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COPPER1! trade ideas

Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months. Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October. - On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI. - On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation. - Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations. - Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
High grade copper HG looking bullsihCopper traded on the COMEX looks bullish. Currently at 3.20 per pound, the chart shows an Eve and Adam bottom forming between 2015 and now. The expected target of this move would be 4.70 which would put the market five cents above its old high set in Feb 2011 of 4.65. From 4.65 I would expect the market to revisit the 3.30-3.60 region to make a strong bottom for a longer term ascent. Looking back further on the copper chart, there is a longer term Adam and Eve bottom forming starting in Dec 2008 to present. The target would be 7.365 based off of this longer term pattern. If copper were to trade up to 4.70 area and come back down to 3.50 area, it would also present an opportunity for an ascending triangle to form with the same target, 7.365, as the Adam and Eve pattern. With a weakening dollar, look to copper for guidance on inflation going forward.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ngordon
3
Weekly copper market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.2910 per pound. Hope for a vaccine is fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases. The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. Copper stocks are down sharply to 328406 MT, a drop of 8.27%, or nearly 30000 MT . This confirms the good health of the Chinese manufacturing sector and China's willingness to accumulate strategic stocks of the red metal. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest importer of copper, and data suggests an acceleration of the economic recovery in Q4. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, China's industrial production was +6.9% in October. In the United States, retail sales were down to +0.2% in October from +1.2% in September, and US industrial production was down to +1.1% in October. - On Monday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone were at 53.6 in November compared with 54.8 in October, and composite Markit PMI at 45.1 in November compared with 50 in October, a sign of the slowdown in the recovery in the Euro zone. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Wednesday, orders for durable goods, inflation, unemployment registrations, and U.S. GDP. - Thursday, Thanksgiving in the US. ECB report. - Friday, Thanksgiving and close of trading at 13:00. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 157350 MT from 165200 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 96766 MT from 117949 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74290 MT from 74830 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 328406 MT compared to 357979 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 67.162 K instead of 65.069 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Copper smashing new highs and it isn't even 2021 On the back of growing demand out of China (50% of global demand), Asia recovery and general optimism from Vaccine news, Copper has reached record levels that haven't been seen since June 2018. Last night's U.S. manufacturing in November saw the quickest pickup since September 2014, driving expectations of higher base metals demand in the US for next year. Low prices have kept new copper mines from developing, and a shortage of scrap has also helped drive up pricing. At $3.00 per pound, copper becomes an attractive investment for new miners, so no doubt new copper mining projects will be speed up. Nevertheless, new mines take a while and increasing demand will continue to put prices under pressure for the immediate future.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by majicktrader
COPPER PROBABLY IN ENDING DIAGONAL WAVE C or WAVE 5Copper is about to finish an ending diagonal wave C or 5 of a higher degree and will soon enter a bearish wave correction ( Declining volume supports ending diagonal structure and will give confidence once price breaks below the converging trend line with a higher volume daily close ) We will take short positions only when the price retrace backs and fail to make a higher high and breaks below the swing low that will be our entry point, Stop loss will be placed on the last swing high once trade is entered Targets for correction wave are Fibs 0.32 , 0.5 and 0.618 ( Ending diagonals tend to retrace back to there starting point ) Aggressive traders can take positions once price is touching or breaching the upper trend line of the triangle, also look for a reversal candlestick pattern on the daily close Divergence on Volume, RSI and MACD etc. Weekly candlestick is building a shooting star pattern which will further bring confidence to this trade if the week does close with a shooting star The risk/reward ratio on this trade is exceptional but this will be a long term trade 💡 Volume is the key factor at breakout below Let see how this plays, Good Luck ! Disclaimer: This is for informational purpose only, anyone taking trades using this idea will be liable of their own loss
COMEX:HGZ2020Short
by KayJay
CopperLook at this little chart. screams short in my opinion. so lets try building a small (short) position over the next few weeks and see if it holds. remember, as soon as your position turns green, take risk off and play with the banks money. it doesn't take huge contract size to make money, all you have to be is "right" in your directional call. this type of trend is showing in many different charts right now. the market is waiting for U. S. stimulus which will come with Biden. in the meantime look for pullbacks. and don't use stops, if you can afford it.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn4465547
COPPER PROBABLY IN ENDING DIAGONAL WAVE C or WAVE 5Most probably Copper is about to finish an ending diagonal wave C or 5 of a higher degree and will soon enter a bearish wave correction (Declining volume supports ending diagonal structure and will give confidence once price breaks below the converging trend line with a higher volume daily close) We will take short positions once the price breaks below the last swing low, Stop loss will be placed on the last swing high once trade is entered Targets for correction wave are Fibs 0.32 , 0.5 and 0.618 ( Ending diagonals tend to retrace back to there starting point ) Aggressive traders can take positions if price touches the upper trend line of the triangle Weekly candlestick is building a shooting star pattern which will further bring confidence to this trade if the week does close with a shooting star 💡 Volume is the key factor at breakout below Let see how this plays, Good Luck ! Disclaimer: This is for informational purpose only, anyone taking trades using this idea will be liable of their own loss
COMEX:HGZ2020Short
by KayJay