Gold ShortI’m observing a potential short opportunity on gold using Fibs. After a bullish move, gold is approaching a 50% golden zone for an entry.
GOLDM2! trade ideas
Bearish continuation Flag indicating Gold Fall towards 2665 $Short Entry Zone 2710-2700 Future contract
Profit taking zone 2665
Stop Loss( Risk 5% of equity) recommended because in this zone I prefer averaging trade with Max risk of 5% of equity
Bearish flag formation which indicate heavy price fall.
A **bearish continuation flag** is a technical chart pattern often observed in financial markets, indicating the potential continuation of a downward price trend. Here's a breakdown of the pattern:
Components of a Bearish Flag:
1. **Preceding Downtrend (Flagpole)**
- A sharp, steep decline in price that forms the "flagpole."
- Represents strong selling pressure.
2. **Consolidation Phase (Flag)**
- Following the decline, the price consolidates in a relatively narrow range.
- This consolidation typically takes the form of a small, upward-sloping rectangle or channel, showing a temporary pause in the trend.
3. **Breakout to the Downside**
- The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, resuming the downtrend.
- The breakout is often accompanied by increased trading volume.
Characteristics:
- **Trend Direction**: Continuation of a bearish trend.
- **Volume**: Declines during the consolidation phase and increases on the breakout.
- **Duration**: Flags are generally short-term patterns, lasting a few days to a few weeks.
- **Measured Move**: The expected price drop after the breakout is often equal to the length of the flagpole projected downward from the breakout point.
Trading the Pattern:
1. **Entry**: Enter a short position once the price breaks below the flag's lower boundary.
2. **Stop-Loss**: Place a stop-loss above the upper boundary of the flag to limit risk.
3. **Target**: Use the length of the flagpole to estimate the target price for the trade.
Example in a Chart:
Visualize a steep price drop, followed by a slight upward or sideways drift resembling a "flag," and then another drop once the price breaks below the flag's support.
Gold silver oil coffee12.10.24 there is some important follow-up on gold and silver. those markets have expanded. what this means is that trade location changes as well. when markets expand and contract this affects trade location for buyers and sellers. regarding coffee there is a two bar reversal pattern that suggests that the Market's going to trade lower a short position here with a small stop and then if we don't get stopped out we can make more judgments depending on how the market moves.
Gold Is GO! And Everything Lined UpThe open was above the Center-Line and everything else lined up nicely.
To me this is a fair Long, with a good Stop below the last MoMo Candle.
I like to take partial profits, so I have two in this case. The first at the 1/4 line, since price has a tendency to bounce there. The second one is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel (U-MLH).
Let the fireworks begin
GOLD a little nudge to the downsideWhat a nice upside from my last update!
Sadly, entry did not get filled.
BUt for now we are on a fast support to resistance flip that is easily seen.
A big win for a small validation.
Nice setup!
Gold (MGCG2025): A Technical Perspective and Market OutlookGold prices have seen a slight decline today, with spot gold trading down 0.3% at $2,672.25 per ounce and U.S. gold futures dropping 0.6% to $2,692.70 as of 0914 GMT. Despite the dip, gold remains on track for a weekly gain, fueled by anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.
The Fed is widely expected to deliver its third rate cut of the year, a move that has underpinned bullion’s appeal. Notably, gold reached a five-week high in the previous session, spurring profit-taking and subsequent price adjustments.
Weekly Overview
Gold has risen over 1% this week, demonstrating resilience amidst market uncertainties. The five-week high indicates strong bullish sentiment, but the recent pullback suggests a healthy correction before the market determines its next direction.
Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Time Frame
On the 1-hour chart, gold appears to be gravitating toward a supply zone between $2,700 and $2,711. This range represents a critical resistance area, where selling pressure is likely to increase. The price action in this zone will be pivotal in defining short-term market sentiment.
Key Observations:
Supply Zone: $2,700 - $2,711.
Downward Target: If gold fails to break above the supply zone, the likely move will be a short towards $2,680. This level represents a strong support zone, aligning with recent price activity and technical indicators.
Indicators: Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions as the price approaches the $2,700-$2,711 zone, further supporting the case for a pullback.
Trading Strategy
For traders, the current market setup presents both opportunities and risks:
Short Positions: Consider entering short positions if gold shows rejection at the $2,700-$2,711 supply zone, targeting $2,680. A tight stop-loss above $2,711 is recommended to manage risk.
Watch for Breakouts : If gold breaks above $2,711 with strong volume, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, invalidating the short bias.
Final Thoughts
Gold’s performance this week highlights its role as a safe-haven asset in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties. The Fed’s policy meeting next week will likely be a significant driver of gold’s trajectory. While the immediate technical outlook suggests a potential pullback, traders should remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
A quick gain of 4% on Gold Trade can be entered at the breakout of neckline around 2625.4 for the TP of 2521.7 with a Stop loss of 2728
Gold Futures Trade Idea
Gold futures have broken out of multi-year resistance levels and are trading near all-time highs. After trending higher for most of 2024, the focus shifts to where prices will move in 2025 and the remaining weeks of the year.
Several macroeconomic factors will influence gold's trajectory, including:
1. Geopolitical landscape
2. Interest rates and inflation outlook
3. Supply and demand dynamics
In the next two weeks, significant data points and economic events will shape the market. Central banks worldwide are set to adjust interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on December 18, 2024. Key considerations will include any shift in language about future rate cuts and the dot plot from the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the U.S. CPI report, due Wednesday, will be closely watched.
Key Levels to Watch:
Line in the Sand (LIS): 2673.80–2684.50
Resistance: 2740–2760
Support: 2552.50–2566.80
Three Possible Scenarios for Gold Futures Prices:
1. Bullish Break Above LIS:
A breakout and sustained hold above the LIS could push prices higher toward resistance levels. This scenario might be driven by softer CPI data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including potential future rate cuts. A lower inflation environment could provide further tailwinds for gold.
2. Pullback Toward Support:
If prices break and hold below the LIS, clearing recent consolidation lows around 2630, a decline toward the support zone is likely. This scenario aligns with persistent inflation, leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment in 2025. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions under the new U.S. administration could shift focus toward domestic policies, potentially reducing gold's safe-haven appeal.
3. Range-Bound Price Action:
Gold prices could consolidate near current highs, trading within a range below all-time highs. This scenario reflects a lack of decisive inflows or outflows, with market participants waiting for clearer cues to shape the price trajectory in 2025.
As the year concludes, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and technical levels will determine whether gold continues its upward momentum, retraces to support, or stabilizes in a range. Stay tuned for key economic releases to guide near-term price action.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Gold December 4th the gold market is the guinea pig because there are some issues with my terminology that need to be clarified. I've been using some incorrect terminology when I use the term bull flag or Bear Flag and I looked it up and that made things worse so I explained here what I mean. also I know people will have problems with my terminology regarding 2 bar reversals. I discovered that pattern and I didn't get it from books but I know the pattern works because other people must be using it.... because it works. so I'm not inventing any tools I'm simply looking at patterns that are reversal patterns in the market that can happen for many reasons and the beautiful thing about a two-bar reversal is that I can use it with a daily chart and a four-hour chart. sometimes the daily chart closest at a high or near the high and that represents 1 bar.... and then the next bar on the opening price produces another bar and the pattern between yesterday's market and today's market May give me a 2 bar reversal. the pattern of that trade requires yesterday's bar and today's bar... so you have a two-bar reversal from a bar generating yesterday with a bar generated today.
Oher times you have a 2 bar reversal within 1 day of trading. there is another point to this and that is that some of the best trades happen on the opening price which is a part of the current day and happens when most Traders are not following that market. what I'm saying is not complicated but it takes time to look at these markets and think about the market before you trade the market. this process takes time and you will learn when the conditions are a little more complex and involve opening price trades that you can get a feel for when you enter the market or not.... sometimes you need the market to move a little bit first before you commit.
Gold Outlook for December 2024Sticking with my conviction that we have indeed capped the high for Gold for 2024 and have already fulfilled a 30% retracement back into the overall range. We could potentially be ranging for the remainder of the year. I'm anticipating major breakouts within Q1 of 2025. If gold decides to breakout of its current range prior to 2025, then I would be anticipating a buy-side manipulation to take price lower towards the equal lows inside of Q3 of 2024. Let me know if you have any comments or questions below, or just your overall thoughts as well. Bless.
Gold break out to the top or for a retrace tomorrow or overnightGold went on a tear after gapping up and cleaning up the gap in the overnight session. With Daytrader pivots resistance levels being so close compared to yesterday it stands to reason one side or the other will be broken. Which side will it? We dont know. But if it breaks one side or the other we will be watching for a quick retrace to join in the right directions!
Waiting for a breakout towards Demand/Supplyhere's my analysis of GC1, as you can see I've marked my Supply and Demand area where price will react to, and previously the market was in a downtrend and CHoC occurred which formed our HH and HL, and between these we have our small range which indicates that neither the Bulls or Bears are in control. My analysis shows that its best to wait for a breakout on the Highest High or on the Highest low then we can enter our trades, the price can breakout either way so it's best to wait, TP will either be Demand/Supply area, use H1 for candlestick confirmation
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-9: Nothing PatternI'm visiting family most of this week and will be disrupted from my normal schedule for another 3+ days.
Please be aware I may not be as available for questions/comments as I usually am.
Please watch how the markets are extremely overbought at this moment and will likely fall into a pullback mode.
I don't expect this to be a big pullback - but big enough that you should consider locking in profits before the move plays out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Range-Bound: Watch 2640 for BreakdownGold fell today but remains within its established range. To confirm further downside, a break below 2640 is needed. While my bias is bearish, there is still potential for price to return to the range, which is between 2645 and 2680.
Short Position on GoldEntering a short position on Gold at 2680 to further build on my medium- to long-term bearish stance.
Good JobI just want you to know that you do a good job 👍. Thank you for your hard efforts in fighting against the bad job 👎. Continue to do the good job 👍. Thank you for your service Champion!
Head and Shoulder Pattern indicates Gold fall 2600$ Short entry between 2650-2670
Profit Taking zones are 2630-2600-2575
Max risk 5% of equity with averaging strategy in zone of 2650-2670
Bearish Head and Shoulder Pattern indicates more deep fall in Gold towards $2630-$2600-$2575
My chart analysis on gold futures contract
Neck Line is retesting again and again which will be attraction for buyers but be cautious.
Head and Shoulders Top (Bearish Reversal)
This pattern occurs after an uptrend and signals that the price is likely to reverse and head downward. It consists of three main peaks:
Structure
Left Shoulder:
The price rises to a peak and then declines.
Head:
The price rises again to a higher peak (the "head") and then declines.
Right Shoulder:
The price rises to a lower peak, roughly equal to the Left Shoulder, and then falls back down.
Neckline:
The line connecting the lows between the shoulders and the head. It acts as support.
A break below the neckline confirms the pattern.
Steps to Identify
Uptrend before the formation.
Three peaks: Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder.
The neckline acts as the key support level.
When the price breaks the neckline downward, it signals a bearish reversal.
How Traders Use It
Once the neckline is broken, traders expect the price to fall further.
The expected drop is calculated as:
Distance from the Head to the Neckline = Expected move downward.
Gold Positioned for Further Gains Amidst Economic UncertaintyRecent Performance: Gold has seen substantial fluctuations in recent months,
reaching record highs while also facing notable resistances. With a year-to-
date appreciation exceeding 30%, gold has outperformed other major asset
classes, benefitting from a flight to safety as inflation rates continue to
rise and geopolitical tensions create uncertainty.
- Key Insights: Investors should maintain a close watch on gold as it reveals
robust demand against a backdrop of inflation and currency devaluation. The
support levels between 2400 and 2500 provide a buffer against potential
downturns, while the bullish sentiment surrounding central bank activity
underlines gold's status as a critical component of investment strategies.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts
divided. Bullish views on gold stand strong, yet some concern exists
regarding possible bearish trends in silver. Experts from firms such as
Goldman Sachs warn of high price multiples in the equity markets, cautioning
investors of a potential downturn while underscoring gold's attractiveness
amid economic fluctuations and interest rate discussions.
- Price Targets: Based on professional trading insights, the following targets
and stop levels are set for the coming week:
- Next week targets: T1 is 2750, T2 is 2835
- Stop levels: S1 is 2600, S2 is 2550
- News Impact: Recent inflation trends have introduced short-term volatility in
gold prices, yet central bank strategies continue to support a bullish
outlook for gold in the long term. The anticipation of interest rate cuts
will be pivotal, increasing gold's allure in investment portfolios,
particularly as it maintains strength against currency fluctuations and
challenges in other asset classes.
GC (GOLD) Looking bullish for the new week. Looking for Bullish play action on GOLD for the week. Last gave a healthy pullback into the current value area on a larger scale but looking for a return to value on a smaller scale that can lead to much bigger breakout.
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Very strong rally Mo-Wednesday just to almost completely reverse and close the week 11 points above the open. Rallies getting stuffed hard now and bulls will only try so many times until we test lower prices. 2630 is the price for bears to break and bulls need anything above 2760 again. It’s much more likely that we close 2024 around 2700. Market has also formed another triangle on the daily/weekly chart, so don’t expect a trending market for the next 3 weeks.
Quote from last week:
comment : I won’t waste much time with this market this week. Clear triangle and market is in total balance around 2660. Wait for the breakout or play the range. My best guess would be that we both see 2600 and 2700 in the next 3 weeks.
comment : Quick and dirty again. Bulls had the perfect setup for 2800+ but blew it. Big bois selling the rips and market formed another triangle. I doubt it will go anywhere in the next 3 weeks. Likely yearly close around 2700. Play the range or don’t trade this at all.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2750
bull case: Bulls blew it. The setup from last weeks Friday was perfect and Mo-We we had amazing follow through. Thursday was a huge bear surprise and bulls just gave up on the rally. They got stuffed big time now two times over the past 5 weeks, which makes me believe that there are probably not many more bulls who want to try a third time. Sideways is the most likely and reasonable thing to expect here.
Invalidation is below 2630.
bear case: Strong bears selling the rips but I don’t expect them to really try and push this below 2600 again. 2630 was huge support the past weeks and even if they print below, they would still have to break through the big bull trend line from August.
Invalidation is above 2763.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral inside given range.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2659 and now we are at 2675. Market went much higher than expected but nowhere on the week, so outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-07 : No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2700.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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End of the 1 year Gold Run ?Are we looking at the end of the 1 year gold run that started in October 2023 at around 1600 all the way to 2800.
Are are seeing the top of the structure - and RSI weaknesses. It is my strong belief that Gold already saw its peak on the week of October 28th 2024. It has ample room to correct. A 32.5 correction should take it to the 2300 levels. A 50% move correction, which is an indication of a deeper correction should take it to 2200 levels.
Long Term Trade Idea Gold MIGoldMI 03 Jan, 2025 is at ₹ 77338/- at the time of writing this post. Buy any range between ₹ 77300/- to ₹ 76500/- Target ₹ 80000/-. Buyer's are buying and it will move to ₹ 80000/- first. Don't panic if some reverse happens to ₹ 75,500/-.
