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CRUDEOILX2025 trade ideas

Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still did not rise. After the daily line was adjusted, the buying and selling game became more obvious. Today, it rebounded and continued to sell. Syria's thawing restrictions have helped to support the continuation of crude oil selling. In addition, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also suppressed crude oil. In the long run, crude oil is unlikely to rise again. Today, pay attention to the short position opportunity of 62.70. Fundamental analysis: Recently, there are many fundamentals, but relatively few data, which has a great impact on the market. The Sino-US trade negotiations, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, and the India-Pakistan ceasefire have all affected the market. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Light Crude Oil Daily Double Bottom Bullish Reversal Trade Plan Price has formed a clear Double Bottom pattern with a neckline as current Temporary Resistance. • ✅ Entry is triggered only after a confirmation candle breaks above the neckline. • Buy Stop is placed below the neckline to catch the momentum move. • Stop Loss is at the recent lower Low (safe and logical placement). • 🎯 Take Profit levels are based on measured move projections. Trade Plan: • Entry: 64.20 • Stop Loss: 55.12 • Take Profit 1: 73.28 • Take Profit 2: 82.36 • Volume: 0.21 X 2 “Waiting for neckline to break with Bulliwh confirmation candle” – this ensures you enter only on strong momentum. Light Crude Oil future is forming a classic Bullish Reversal pattern with clear structure. A break of the neckline confirms the setup Key Highlights: • ✅ Pattern: Double Bottom • ⚠️ Confirmation: Break + Bullish candle • 🔄 Risk Management: Tight SL, 2 TP levels • 🧩 Confluence: Trendline break + structure shift + RSI Divergence
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by sarfz.ahmd
WTI Crude Oil: Trade Idea Context and SetupOur Long trade idea has already reached its target at 5921.75 in ES futures. If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week: Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however, we want to remind traders that these example trade ideas are for educational purposes, they are not a recommendation. Stops are never meant to dictate exact stop prices. Trader’s should place their stops according to their own risk management plan whether that be a mix of fixed dollar amount and market structure or filtering down to execution time frames to place stops per market generated information and structure. Today’s Trade Idea: WTI Crude Oil We will analyze the Long trade idea in WTI Crude Oil, providing both context and setup. Fundamental Analysis Supporting Our Scenario: Following the reciprocal tariff announcements, WTI Crude Oil fell to its lowest level of 54.48, a price last seen in 2023. While equity markets have recovered, crude oil remains subdued—widely attributed to concerns over OPEC+ overproduction. However, as we’ve previously explained, this interpretation is incorrect. The OPEC+ production increases were planned as early as December 2024, and the rollback of voluntary cuts is primarily aimed at meeting domestic demand within OPEC+ countries. This uptick in consumption also coincides with seasonal demand from summer and the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, with the reversal of China’s escalatory tariffs and newly signed deals in the Middle East, many analysts have revised their GDP and recession forecasts upward. We believe this improved economic outlook is yet to be priced in by the oil markets. Technical Analysis Supporting Our Scenario: From a technical standpoint, there is a significant resistance zone and key Low Volume Node (LVN) stacked just above the 2025 mCVAL and Q2 2025 mCVAH. The March 2025 Low also sits just above this cluster. Our analysis projects a potential move from these levels up to the next major area of stacked levels: • AVWAP from 2025 High • Yearly 2025 VWAP • 2025 Mid-Range This sets the stage for a potential long opportunity in WTI Crude Oil as markets begin to price in shifting fundamentals and technical conditions align. Key Levels: • 2025 mCVAL: 63.38 • Q2 2025 mCVAH: 63.21 • AVWAP from 2025 Hi: 66.70 • Yearly 2025 VWAP: 67.44 • 2025- Mid Range: 66.52 Example Long Trade Idea: Probing Liquidity Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins • Entry: 63.50 • Stop: 62.90 • Target 1: 64.37 • Target 2: 66.70 • Risk: 120 ticks • Reward: 407 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4R Important Notes: • Note that DOE inventories numbers are scheduled today at 10.30 am ET. Watch your risk amid volatility caused by this economic release. • These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations. • The trade idea considers 2 contracts to calculate risk and reward. • Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management. • Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels. • AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAL: Value Area Low VAH: Value Area High VP: Volume Profile AVP: Anchored Volume Profile C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price NYMEX:CL1!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeClear
Crude Oil Going Higher - TA and fundamentals aligneThe 0-5 count is not over yet. Sudo 4 and 5 are still lurking. It's good to see how the Medianline-Set cought the Highs of the swings. Likewise we can see the subborn rejection at the Center-Line at P3. I will not trade CL to the short side, until it's clear that P4 is engraved in this Chart. Until then, I maybe shoot for some intraday or dayli trades in Crude. Economy Facts that support a rise, up to P4: Crude oil refineries typically switch to producing more gasoline (fuel for cars) in the spring, particularly around March to April in the United States and other northern hemisphere countries. Seasonal demand: Warmer months mean more driving and vacation travel, increasing gasoline demand. Regulatory change: Refineries begin producing summer-grade gasoline, which has lower volatility and is required by environmental regulations (especially in the U.S. under EPA rules). The switch to summer-grade gasoline must be completed by June 1st for retail and May 1st for terminals and pipelines in the U.S. In Summary: - Switch begins: March–April - Completed by: May (terminals), June (retail) - This seasonal shift is often called the "refinery maintenance season" or "spring blend switch."
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Eyes Key Resistance: Will Prices Push Higher? Targets: - T1 = $63.85 - T2 = $65.25 Stop Levels: - S1 = $61.25 - S2 = $59.90 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Crude Oil. **Key Insights:** Crude Oil is trading near critical resistance levels that may signal a bullish breakout. Historical data suggests that oil has a tendency to rebound sharply during periods of geopolitical tension and seasonal demand increases. The $64–$65 range remains pivotal, as overcoming this resistance could attract institutional momentum buying. Supply constraints, coupled with signals of recovering global demand, are lending support to the bullish outlook in the short term. However, traders remain cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties. Oil prices are particularly sensitive to policy shifts in OPEC+ production and expectations around inflation in the global economy. Additionally, the potential renewal of Iranian sanctions could create volatility, impacting short-term price trends. **Recent Performance:** Crude Oil has shown range-bound behavior between $60 and $65 over the past few weeks. Short-term pullbacks have frequently tested the $60.78 support level but failed to breach it. Attempted rallies toward $65 have met strong resistance, indicating that any established move above this level may trigger further upside. Price action reflects increased buying interest near the current levels, but confirmation of a breakout is pending. **Expert Analysis:** Numerous analysts highlight the significance of approaching seasonal trends, within which oil demand typically sees a boost. Technical analysis confirms that moving averages are recovering, and oil remains above key channels that signal a bullish continuation. Moreover, volume analysis indicates increasing activity among institutional buyers as prices hover above $62.00. While geopolitics remain a double-edged sword, OPEC+ production cuts alongside demand visibility for 2023 are suggesting a window for bullish movement. Near-term consolidations may offer strategic long opportunities with proper risk management. **News Impact:** Recent headlines on Middle Eastern production agreements and U.S. inventory data are driving sentiment. Decreasing stockpile levels have alleviated some of the oversupply concerns. Meanwhile, global policymaking on energy transition continues to play a role in longer-term price sustainability. Traders are keenly watching any updates on Iranian nuclear deal talks as a major disruptor. **Trading Recommendation:** Given current price movement and favorable seasonal trends, a LONG position on Crude Oil is recommended. The ability of prices to stay above $62.00 offers a window for upside opportunities toward $65 and beyond. Short-term targets are set at $63.85 and $65.25, while stop levels should be carefully placed at $61.25 and $59.90 to protect against further dips. Recent consolidations and institutional buying signal a promising rally, but traders should remain vigilant about macroeconomic news as a potential risk factor.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: I think buying that weekly time frame double bottom below 55 makes sense. Bulls are trying to print 64+ again and hit the weekly 20ema around 64.5ish. I favor the bulls to get to the upper bear wedge trend line a bit higher around 66ish and there market will decide if we continue further in it. The structure has a lot more room, so I don’t think bulls can get much more than that. We are in a bear wedge inside a broad bear channel. Making money as a bear is just easier, that is why I don’t expect too much from the bulls. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 59 - 65 bull case: Bulls trying to make last week’s low a credible higher low and test up to the bear wedge trend line around 64.5 - 65. If we stay above 59.5ish, I favor the bulls. Below that price it get’s neutral again and I would see the odds of 55 the same as for 65. Invalidation is below 59. bear case: Bulls are trying to keep the market above the daily 20ema and form a two-legged pullback at the moving average, which is a buy signal if they get a good signal bar the next 1-3 days. Bears can invalidate it, if they break below 59 and get follow-through below it. It is technically slightly more likely that we continue sideways inside the given range, like we did the past 5 weeks. Structure is neutral, so if bears want to reverse from above 60, they need to print a decent sell signal on Monday/Tuesday. Invalidation is above 64.4 short term: Neutral and will lean towards the side that can print the next decent bull/bear day. Bulls can go up to 65 and bears could trade back down to 55 if we go below 59 again. Only a big bull surprise could get us above the closest next bear trend line and prices above 66. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil Price Rally StallsThe recent rally in the price of oil seems to be stalling as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week. In turn, crude may give back the advance from the weekly low ($61.02), with a break/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone bringing the monthly low ($55.30) on the radar. Next area of interest comes in around the April low ($54.46), but a move above $64.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil towards the April high ($71.62). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Gold has been moving recently, and crude oil has also moved with it. Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, and is currently testing the big pass near 65.00 on the weekly line. If this position is broken, we will be bullish on the long-term trend of crude oil. Today's crude oil idea is to rebound in the short term, and the general trend is bearish. Consider selling when it approaches 65.00 for the first time. 61.30 is the buying and receiving position. Pay attention to the inventory changes of crude oil later. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Crude Oil - Double Bottom 📊 Market Overview: Price is trading around $62.58, approaching a key horizontal resistance near $63.50, which has acted as a strong supply zone in the past. The chart shows a bullish setup with a long position already marked, targeting the $70.60 zone, a major previous top. A clear risk/reward structure is in place, suggesting a well-defined trade plan. 🔍 Key Technical Zones: 🔼 Resistance Zone: 63.50 – Immediate resistance Price has struggled here before; needs a clean break to validate bullish continuation. 70.60 – Main target zone This is the previous strong sell-off origin; high probability of rejection if reached again. 🔽 Support Zone: 61.26 – Marked stop loss Protects the trade in case of a false breakout or quick reversal. 54.38 – Major demand Long-term support from April lows. 📈 Trade Idea Based on Chart Setup: ✅ Long Setup (Bullish Bias) Entry: 62.58 (current price) Stop Loss: 61.26 Take Profit: 70.60 Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:4+ (very favorable) Conditions for entry confirmation: Break and close above 63.50 on strong volume or bullish engulfing Retest of 63.50 as support could provide a secondary, lower-risk entry 📉 Bearish Scenario (Invalidation): Failure to break 63.50 cleanly + a bearish rejection pattern could lead to a deeper correction. Break below 61.26 invalidates this bullish structure. In that case, next support lies near $58.00 and below. 🧠 Fundamental Angle to Consider: WTI Crude Oil is highly sensitive to: OPEC decisions US inventory reports Geopolitical tensions or Middle East developments USD strength/weakness Make sure to monitor the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory report and Fed updates, as these can drastically affect volatility. 📌 Summary: Current Bias: Bullish (if 63.50 breaks cleanly) Key Levels: Support: 61.26 / 58.00 Resistance: 63.50 / 70.60 Strategy: Buy breakout above 63.50 or on successful retest; manage SL at 61.26
PYTH:WTI3!Long
by Forexbeats
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the high of the week and we made a textbook double bottom below 56. Sometimes it’s not more complicated than that to take a trade. current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily key levels: 58 - 64 bull case: 63 is my first bull target, followed by 64 and above 64.38 we likely test up to the bear trend line around 67. Best for bulls would be to keep the gap 59.8 - 60.3 open. Invalidation is below 58. bear case: If we drop below 58 again, it’s a clear descending triangle and we could do 56 or lower, again. Right now bears don’t have much since last week was bullish and closed at the highs. Best bears could get is a trading range 55 - 65, so they better keep making lower highs or they have to try again around 67 or higher. Invalidation is above 64.4 short term: Bullish for 63 or higher. No interest in selling down here. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Oil Rebounds to $59 as US Inventories Drop – Reversal Ahead?After recent declines, crude oil futures (CL1!) staged a modest recovery during Thursday’s session, trading near $59.10 per barrel. The rebound comes as US crude inventories unexpectedly dropped, easing concerns about oversupply and providing a short-term lift to prices. Key Drivers Behind the Rebound US Inventory Drawdown – The latest EIA report showed a decline in crude stockpiles, signaling stronger demand and helping prices stabilize. Technical Support Holds Firm – The bounce aligns with a critical daily demand zone, which previously acted as a strong support level on the weekly chart. Market Sentiment Shifts – While retail traders remain bearish, commercial traders (often considered "smart money") are increasing long positions, hinting at a potential trend reversal. Traders should watch for follow-through buying to confirm whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a larger reversal. Bottom Line: Oil’s rebound is fueled by fundamentals (lower inventories) and technicals (strong demand zone). With commercial traders betting on higher prices, the stage may be set for a bullish reversal—if buyers sustain momentum. ✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
Oil's (CL) Rally Likely to Stall, Signaling Deeper LossesThe current market cycle for Light Crude Oil (CL), starting from its high on January 15, 2025, is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave pattern. This technical structure suggests a corrective phase with alternating declines and recoveries. From the peak, the price dropped to 55.12, completing wave (W), followed by a rally to 65.07, marking the end of wave (X). The decline has since resumed in wave (Y), which is breaking down into a WXY pattern, indicating further downside momentum. Within wave (Y), the initial decline, wave W, is forming as a zigzag. From the wave (X) high, the price fell to 61.53 (wave (i)), then rallied to 63.92 (wave (ii)). The decline continued in wave (iii) to 56.39, followed by a bounce to 59.87 in wave (iv). The final drop in wave (v) reached 55.30, completing wave ((a)) in a higher degree. Currently, wave ((b)) is unfolding as a zigzag, with its first leg, wave (a), reaching 60.26. A pullback in wave (b) is expected soon, followed by a rise in wave (c) to complete wave ((b)). Looking ahead, as long as the key resistance at 65.07 holds, any rally is likely to fail after 3, 7, or 11 swings, leading to further declines. Traders should watch these levels closely for potential selling opportunities.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Oil prices (WTI) remain bearish below $65Introduction: In a market analysis we brought you in mid-April, we explained that the price of US crude oil on the commodities market had broken a pivotal technical level, the price of $65 per barrel of Texas crude oil (WTI). As the benchmark for the price of black gold in the United States, this further fall in the price of oil is a very good thing for US disinflation, with the nominal PCE price index falling to 2.3% at the latest update. Bear in mind the following two factors: oil remains bearish as long as it stays below the new technical resistance of $65. The bearish fundamentals are multiple and concern both supply and demand. Finally, this gives grounds for optimism that inflation will continue to fall, despite the trade war. 1) Oil supply & demand: the fundamentals are bearish The two main factors driving down the price of oil in the energy segment of the commodities market are as follows, and concern oil supply. - New historical records for US oil production, which could reach 28 million barrels per day by 2028 under the Trump Administration's drilling policy. By 2025, US oil production is expected to exceed 22 million barrels/day, or more than 20% of global production (see table below, taken from OPEC's latest monthly report). This massive US oil production is the primary explanation for the downward trend in the price of oil on the stock market. - Added to this is the renewed rise in production by OPEC member countries, which between them account for 25% of world production, and even 33% if we include Russia as part of OPEC+. Indeed, strong opposition has erupted within the 12 member countries, and the leader among them (Saudi Arabia, with 9 million barrels a day on its own) has decided to increase its production once again in order to sell more, increase its market share but also drive prices down, and thus “punish” member countries that have not respected production quotas in recent months (notably Iraq and Kazakhstan). This combined increase in production from the USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia is putting downward pressure on prices. 2) Technical analysis of the oil price reveals a bearish message below resistance at $65 The break of support at $65 this spring therefore has strong fundamental justifications, and according to the chartist rule of polarity change, this price level now constitutes major technical resistance. Only the reintegration of this level, i.e. a breakout of resistance on a daily closing basis, would signal a bullish reversal in the price of oil on the stock market. Conclusion: Oil supply (i.e. production) will continue to have a bearish effect on prices this year. For the price of black gold to rebound in any significant way, trade agreements between the USA and China, and the USA and the EU, would be needed to revive the prospects of rising global oil demand. In the absence of this, the price is technically bearish below $65, with the next major support at $45/50. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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NYMEX:CL1!
by Swissquote