Commodities - Copper Topped OutIdea for Copper:
- Commodities Cycle is topped out.
- Copper in Trade and Trend Distribution patterns.
- Clear 5 wave Impulse completed.
- Re-tested resistance and rejected.
- Price will bleed out to complete the Head & Shoulders then capitulate.
TP1: 3.44 very likely.
TP2: 2.78
PT: 1.97
Global markets are not moving back into Goldilocks, no matter what the media is blaring. Reflation Overshoot Trade is over. Exposure should be given to Stagflation and Deflation trades.
GLHF
- DPT
COPPER1! trade ideas
COPPER: PRICE DROP DOWN | WAITING FOR NEW BUY SCENARIO 🔔Copper prices fell on Tuesday, as increasing inventories in global exchanges and worries about possible governmental price control measures in top consumer China weighed on sentiment, despite data showing solid copper imports in the first quarter.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $8,856.50 a tonne by 0706 GMT , while the most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.3% at 65,870 yuan ($10,055.72) a tonne.
A rise in the prices of global commodities has led to Chinese top officials emphasizing the need to cap prices to reduce cost for firms and control inflation .
However, China’s January-March copper imports were the highest first-quarter amount since at least 2008, on rising demand and easing logistics issues.
“(There’s been) too much good news baked in, so much so that looking forward, there is expectation of tighter monetary conditions and (China’s) State Reserve Bureau’s release of supplies to help industrial firms cope with rising raw material cost,” said a Singapore-based metals trader.
“But I think this is a dip to buy anything between here and $8,800 is worth picking up,” the trader said, adding that data were backward looking.
Detailed Elliot Wave Analysis of Copper with Predictions
The recent rally in Copper prices sure feels like a wave 3. Volume is great. In wave 3 according to RN Elliot is usually the most powerful wave in a trend. Prices rise quickly and corrections are very short lived and shallow. Anyone looking to get in on a pullback will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1. This is where we are at currently at 1.618. Looks to me this is the End of wave 3. Anyone looking to get in should wait for wave 4 to play out which will provide a very good risk reward trade. And according to RN Elliot research Wave 5 is the largest in the commodities.
Note - If wave 4 Monthly closed anywhere in the price range of wave 1 this idea is invalid
This is my preferred count of Elliot wave Analysis on Copper. It’s a logarithmic chart. So we had a 15.5 years long Ending Diagonal which ended with a explosive breakout. Followed by Double Combo WXY. W was an Expanded Flat with C Wave going deep testing the breakout point of the Diagonal. And then X wave correction in three waves marked abc. And then the y wave which is the larger trend finished higher than W which is unusual case. I have given the subwave count of wave 1.
Subwave count of wave 3 :
Wave 1 finished at median line of pitchfork
Wave 2 was a running flat correction
Wave 3 almost kissed the 1.0 line of the pitchfork
Wave 4 correction was a symmetrical triangle broke out in the direction of B wave. It also comply with guide of alteration.
And looks like we my have just ended subwave 5 and Main wave 3 as you can see in the chart it has made a lower low on daily timeframe
Thank you for reading
Will appreciate your feedback
Copper Starting to Look Weaker Rather Than StrongerSupply entered the market in February evidenced by the close at approx 3/4 and confirmed by March's bar - a down bar of similar volume closing slightly above the halfway point of February's bar. March's bar was approximately only half the spread of February's bar indicating that there wasn't good ease of movement to the downside. The close in the bottom third of the bar also indicated that buyers were still present.
April confirmed this fact with a widespread upbar on slightly reduced volume closing close to the top of the bar. The spread of the bar although being widespread was still less than that of February, and the close did not provide much gain over February's high indicating that although buyers were present they were having to exert far more effort to markup prices.
This was confirmed by May's bar with a reduced spread, increased volume and close at the midpoint indicating both a reduced ease of movement to the upside and supply entering the market.
🏛COPPER SWING ANALYSIS|LONG🚀
🏛COPPER is trading in an uptrend in a rising channel
And as you can see on the chart number 1
The metal broke the pervious all time high with ease on the daily
But then retraced back below the level
While staying inside the rising channel
All of the above paints a mixed picture
But until the channel gets broken,I will remain bullish
But further growth will depend on the coppers ability to fix itself above the key level
If it fails to do so, we will see a bearish breakout eventually
And the price will go down to the nearest support
LONG🚀
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