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WTI1! trade ideas

2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think. comment : Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line. current market cycle : trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78. key levels : 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises. Invalidation is below 70.4. bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls. Invalidation is above 74.2. short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude oil rejects key resistance despite elevated tensions Crude oil overnight shied away from our key resistance at $72.50 highlighted in this article here yesterday www.ig.com as the market pushed back expectations of an Israeli response to Iran's missile attack until the end of the Rosh Hashanah holiday tomorrow. While its possible, we think its unlikely that Israeli will launch an attack on Iranian oil fields as such a move would likely drive oil prices toward $80 - an outcome which would be frowned upon by Israel's allies, who are making strides against inflation. Instead, strategic Israeli strikes on critical weapons factories and military objectives are more probable, like the events in April. Furthermore, any potential loss of Iranian supply will likely be offset by the return of Libyan oil and increased Saudi production, as voluntary supply cuts expire on December 1st.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IG_com
OILThis move originated from respecting a bearish FVG, this makes the manipulation to our HTF PDRA now support is bullish fvg that we disrepect With higher time frame SMT, OTE and Discount and a lot of BSL . but this is the part that made me bullish: i was bullish when we hit the inverse 1 H IFVG but got stoped out ( reduced risk 50% i could have improved and waited for the candle to close, (it had a bit more left to fill) now when i re enter i apply time 9.30 and enterd with the billish move instead of anticipating it We see a reaction from the daily level but fail to fill the 4 H one wich is located at the 7.05 level.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by FTP1312
1
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bullish outside bar with big tails above and below. Still a strong day by the bulls but they could not get above last weeks high 72.39 which shows they are not that strong. 50% pb is around 68 so market is neutral there. We are at 70 and I expect it to be bigger resistance. Bulls want 73 to test the upper bear trend line. comment: Bull spike was big enough to expect a second leg. Bears tested the lows enough from a technical perspective and I do think the pain trade is up. One measured move target is 74, which would be around the upper bear trend line and that is my preferred target for the bulls as of now. current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart key levels : 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls should not let it drop below 68.5. If they keep it above the 1h 20ema, their odds continue to be great for a second leg to 73 or higher. There is a small chance that the pullback already happened to 69.76 and we move higher from here. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning before EU open. Bulls are favored. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears need to keep it a lower high below 72.4 or market will likely move to 73/74 with force. The 71.5 price is roughly the 50% pullback for the last bear leg and market continues to find sellers in that area. As long as that is the case, we will likely continue sideways between 66 - 72. Invalidation is above 72.4. short term: Bullish above 69.5, expecting a second leg up. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08 : Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day: 67 was previous support and market got to 66.32 before we got a decent pullback. Could you have anticipated the spike? Maybe. The buying below 67 was strong enough to expect a second leg up and maybe retest 68. I’m happy for everyone who caught it.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Crude oil October first 2024. this is the second video today. the first video I talked about range boxes on the dxy and I described the problem with ranges that don't have enough vertical range. oil had arranged box with a range of about two to $3000 from top to bottom or bottom the top. you can trade that type of a range and it will be accompanied with good trade location and higher probability Behavior to take you Higher and lower when you have a range that's nearly 3000. the range of a trade on oil is likely to be a profitable trade even if you screw it up and only make $1500 instead of $2000. trading higher probability is a function of the distance between buyers and sellers when you decide on a trade location. what this means is that it's not just the stop that decides your risk, it is also a function of the range of a trade from your trade location. a I believe if you don't think like this you will miss a very important function on how you decide to take a trade. extensions are very critical to my trade decisions and the two most important extensions are the measured move and the 1.272. I am an extreme advocate for for factoring in extensions. at the end of this video I compared the difference between using ABCD patterns as opposed to using extensions and the example in this video shows a clear difference between using ABCD patterns and trading range boxes..... thing to think about and none of this is written in stone. I'm going to mention something as and aside. the markets are great markets right now because there are enough opportunities that can give you multi-$1000 trades.... however when the market finally breaks down and it's clear that there is a pervasive bearish Market as I believe there will be and I am definitely not the only one who thinks this.... what will happen for many of these markets that are so great to trade right now is that those individual markets will contract and there will be less clarity for deciding whether the Market's going higher or lower and this is potentially very treacherous times to trade the market and this is why you want to understand the concept of expansion and contraction of markets..... it's only a question of when this happens and sometimes these markets they can track can go on for months and years.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
Oil Price Rebound to Face Negative Slope in 50-Day SMAThe price of oil may attempt to retrace the decline from the last week’s high ($72.40) as it initiates a series of higher highs and lows. Crude Oil Price Outlook Keep in mind, the price of oil bounced back the January low ($64.37) to hold within the yearly range, and a break/close above $70.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may push crude back towards $72.80 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Next area of interest comes in around the monthly high ($73.23) but the price of oil may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($71.88) if it continues to hold below the moving average. Failure to hold above $67.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil towards $65.40 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around the monthly low ($64.09). --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
MCL: One-Two Punch Could Lift Crude Oil to Higher GroundNYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle. Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, supporting the property sector, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Specifically, • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7% • The PBOC slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5% • The PBOC lowered home mortgage downpayment requirements to 15%; previously, those buying houses other than primary residence were required to put down 25% • Separately, the PBOC would advise banks to lower mortgage interest rate by 0.5% • The PBOC also announced a new RMB $1 trillion long-term credit facility (equivalent to US$143 billion). It allows financial institutions to use their stocks, bonds and ETF funds as collateral to obtain funding from the PBOC. The use of fund is specifically earmarked for credit lending to publicly traded companies for stock buyback Each of these policies is a major stimulus measure. Putting together, they have the potential to reshape the economic outlook for China, and for the rest of the world as well. Following the announcement, Chinese stock markets clocked their best week in 16 years as the CSI 300 rallied 15.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%. On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed 4.47% to close at 3,703.68, its highest level in a year, while the HSI rose 3.32% to 20,586.94, its highest since February 2023. On Monday, September 30th, China’s SSE Composite Index rallied 8.06%, closing at 3,336.50. This marks a nine-day winning streak, its best day since September 2008 and its highest point since August 2023. In 2024, China’s economy has slowed significantly. Last week, China released its industrial profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. On a year-to-date basis, profits at large industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the first eight months, down from 3.6%. However, China’s supersized monetary policies could help its economy turn a corner. It is highly expected that China’s Ministry of Finance will follow suit to announce new fiscal stimulus and add more ammunition to fuel economic growth. Together, the extraordinary measures installed by the Top 2 economies, which account for 40% of global GDP, could help improve the global economy in a meaningful way. WTI Crude Oil: Higher Demand from Economic Growth While it is still too early to quantify how much the global economy would benefit from these stimulus measures, we could expect higher industrial output from the government credit extension and the lower business cost of capital. The potential impact could be huge for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. Today, my analysis concentrates on crude oil. The Fed rate cut and China Stimulus package both exceeded market expectations. These are game changers big enough to reverse the declining trend of crude oil prices. Recent escalation of Middle East conflict would only add to the uncertainty of oil supply. In my opinion, WTI could reclaim the previous levels of $76, $83 and $89, consequently. The expected stimulus from China’s Ministry of Finance and the November 6th FOMC rate cut could support the upward trend if they meet or exceed market expectations. The recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms a shift to the long positions: • As of September 24th, total open interest (OI) of WTI futures was 2,242,432 contracts • Managed Money held 210,469 long and 48,541 short, a 4.3-to-1 ratio • Compared to the previous week, the long positions increased by 24,734, while the shorts decreased by 3,969 contracts; this shows a bullish view building up For someone with a bullish view of crude oil, he could establish a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). The contract has a notional value of 100 barrels. At 1/10 the size of benchmark WTI Crude Oil contracts, Micro WTI futures offer the same robust trading transparency and price discovery with smaller margin requirements. At Friday closing price of $68.63, each November contract (MCLX) is worth $6,863. CME Group requires an initial margin of $596 for each MCL contract, long or short. Hypothetically, if WTI bounced back to $76.88, its previous high on August 5th, the price increase of $8.25 would produce a gain of $825 (=8.25x100) for a long position. The risk of buying crude oil is that the follow-up government stimulus packages were less than market expectations, which could undermine the growth forecast. To hedge the downside risk, an experienced trader could consider the use of put options on WTI crude oil futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
LIGHT CRUDE OIL 1W COMODITIES - CRUDE is still DOWNLIGHT CRUDE OIL 1W COMODITIES - CRUDE is still DOWN It is difficult to understand the current context of raw materials in relation to their behaviour in previous times, and above all what is happening with oil. Until very recently, a conflict in the Middle East meant increases in the price per barrel. At the moment, the hornet's nest is stirred up, but it does not seem to be enough. The Israeli conflict with its close neighbours would have been more than enough for this scenario of increases, and even more so when a nuclear power like Iran is directly mentioned. However, the crude oil market is in a downward spiral that has not yet hit bottom. Whether it is due to the threat of electric cars, the use of renewable energies or any other reason that occurs to us why the oil market is currently bearish. Regardless of the factors that have brought the price to $70 per barrel, we can consider oil (black gold) as an alternative to gold or other reserve assets. If the technology market turns around, everyone will run around like headless chickens and this could be a good safe haven. As for the strategy to follow based on Technical Analysis, our position remains bearish until the price finds a support zone: SUPPORT 1: 57 - 61 SUPPORT 2: 34 - 39 As long as it does not break the bearish channel, we will follow the evolution of the price until it gives buy signals and we will pay special attention to the areas marked as supports. Once our strategy is defined, it is a matter of waiting to enter at the right time. TradeX Bot, you can configure BUY and SELL strategies on futures, so our way of approaching the market will offer us opportunities whether the market goes up or down. TradeX BoT (in development): Tool to automate trading strategies designed in TradingView. It works with both indicators and graphic design tools: parallel channels, trend lines, supports, resistances... It allows you to easily establish SL (%), TP (%), SL Trailing... multiple strategies in different values, simultaneous BUY-SELL orders, conditional orders. This tool is in the development process and the BETA will soon be ready for testing. FOLLOW ME and I will keep you informed of the progress we make. I share with you my technical analysis assessments on certain values ​​that I follow as part of the strategies I design for my portfolio, but I do not recommend anyone to operate based on these indications. Inform yourself, train yourself and build your own strategies when investing. I only hope that my comments help you on your own path :)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by DeuXfi
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65. Quote from last week: comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden. comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 64-74 bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again. Invalidation is above 69. outlook last week: short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength. → Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77. current swing trade: None chart update: removed broken bull trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil upside Target 71.70Crude oil is presenting a promising buying opportunity as it approaches a crucial support level at $66. This level has demonstrated significant resilience, making it an ideal point for traders looking to enter the market. Our target for this trade is set at $71.70, which aligns with key resistance levels that could be tested as the market moves upward. In addition, our proprietary indicator has signaled a buying opportunity on the daily chart, further validating our bullish stance. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add another layer of urgency, as such instability often drives oil prices higher due to supply concerns. As we navigate through these market dynamics, now is an opportune time to consider adding crude oil to your portfolio. Keep an eye on price action around the $66 support, and be prepared for potential upward momentum towards our target of $71.70. Buying at Current Label Stoploss - 66 First Target 70 Second Target 71 Third Target 71.70
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Sudhir-Sirohi