CRUDEOILM1! trade ideas
What is fueling $CL to more upside?The recent test of sub-$70 oil prices appears to have been met with significant buying interest, potentially setting the stage for a reversal back above the $77 mark. The presence of a long wick followed by an inside bar could signal further upward momentum.
Bull Case:
There's strong evidence of support, particularly from the buying activity observed a few days ago. Although we remain in a bearish stance, having not closed above $77.58, breaching this level could set us on a direct path towards retesting the $95 level.
Bear Case:
However, it's critical to consider the inability of oil prices to break through the monthly or weekly downtrend angles. The notion of retesting $95 seems overly optimistic at this stage. It's more realistic to anticipate a rebalance at the bearish candle, tempering expectations. The $77.58 mark could act as a formidable barrier, potentially driving prices back down to around $67.
Conclusion:
The market is currently exhibiting a wedging pattern, which is generally unfavorable for long-term positions. Should we witness an opening and closing above this bearish order block, it may pave the way for a retest of the $80 levels.
Oil long.12.8.23 There was an opening price long trade on oil yesterday near the end of that trading day. There was also another chance with an opening price to go along today but at a slightly higher level. that trade would have been an easy trade if you recognized that it had a support it had an extension which was the 1.272.... and then you have a small stop. The market very well could have gone lower but there was enough evidence to take a chance to go along with a small stop because you had a very easy chance of the market moving up a couple thousand dollars or more. on the other hand, as the market moves higher we may find that sellers will step in and it is possible that the market could make a new low. However, It was worth taking a long position if you could do this with a small stop and a nice reward.
Crude is Trading in 1H Downtrend Channel Crude is Trading in 1H Downtrend Channel
If Brreaks channel and retests then good upside
if reverses from here then downside
good risk reward play here
Understanding the Basics of Market StructureIntroduction:
In the vast and dynamic world of financial markets, understanding market structure is paramount for traders and investors seeking to navigate the complexities of buying and selling assets. Market structure encompasses a range of elements that shape how markets function and how prices are determined. This article delves into the fundamental components of market structure, shedding light on the key factors that influence market dynamics.
Components of Market Structure:
Market Participants:
Market structure is inherently defined by its participants, including buyers, sellers, institutional investors, and market makers. Each participant plays a unique role, contributing to the overall ebb and flow of the market.
Order Types:
The diversity of order types, such as market orders, limit orders, and stop orders, significantly influences market structure. Understanding how these orders interact provides insights into the mechanics of price movements.
Market Exchanges:
Exchanges serve as the backbone of market structure, providing a platform for the trading of financial instruments. Whether centralized or decentralized, exchanges shape the landscape of trading activities.
Market Phases:
Bull and Bear Markets:
Market structure undergoes distinct changes during bull and bear markets. Recognizing the characteristics of each phase is crucial for anticipating shifts in sentiment and making informed decisions.
Cycles and Trends:
Market cycles and trends contribute to the dynamic nature of market structure. Observing structural changes during different phases helps traders adapt to evolving market conditions.
Case Studies:
UPTREND / BULL MARKET:
When the market exhibits an uptrend structure, our focus should be directed towards identifying opportunities to go long or initiate buy positions.
DOWNTREND / BEAR MARKET:
When the market adopts a downtrend structure, our attention should be centered on identifying opportunities to sell or go short.
NO TREND / SIDEWAYS
When the market is moving sideways without a clear trend, it's a good idea to be careful and closely check the market conditions. Opportunities for buying or selling might be limited during these times. Traders can use specific strategies for this situation, like sticking to a range or paying attention to support and resistance levels.
In such a case, it's smart to think about leaving your current position and being cautious by not getting too involved in the market. Since there's no clear trend, avoiding unnecessary risks can help protect against potential uncertainties and unpredictable price changes.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, a comprehensive grasp of market structure is indispensable for anyone engaging in financial markets. As markets continue to evolve, adapting to changes in structure becomes a key factor in achieving success. By understanding the basics outlined in this article, traders and investors can navigate the intricate web of market structure with greater confidence.
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only.
[MCX] Crudeoil Buy IdeaNote -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives.
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Oil Bargain Hunt Dip BuyI am looking for an opportunity to bargain hunt dip buy on Oil and here is why.
So oil has been very bearish in recent weeks and not surprising given the bearish fundamentals such as the recent OPEC meeting not giving clarity to the market, Demand worries due to slowdown in manufacturing in major economies like the U.S and China and slowdown in smaller / lesser developed nations even U.S oil inventories and Production starting to stack up raising concerns of an ample supply and not enough demand leading to lower prices on oil.
But with all that being said how much of that is priced into the market? As we all know markets don't just go in a straight direction up or down, there are areas of support / areas of interest that can have rebounds, reversals, turns, whatever you want to call them. And I think $65 looks like a great area for a technical rebound.
The $65 level has proved itself 5 different times in the past and has been an even better buy signal when the RSI is oversold. Right now the RSI is pretty oversold and if we were to go lower here and hit this strong support it's likely that the RSI will either be extremally oversold to the point where it would be super unwise to short or bullishly diverging which will also be a great reversal signal. Given the fundamental outlook I think it is likely we hit the $65 level but I think we can see some bargain hunting and a technical rebound given the technician's of the chart.
So the criteria goes as followed and I will only execute a long if we 1. Hit the $65 level and 2. The RSI is either extremally oversold to the point where it would be unwise to short or Bullishly diverging indicting a shift in direction. If this criteria is not met I will just ignore it.
But with that being said stay tuned for more and manage your speculations ;)
NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! TVC:USOIL
DR IDR confirmation short retirement setupretirement setup opened during RDR with the dr idr for a short trade.
dr confirmation short crude oildr idr price confirmed on the shortside analyzed dr lens max retracement and max extension for projecting price possibly going on the downside.
More Weakness to Come for Crude? Crude oil has experienced a decline of over $13 from its 2023 highs, reflecting traders' anticipation of weaker economic growth and a slowing consumer. Despite OPEC's announcement of additional production cuts and the ongoing efforts of member countries to defend prices throughout the year, it is evident that the market is bracing for diminished demand.
Recent Developments:
Recent figures from the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model for Q4 reported a growth rate of 1.2%, falling short of the expected 1.8%. Additionally, this week's JOLTs numbers for Job Openings came in at 8.73 million, below the expected 9.3 million, and ADP Non-Farm Payrolls on December 6th registered 103k, lower than the anticipated 130k. These indicators indicate emerging signs of a weakening labor market, prompting expectations of interest rate cuts as early as March 2024.
More Selling to Come?
The occurrence of the Death Cross, observed in the crude market on November 30th when the 50-Day EMA crossed below the 200-Day EMA, suggests potential further downside momentum. While technical analysis indicates the likelihood of additional downward movement, significant support is anticipated at the psychologically significant $70 level. Continued weakness in economic data could, however, pose challenges for crude's ability to maintain support in the near term
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Disclaimers:
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SHORT CRUDE OIL ❗❗Crude took a very good rejection in fib most important zone
By looking at cfd chart crude can show a good move toward downside
We can sell crude at cmp 6350 with a sl of 6650. Can expect a target of 6000-5800
It a like of swing trade....
CL1! Crude Oil Day Trade 6-Dec-2023TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT; as indicated by the red EMA cloud and the market structure.
KEY LEVEL:
1) Round numbers S&R with 25 ticks range between each level (hidden)
2) Monthly, Weekly and Daily Pivot levels.
TRIGGER SIGNAL: Price broke the previous day's low (green circle) and retraced to the bearish EMA cloud. A bearish pin bar (in yellow circle) formed as a sign sellers are ready to push the price down. The Profit target is set to be 3 ticks above the Daily S3 (white circle).
RR: 1:1.56
SL: 54 Ticks
TP: 84 Ticks (achieved)
Crude Oil Futures Technical AnalysisOil should find a bottom around this support zone between $67.05 and $72.26 a barrel. If it does and starts to rally higher, there is major resistance at the $72.26 level. If this level is broken, the next resistance level is around $81.50, with substantial resistance up at $93.74 per barrel. If Oil can break the $93.74 level, it will likely make a run back to the highs.
Crude Oil: Is There a New Slump Loooming?WTI crude oil futures stabilized at over $73 a barrel Tuesday on a possible technicalrebound. Investors are still assessing the global oil supply and demand situation while prices have posted a loss of more than 6 percent in the last three trading sessions.
There are doubts about supply reduction by OPEC+ that may not have a significant impact on prices, and negative economic data from major economies are increasing fears of a decrease in energy demand.
Last week, some OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) members including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait voluntarily announced further production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, while others have not yet made any commitments.
In addition, the Saudi energy minister told Bloomberg on Monday that the cuts can "absolutely" continue beyond the first quarter if necessary. Meanwhile, traders remained concerned about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East after the escalation of fighting in the Gaza Strip over the weekend.
The market is looking ahead to 2024 with concern about a possible oversupply in the first quarter of next year due to seasonally lower demand. However, OPEC+ has recently taken steps to prevent this expected surplus.
Observed & Projected Crude Oil InventoriesObserved & Projected Crude Oil Inventories
Saudi Arabia and Russia have decided to extend voluntary supply cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2024, and other members have announced further supply reductions.
I am concerned about what is happening. For an investor, hearing about "voluntary cuts" is a nightmare.
An organization like OPEC cannot afford such a situation, and the same goes for a CEO who has to be crystal clear when providing business estimates. It is clear that the market has reacted negatively to this news, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely.
The latest OPEC+ meeting highlighted some important issues within the group. First, some members (notably Angola) are dissatisfied with their production quotas for 2024 and have stated that they will reject their quota level for next year.
However, from the supply side, given the pressure we have seen on Angolan production, this is unlikely to have much impact on the market. The biggest concern for OPEC+ should be the fact that they have been unable to agree on group-wide cuts, with some members choosing voluntary cuts instead.
Futures Petrolio Greggio Leggero Daily ChartFutures Petrolio Greggio Leggero Daily Chart
This chaos within the group is making it increasingly difficult for some members to endure further cuts.
From a technical point of view, the graphical situation is not positive. Prices remain below the moving average of 100, and the bearish trend is supported by above-average volumes.
In my previous research, I correctly predicted the collapse of oil prices and achieved my goal.
However, for the first quarter of 2023, I update my oil price estimates to $65. My negative view is influenced by the growth in U.S. oil supply, which has exceeded expectations in 2023 with a projected growth of one million barrels per day to a record 12.9 million barrels per day.
This abundant increase in supply is hurting oil prices, and the chaotic situation within OPEC is not helping.
Oil (CL) Should See at Least 3 Waves Rally SoonCycle from 9.28.2023 high in Oil (CL) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9.28.2023 high, wave 1 ended at 81.50 and rally in wave 2 ended at 90.78. Oil then extended lower in wave 3 towards 72.16. Wave 4 at 79.55 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 78.22, and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 73.79. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 79.55 which completed wave 4. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 77.15 and wave (ii) ended at 74.06. Wave (iii) ended at 79.6, wave (iv) ended at 77.91, and wave (v) ended at 79.55 which completed wave ((c)) of 4.
Oil has turned lower in wave 5. Internal subdivision of wave 5 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. Down from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 75.05 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 77.07. Oil then turns lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 75.1 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 76.76. Oil extends lower in wave (iii) towards 72.86, wave (iv) ended at 74.20, and final leg wave (v) ended at 72.63 which completed wave ((iii)). Wave ((iv)) correction ended at 74.12. Expect Oil to extend lower in wave ((v)) of 5. Near term, as far as pivot at 79.55 stays intact, Oil has scope to extend a bit lower to end the 5 waves move before larger 3 waves rally takes place.
