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CRUDEOIL1! trade ideas

Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Pattern, Triangle Formation, and Key Back in January, despite strong rise, crude oil has seen limited upside and fully reversed the path. This is partly due to the Trump administration’s goal of bringing crude oil prices lower, with plans to refill the US strategic reserves. In fact data from the Energy Information Administration, showing that production has been gradually increasing since summer of 2023, around the time energy prices hit a swing high near $95. Since then, crude oil has consistently formed lower swing highs. So, if the Trump administration will really boost the oil production, it will likely put more downward pressure on energy prices and help ease inflation; the CPI y/y data, which is highly correlated with crude oil prices, could decline as well as shown on the weekly chart (but this will change if / when economy “booms”). From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking an ongoing A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern, but wave E could still push prices a bit higher, for a rally in the next few weeks, because the pattern appears incomplete. But, once this triangle concludes, I expect a break to the downside. This would likely coincide with lower inflation expectations as mentioned; thus lower US yields, and a weaker US dollar. Overall, my assumption is that crude oil will eventually break below $64 per barrel in 2025! GH
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ew-forecast
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach. Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones. To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators: On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels: Green zones indicate bull support areas. Red zones represent bearish support areas. Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points. The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point: A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas. Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it. Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are: VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile. VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution. Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants. We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile. Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is more likely to happen from here? These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week. This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market. To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out: Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap : The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred. Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts). Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range. Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher. This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red. Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways : We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation. Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected. Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process. This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process. As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge. If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
CRUDE | Descending Triangle Pattern – Bearish Breakout? The chart highlights a Descending Triangle formation, a bearish continuation pattern suggesting potential downside momentum if the support breaks. Resistance Zone: 6310 (aligned with the upper boundary of the triangle). Support Levels: T1: 6280 - T2: 6250 - T3: 6200 Bearish OB (Order Block): The price recently tested the Bearish Order Block near 6,310, reinforcing this level as a strong resistance. Bullish Breakout: A confirmed breakout above 6,310 with strong volume could spark a significant rally, potentially targeting higher resistance levels. Bearish Continuation: A breakdown below 6,280 may open the door for further downside, aiming for 6,250 (T2) and possibly 6,200 (T3). Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for informational purposes only. Please trade responsibly and consult a financial expert before making any trading decisions. Patience and discipline are crucial. Always wait for solid confirmation before entering any trades to minimize risks and align with the trend. If you found this breakdown insightful, don’t forget to like, share, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Your engagement inspires me to share more valuable insights. Let’s keep learning and growing together—happy trading!
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by Shalvisharma5
3
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2. Invalidation is a daily close above 75. short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2
WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle. Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high. While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71. This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive. The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Energy Market Struggles ContinueEnergy markets have been under pressure since the recent highs in mid January. Today, markets like Crude Oil and Natural Gas are seeing selling pressure as both are trading near critical trading levels. The March Crude Oil contract saw a strong move to the upside looking to test the April 2024 highs, and the market entered overbought territory which could have led to some selling pressure. Traders will be watching the Crude Inventories report released tomorrow to gain a better understanding of the current supply and the direction it is moving. Getting away from the technical side of Crude Oil, there is a significant amount of uncertainty surrounding the future supply of Oil, with geopolitical tensions across the world and added tariffs. This market, with both volatility and uncertainty, shines light on the importance of choice of size when trading CME products. The Crude Oil contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance. Finally, we'd like to let all our readers know that CME Group has partnered with TradingView to host The Futures Leap, a 1-month trading challenge through which participants can learn to master futures markets, trade big events and compete for a share of a 25K prize purse. Click here to register for this event. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CLH2025
by CME_Group
Light Crude Oil Bullish Bias: Market Sentiment for Retail As of February 4, 2025, light crude oil prices have been exhibiting an upward trend, influenced by various market dynamics. Current Market Sentiment: Supply Constraints: OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current plan of gradually increasing oil production starting in April, despite pressures to reduce prices. REUTERS.COM Demand Projections: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil consumption will rise from 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 1.1 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 103.9 million bpd. IEA.ORG Geopolitical Factors: Recent U.S. tariffs on major trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, have introduced market uncertainties. These actions could potentially slow U.S. economic growth and increase inflation, factors that may influence oil prices. FT.COM Considerations for Retail Traders: While the current sentiment leans bullish due to supply constraints and projected demand growth, it's essential to remain cautious. Geopolitical developments and policy changes can rapidly alter market conditions. As a retail trader, it's advisable to monitor these factors closely and employ prudent risk management strategies when considering positions in light crude oil. Note: This analysis is based on information available as of February 4, 2025. Market conditions are subject to change, and it's important to stay updated with the latest data and news.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jshafx
CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid VolatilityNYMEX:CL1! With Trade War 2.0 unfolding, managing risk in futures trading is more crucial than ever. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money. Crude Oil Futures: It’s the start of a new month. We saw our last week’s idea “scenario 1” partially play out before prices pulled back higher towards our neutral LIS. As mentioned above, it is our opinion that current situations and macro news may result in heightened volatility, so it is important to trade what you see and not what you think. Do not get fixated on your view on the market. Be ready to shift and adapt as the markets evolve on the hard right edge. Instead of recapping and presenting a macro update today, we will shift our focus on the charts. Looking purely at price, time, volume, and key levels to create a plan for the week. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025 : 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025 : 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 Scenario 1: Rejection confirmation at January 2025 Mid Price has attempted to push above January 2025 mid and was rejected. This was a key level of interest to validate longs in our last week’s trade plan. Rejection of this level and price now below monthly open. There is room for prices to shift lower towards mcVAL Jan 2025 and test of key bull support at yearly open and 2024 mid range. Scenario 2: mcVAL 2025 to act as intermediate support If we see this level hold, in our opinion, Crude oil may be establishing a new range capped within mcVAH and mcVAL Jan 2025 until we see a break of either side. That said, intra day volatility may increase with headline news impacting prices. As always it is paramount to manage your risk as losses are an inherent part of trading. What are you focusing on amid all the headline news? We'd love to hear your thoughts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Oil set to rise as geopolitical tensions and tariffs reshape- Key Insights: Crude oil is displaying a bullish signal after prior declines, with increasing volatility suggesting watchfulness for investors. The key resistance level at $73.79 needs to be breached for a sustained upward trend, while the support at $71.51 provides critical downside protection. - Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: $75.50 T2: $78.00 Stop levels: S1: $72.00 S2: $70.00 - Recent Performance: Crude oil has shown resilience, overcoming previous downturns and demonstrating late bullish activity. The market reacted sharply to news, swinging prices upwards over 3%, confirming sensitivity to external factors. - Expert Analysis: Experts expect crude oil prices to respond positively to geopolitical events, especially with tariffs that could limit supply to the U.S. Traders should be mindful of correlated movements in broader commodity markets, suggesting a favorable environment for oil if it remains above key technical levels. - News Impact: The market faces significant challenges due to a recently imposed 25% tariff on oil imports from Canada and Mexico, expected to constrain supply availability in the U.S. This situation heightens the potential for price increases amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, making it imperative for investors to adapt strategies accordingly.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants. Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period. In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan. The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target: o Entry Zone: An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry. o Stop Loss: Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. o Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level) Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level) Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone. Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL: o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick) Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800. o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580. Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value. Execution and Market Conditions To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.   Key Considerations Before Entering Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure Final Thoughts This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management. For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
9
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is probably finding a bottom here around 72 and on the 4h chart this looks like a lower low major trend reversal. Confirmation would only be above 74 though. So any longs with stop below 71.8 are a good trade from the current structure. Bears have tried to make meaningful lower lows but the Monday low 72.39 was only broken by 47 ticks. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 80 bull case: Bulls let it go a bit below 74 but it does look like they want to buy this more aggressively, given the last 2 big bull bars from Friday. They need to make higher highs now and then I don’t think many bears want to fight this after they have tried to get the market below 71 for a whole week. The 50% retracement for the complete bull trend was around 74 and for the bear leg from 79 down to 72 is around 76. So my first target for the bulls is finding acceptance above 74 and then 76. On the weekly chart you can see than bulls kept it way above the breakout price of 69, so once we are seeing decent 1h closes above 73, they have taken control of the market again. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears want to continue sideways between 71 and 74. The longer they do this, the better for them because we are still below the daily 20ema. Market has gone nowhere the past 5 days but at least the bears closed 4 out of 5 days red. Their issue is, that they can not find sellers below 72 so the market will try only so many times at a support price before it tries the other way or strongly breaks below it. I do think we will see a bigger impulse either on Monday or Tuesday and my money is not on the bears right now. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Slightly bullish until we get a 1h close above 74, then really bullish for 78/80. Bearish only below 71 and on very strong selling pressure. Neutral 71 - 74. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Added broken bear trend line and possible very shallow bull trend lines on higher tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
CL - It's time to make a decision about the next direction!Hi guys, we are looking into Crude Oil today! Currently the Black Gold is sitting on a very important cross road, which is it's current support area. As we know on Saturday President Donald Trump will impose tariffs over to it's neighbours Canada and Mexico. As of today Canada and Mexico, are the two countries which supply the most Oil for the U.S. , we would have an expectation that this would be bullish for the prices of Oil, which is the route that I would personally go for. But as we cannot predict the future, I have presented two options here based on the technical situation, so you can choose how to apply the strategy. Option 1: You are bullish and enter with a purchaisng trade from this level towards the previous resistance area at 79.00 Option 2: You are bearish and expect the support level to be broken and we push for the bottom support area at 67-66 and you can target that price Option 3: You can put a pending order as a sell at the area of 71.50 , to target the 67,66 price tag, or put a pending order at 73.90 to target the upper resistance level at 79.00 Your stop loss would be optimized around the support area so you can have a balanced protection over your trade. Option 3 would be the most optimized for people who are more conservative, and option 1 would be the most optimized for people who have higher Risk Tolerance. I am curious to hear out what is your opinion in the comments about this trade? As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYMEX:CL1!
by DG55Capital