We now have a direction for GOLDSeems the entire market was waiting on Trump to do his thing. Now that we have that news out the way on Tarrifs the market is much more likely to give up a direction. Grounds for much safter plays.
GOLDM1! trade ideas
Gold running out of Gas to keep pushing up!I have been waiting for a solid pull back. Price looks like it wants to give it up. But since it is so bullish I have to wait for it to show its hand first before assuming. If price wants to continue with the strong bullish action I feel they need to come back and correct some of the price action first. Looking for signs they want to continue for Asian Session.
Gold Is Trading Near Record Highs. What Does Its Chart Say?Gold TVC:GOLD hit a record high recently on global trade tensions before pulling back following release of President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. What does fundamental and technical analysis say could be next for the precious metal?
Let’s check it out:
Gold’s Fundamental Analysis
The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank recently revised its well-known GDPNow model for first-quarter gross domestic product to a -2.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate.
However, the bank also estimated Q1 GDP at just -0.8% when adjusted for rising U.S. gold imports vs. exports.
Wait a minute! Do you mean that the Atlanta Fed runs two GDP models -- one that includes the cross-border gold trade and one that doesn’t? Yes, I do.
U.S. gold exports have been rising because some of the world’s central banks -- most notably, China and Russia’s -- have become large net buyers of physical gold.
Both countries are members of the so-called “BRICS” -- a group of non-Group of Seven nations like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (hence the “BRICS” name).
The BRICS have often hinted at creating some kind of a monetary union that would produce a single currency to rival the U.S. dollar’s current status as the world’s “reserve” form of cash.
This new BRICS form of money could either exist alongside each country’s own national currency or actually replace them (along the lines of what happened with the European Union’s creation of the euro).
Now, EU nations participating in the single-currency zone have had to largely surrender their monetary sovereignty. That's something I really could never see China, Russia, India or Brazil being willing to do.
That said, there’s talk of the BRICS creating something like the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. But unlike SDRs, the BRICS would back their new currency by a hard asset like gold. That could put the U.S. dollar on the defensive.
Such a currency could become the preferred unit of trade for global commodities, or at least some global commodities between certain trading partners.
Gold’s Technical Analysis
Coupled with all of the recent global trade tensions, the central-bank purchases have created incredible demand for gold – boosting the metal’s price. Let’s the chart for check out Comex gold futures COMEX:GC1! going back to September 2022 and running through midweek last week:
Readers will see in this chart of Comex front-month gold futures (presented in the form of one continuous contract) that the metal been in a steady uptrend for more than 2-1/2 years. I’ve captured this in a Raff Regression model above.
After testing the model’s lower bound for much of late 2023/early 2024, gold recently brushed up against the model's upper trendline, then broke out.
Not surprisingly, Comex gold’s Relative Strength Index -- the gray line at the chart’s top -- is now rather strong and even close to technically overbought territory (above 70).
That’s historically where gold futures weaken briefly prior to pushing even higher. (Obviously, past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
Meanwhile, the Comex contract’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence index (or “MACD,” marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) looks very bullish.
The 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is above zero, as is the 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line). The 12-day line is also above the 26-day line. All of that is typically positive when charting a security.
Also note that this contract has been above all three of its key moving averages since testing the 21-day EMA (denoted with a green line above) on March 13.
Additionally, the contract has been solidly above both its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above) and its 200-day SMA (the red line) going back to mid-January.
That sort of set-up will often slow down portfolio managers who might otherwise be thinking about reducing their overall gold exposure.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle owned gold ETF shares and physical gold at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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Can Gold Continue Higher? Last month, I pointed out that Large Speculators started to close out their net-long positions in Gold futures, betting on the possibility of a reversal as they attempted to time the market turn at all-time highs. This behavior continued for several weeks, yet Gold’s price continued its upward rally, leaving many traders scratching their heads. What’s particularly puzzling is the lack of chasing in this rally, especially considering the massive price movement since then. This is particularly surprising because Large Speculators, for the most part, are trend-followers — and right now, the trend in Gold is unmistakably bullish.
When comparing positioning in Gold to Silver, there’s a distinct difference. While Large Speculators initially followed the rally in Silver, continuing to buy as Silver lagged behind Gold, this strategy was much more reactive. Silver’s underperformance relative to Gold made sense, given that Silver is more crowded than Gold — meaning there’s less demand and fewer buyers.
The key takeaway from this analysis is that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report can offer valuable insights into which market presents the better risk/reward trade. In this case, the COT report highlighted Gold as the superior trend to follow, especially for traders looking to capitalize on precious metals amidst all the tariff news and rising market uncertainty. By using the COT, traders can refine their strategies to focus on trends with more significant potential, rather than getting distracted by more volatile, crowded trades.
Be the Choosy trader on Gold!Price is dragging on dropping. being very indecisive. Looks like the entire market is waiting on News to help give it a push. I need to see price break out of value before I can get a read on a sold move. in the mean time this is sclaping conditions. You can hold trades. Have to cut them short quick with this price action. Since we have some USD news tomorrow that indicates that the market might be waiting for that before proceeding on any decisions. Patience is key!
Gold Futures: Flight of the PhoenixCOMEX:GC1!
Gold Futures Analysis:
Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively balanced, with bearish sentiment materializing, if prices drop below and stay below the $65 mark.
Gold futures, however, are offering more defined risk-reward opportunities at the moment. Our analysis shows a macro bullish trend in gold, along with price discovery and market auction trends visible on lower timeframes.
On the 4-hour chart below, we observe a rising upward channel, with key levels identified and reasoning for these levels labeled on the chart.
Key Levels:
• ATH: 3201.6
• HVN (High Volume Node) for long entry: 3115
• LVN (Low Volume Node)/LIS for short entry: 3095.1
• Key LVN Support: 3003.7-3018
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
If Gold futures stay below the trend line that defines both our long and short trade ideas, the bearish scenario could materialize. For a short trade to be viable, we would look for a close below the LVN/LIS level (3095.1) and enter on a pullback, targeting the major LVN support zone around 3018.0.
Example trade parameters for Scenario 1:
• Entry: 3095.1
• Stop: 3125
• Target: 3018
• Risk: 29.9 points
• Reward : 77.1 points
• Risk to Reward Ratio: RRR=77.1/29.9 ≈2.58
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal
In the event that Gold futures push back towards all-time highs due to heightened uncertainty and a flight to safety, we expect initial profit-taking by shorter timeframe traders to provide a pullback. This could present a long opportunity towards the all-time highs.
Example trade parameters for Scenario 2:
• Entry: 3115
• Stop: 3095
• Target: 3200
• Risk : 20 points
• Reward : 85 points
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: RRR= 85/20 = 4.25
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
Gold Trade Review – Potential Pop, Drop, then ATH's SetupWe are currently watching a potential pop and drop and potential ATH scenario developing in gold. Price is holding above a key daily level at $3,021.4 , which will serve as the critical pivot area. A sustained move below this level will likely trigger continuation toward the next significant daily level at $2,968.5 for T1, and potentially further into the weekly/daily support zone at $2,953.2 , with an extended target at the daily level of $2,929.0.
I would expect that zone to provide support, though there is an untested area lower near the recent lows at $2,893.6. Ideally, I do not want to see price move much beyond our first weekly/daily support zone mentioned above but would lean on the lower level as a last ditch effort to hold the structure.
From the current price structure, based on Fridays close there's also potential for a move higher into (#1) $3,058 , which is an untested daily level (approached from below). If this level acts as firm resistance, it could trigger the anticipated drop into the zones outlined above. Keeping an eye on being above or below $3,021.4 will be critical for progression in either direction.
GOLD finally Moving right again!Been waiting for the correction to happen to give better opportunities for a long. Now that they have pulled back and fixed the gap they left I think it will continue with its bullish pressure. monitor for entries and ride the wave.
Gold futures trend directionGold futures 88130 - is at raising flag pattern. Expected to drop down to test 86163
GOLD - New Week, New Month, New Quarter! = Opportunity Gold has not been moving how I feel it normally should. The last 2 weeks have been extremely bullish with no significant pullbacks. I believe they wanted to close last month completely bullish before they offer the solid pullback that we are looking for. Also this is a new quarter. Taking it easy as we come into this new quarter but keeping a eye on all the signs for direction.
We Have direction. We wait on confirmation! GOLD!Looking for price to give is a little more indication that it wants to continue bullish. We have areas to fill on larger time frames before it gives us a stronger play for bigger moves. Just have to be patient and wait for price to give us more solid indication. As Always #NOFOMO!
Gold 2025What does Gold have in store for us, i still believe we get a deeper correction before we continue the rally higher. The way I see the market playing out is indicated. I do think that $3000 will be a reasonable target before we probably revert to a range of $2000/$3000
GLD keeps surging in steps of 21.37% Why this number?Time for Gold to rest pause consolidate after climbing 21.37%. What's with this number? Even the best can't climb Mt Everest in one go. They must rest at every base camp, so must gold
A Gold'en Newtonian Sell-Off Porjected By MedianlinesSir Isaac Newton stated the Third Law of Motion in his landmark work, Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica (commonly called the Principia), which was first published in 1687. This law appears in Book I, in the section titled Axioms, or Laws of Motion.
(Axiom: A self-evident truth)
Newton did explicitly present it as an axiom. In fact, it's Axiom III (or Law III) of his three fundamental laws of motion. Here's how he phrased it in the original Latin and in his own English translation:
"To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction: or the mutual actions of two bodies upon each other are always equal, and directed to contrary parts."
And what does this have to do with Medianlines / pitchforks?
This tool measures exactly that: the action — and the potential reaction!
Medianline traders know that pitchforks project the most probable direction that a market will follow. And that direction is based on the previous action, which triggered a reaction and thus initiated the path the market has taken so far.
…a little reciprocal, isn’t it? ;-)
So how does this fit into the chart?
The white pitchfork shows the most probable direction. It also outlines the extreme zones — the upper and lower median lines — and in the middle, the centerline, the equilibrium.
We see an “undershoot,” meaning a slightly exaggerated sell-off in relation to the lower extreme (the lower median line). And now, as of today, we’re seeing this overreaction mirrored exactly at the upper median line!
Question:
What happened after the lower “overshoot”?
New Question:
What do you think will happen now, after the market has overshot the upper median line?
100% guaranteed?
Nope!
But the probability is extremely high!
And that’s all we have when it comes to “predicting” in trading — probabilities.
Why? Because we can’t see the future, can we?
Gold?
Short!
Looking forward to constructive comments and input from you all
Long trade
Pair GC1!
Buyside trade
NY Session PM
Thu 3rd April 25
7.00 pm approx.
Entry 3175.7
Profit level 3196.6 (0.66%)
Stop level 3173.6 (0.07%) RR 9.95
Reason: Observing price action on the 1min TF seemed indicative of a buyside trade based on the narrative of of demand and demand for directional bias. Entry 1min TF
1min TF overview
Not Even Gold Escaped the Volatility of Liberation DayWe finally saw the shakeout on gold I was expecting around $3000. This clearly changes things for gold traders over the near-term, even though the fundamentals remain in place for bulls. I highlight key levels for gold and take a look at the devastation left across key assets on Thursday.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Hilarious algo failImagine getting one hour to think about what to do after the Trump speech, and coming up with the idea to sell your only winner (gold futures) at market price immediately after the one hour break, lol. Probably sold it to buy more index futures, lol, morons.
Apparent that is what at least one of the algos did. It looks like all of the algos are desperate for cash right now because gold futures are not tracking spot price. (I posted a plot)
If you bought GLD like I did, look at spot pricing XAU/USD tomorrow, not futures GC1!. We're up over 1% now.
Year ahead 25' GoldGOLD Analysis
The uptrend channel remains intact, with price currently trading near the uptrend line. I’ll shift to lower timeframes to explore intraday opportunities.
Always consider all potential price movements and prioritize trades with the highest probability of success. Remember, patience and precision are essential for maintaining an edge in the markets.
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 5th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). After a brief correction at the pivot forecast on March 19 (see the previous post), gold resumed its bullish trend at the extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury.
⚠️ Holding the long position from the extreme forecast on March 3. The movement range to the pivot forecast on March 19 for GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. Those who took profits, I hope you reopened long positions. The next extreme forecast for gold is April 7.
The day's rebound is mainly highAt present, the gold market has been fluctuating in the range for some time, and the market has not made a directional choice, which means that the gold price will continue to fluctuate during the day, and it is a downward flag adjustment range. For our operation layout, we should keep high-altitude and low-multiple in the range.
In the oscillating market, we mainly focus on the recent direction. It is obvious that it is a short-selling oscillation after the top falls. In the range, high-altitude and low-multiple are the first to focus on the opportunity of shorting. In this market at noon, we still need to continue to wait for the opportunity to short. From the four-hour trend, the upper pressure is focused on the 3036 line, and the lower support is near the support level of 3010!
Gold operation suggestions: short near 3032-3036, stop loss 3042, target 3015
Long trade
30min TF overview
1min TF Entry
Pair GC1!
Buyside trade
NY Session AM
10.00 am
Entry 3023.2
Profit level 3042.5 (0.64%)
Stop level 3020.6 (0.09%)
RR 7.42
Reason: Looking left at previous price action and respected levels along with the Periodic Volume Profile (PVP) indicator and ascending channel seemed to suggest we were at a prime demand level indicative of a buyside trade.
Gold ExpansionCOMEX:GC1! reversed off the weekly average zone and is gradually working through that 4H FVG.
Looking for a clean break above it, then a retrace back to that zone. My target is the Daily Major Buyside Liquidity, with an eye on a potential extension toward the Weekly Average Expansion area if momentum holds.
