How To Trade Probability Ranges The Critical Rule of 1/3Using the Rule of Thirds to Master Probabilities in trading and investing ranges
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Stocks typically remaining in consolidation ranges 70% of the time while trending the remainder.
Using the rule of thirds, we can use statistics, prior price action and the probabilities of success to determine when to enter trades where the odds are stacked in our favor.
1) We start by finding a stock that is in a consolidation range, and identify the nearest important support and important resistance levels based on your targeted trading timeframe.
2 ) We take the range between the support and resistance levels and divide it into thirds, so we have three zones within the consolidation range.
3) When going long, you want to BUY the stock when it is within the bottom third or the zone from support to the 1st third level. Once you buy, your objectives are to hold during the middle third of the range, and sell during the top third.
When you buy in the first third, this gives you a 66 percent chance of success. If you buy in the second third of the range, you only have a 50/50 chance of success. Going long in the top third of the range, gives you only a 33% chance of success because you are already close to the resistance level.
When going short, the sequence and odds are reversed. You sell during the top third of the range, hold during the middle third and exit in the bottom third. This again gives you a 66% chance of success when you enter in the top third, 50/50 chance if you enter in the middle third, and a 33% chance of success if you enter in the bottom third as you are already close to the support zone.
****Using this simple trick, you can quickly evaluate trades based on probabilities and selectively enter trades where the odds of success are the highest and avoid likely losing trades. The rule of thirds also also gives you the confidence to continue to hold trades based on previous important ranges, and provides clear levels where the stock is likely to either reverse or start trending.
Hope It Helps to your Trading & Investing Success
Marc
