase. Market likely needs some time sideways before we can try a bounce. Bulls would do good if they stay above the 2023-12 low and keep it a higher low. Targets for bulls are the bull trend line break retest around 63.7 and the next breakout retest 2025-03 low at 65. Invalidation is below 59. bear case: Bears had the news crash down and now what? Are they strong enough to make lower lows below 60? I highly doubt it until it happens. Only pattern is an ugly expanding triangle and we are at the very bottom of it. Bears don’t have much reasons to sell down here but technicals only go so far for commodities. I will sit on hands for this. Invalidation is above 63. short term: Neutral for now but I will never sell down here since we have not traded this low for 2 years and every time we went below 65 bears lost. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Down at support again around 60. Market has not traded below 59 since 2023 and until it happens it’s a bad trade betting on it. It’s a multi-year trading range and below 64 bulls made money, not bears. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted broken shallow bull trend line and just removed things
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 18th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). We are in the 2nd phase, clearly bearish. On March 23 I wrote: "The current base cycle cannot yet be called bearish as it hasn’t broken the starting point. The next key extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and 31." 👉 Now this base cycle can be considered bearish. Even though the short position from March 27 was stopped out with a planned loss, the extreme forecast of March 31 provided an opportunity to open a new short position. This is a rare case of two closely spaced extreme forecasts triggering back-to-back. These forecasts were issued specifically for crude at the beginning of the year as a window from March 28–31. ⚠️ It looks like my bearish forecast is being confirmed, as outlined in the summer 2024 crude post. The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction is working precisely. All of this resembles the 2010–2014 setup. The previous 4-year crude cycle began in spring 2020 and went sideways from fall 2022. It seems a new 4-year cycle has already started, and its beginning is very weak — much like fall 2012. There’s a high probability this will be a bearish 4-year cycle ending closer to 2028. The next universal extreme forecast is on April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is on May 5.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
Crude Oil Broke Strucutre to the DOWN Side!here we have a pretty simple trade, price action on the daily has finally broke structure to the downside.. this week i'll be looking for sells, you can either enter on the open or look for imbalance GAPS for a slightly better entry on any PULL backs... i'll be adding additional entries as we break the next structure... the structures i have drawn up with the blue dotted lines are areas to target and also wait for the break down of that support area!!!! conclusion - simple trade keep it simple and don't over risk and over trade!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by therealbinarymaster
Tactical Setups & Opportunistic Fades Asset Focus: Crude Oil (WTI) Setup Type: Bull Trap Reversal with Structural Decompression – Tactical Short Bias ⸻ Setup Overview: Crude Oil has transitioned from an emotionally driven rally into a reactive phase of structural decompression. The advance was underwritten by geopolitical risk and inflation narratives, but failed to sustain as macro catalysts reversed. The recent U.S. tariff announcement and OPEC+’s unexpected supply adjustment have directly challenged the bullish framework, forcing a revaluation of near-term demand and policy trajectory. The result: a rejection event that is less about price and more about positioning. The crowd narrative cracked — and the structure followed. What unfolds now is not collapse, but reset. ⸻ COT & Sentiment Snapshot: • Leveraged funds expanded long exposure aggressively into strength — classic trend-chasing. • Recent positioning data shows contraction in net longs, signaling early-phase exit behavior. • Open interest has dropped in parallel with price — a sign of liquidation, not new conviction. • Commercial activity likely neutral-to-hedging, providing natural resistance into strength. • Sentiment rotated quickly — from supply fears to demand caution — validating the trap thesis. ⸻ Market Structure & Technical Breakdown: • Structure confirms a failed continuation — rejection at a known inflection zone undercuts trend integrity. • Rally occurred without foundational support — gaps beneath price reflect structural imbalance. • Price has rotated back through key pivots, invalidating prior momentum. • Thin, untested zones now offer a path of least resistance if pressure continues. • Current structure suggests rotational or decompressing behavior rather than directional clarity. ⸻ Behavioral Finance Layer: “When the justification for a trade becomes a headline, the trade is already crowded.” • Market participants had fully embraced oil as a geopolitical and inflation hedge — a one-dimensional thesis. • The introduction of U.S. tariffs and the OPEC+ supply shift challenged that belief in real time. • The rejection was not just technical — it was narrative failure. • Emotional capital is now unwinding. The next phase will not be fast — it will be unsure. ⸻ Reflexivity Risk Model: • Phase 1: Risk-driven narratives drive flow into the asset (conflict, inflation, supply tightness). • Phase 2: Price rise validates the narrative — conviction deepens, flows accelerate. • Phase 3: Macro catalysts shift (tariffs, supply bump), undermining belief system. • Phase 4: Narrative fails — positioning begins to unwind, structure decompresses under pressure. ⸻ Strategic Stance: Hold a tactical short bias grounded in structural rejection and narrative breakdown. No immediate directional call is required — the edge is in recognizing the psychological unwind already underway. Until a new belief structure emerges, the path forward remains governed by residual flow and fading conviction.
NYMEX:CL1!
by pharyeh
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil daily line showed continuous tombstones, which was suppressed near 72.00. Today's idea is to continue to look at the rebound in the short term and pay attention to the support near 68.70. This position is a buy rebound. We will wait for opportunities in the Asian session. Crude oil has begun to move on a weekly trend. We need to pay attention to this week's closing to determine whether it will start a weekly trend in the future. Fundamental analysis: Trump's midnight tariffs caused the market to tremble again. In addition, ADP rose sharply, with a result of 155,000 people, 80,000 people in advance, and 115,000 people expected. The bulls still pulled up under such a big negative situation. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00Crude oil market analysis: Today's crude oil is still bought at a low price, and short-term bulls have started. Yesterday, gold fell in the US market, but did not fall in the Asian market, but repaired at a high level. The strong support of the daily line has reached 70.00, and the small support is 70.50. Today's idea is to find buying opportunities above 71.50. The daily moving average of crude oil is lined up, and there is still a lot of room for growth. Fundamental analysis: This week is a data week. Today, pay attention to the ADP employment data, which is the pre-agricultural data. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
Long Next Week: Crude Oil Set for Potential Price Recovery - Key Insights: Crude oil sees potential upward momentum with prices trading above the 8-day moving average. Market sentiment favors short-term recovery despite mid-level volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics. Analysts emphasize crude oil's undervaluation and opportunities due to supply constraints and potential oil production peaks by 2025. - Price Targets: Next week targets aim for a recovery from the current level. Tight stops and returns provide a trading framework. - T1: $71 - T2: $72 - S1: $67 - S2: $66 - Recent Performance: WTI crude oil is trading around $68, with predictions suggesting a pullback to $67 before potentially rising. Trading above its 8-day moving average suggests persisting upward momentum, pending market movement. Market volatility exists due to fluctuating demand-supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, with price support at $64.75 and resistance around $70 to $73.50, indicating critical levels for potential trends. - Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight the undervaluation in commodities, including crude oil, suggesting investment opportunities as the energy sector benefits from supply constraints. Expectations exist for peak oil production by 2025, which could lead to long-term market shortages and volatility. Companies like Occidental Petroleum remain sensitive to price variations, focusing on debt reduction and dividend increases. - News Impact: Geopolitical tensions related to Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil could pressure supply chains and affect price stability. The move towards renewable energy continues to reshape long-term demand; however, robust demand is anticipated until major shifts occur. China's crude oil strategies will significantly impact global supply and price alignment. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding future price trajectories in the crude oil market.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 72 bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70. Invalidation is below 65. bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil at Decision Point — Breakout Coming or Just More Chop?Crude is nearing the apex of a descending triangle, but the conflicting signals across timeframes make this a tough read. The daily is breaking out to the upside, while the 4H is pushing lower — classic mixed market structure. Are we about to fake out in both directions before rolling over to fresh lows, or is this a genuine attempt to break higher? Honestly, both long and short setups feel like low-probability plays right now. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradingNutCom