Gold soybean oil Monday Friday I posted that the goal was likely to go lower because the market Gap lower and even though the market went higher from its low it couldn't close the gap and that tells me that the markets likely to go to new lows even though it might temporarily shows some buying Behavior. that's what it did and it went even a few $1000 lower since the close of Friday and it still might go lower since there's no evidence of buyers even though the market is at a support resistance line. I think the unrealized drawdown from the high is 20,000 or so dollars and that does not make this Market bearish and if it goes lower as I suspect it will go lower.the market is Trading with significant volatility and expansion and that means the market is going to have bigger moves when it moves higher and bigger moves when it moves lower compared to markets that have very little volatility and very small range. I did not address this in the video because the video was on the laborious side.... sorry about that. it satis support resistance line, it has not closed an important Gap lower.... so it could go higher or lower but I think it's probably going to go lower. and a good portion of that analysis is that gold has been so bullish for a significant. Of time..... I think the sellers are ultimately going to push this a little bit lower and this can be very profitable for the smart money because the market is going to take out some of the late buyers who like to trade all-time highs which is a very difficult way to make money because this pattern suggests that a lot of people who were break out buyers are in trouble with their long trades because they got in to late. now if you have a lot of money and you think the markets going to find buyers and make new highs... maybe you can hold out and maintain your long position but if you got into this Market on the Breakout move higher and you're down $25,000 per contract because you were just too late.... it just think how you're going to feel if it goes down another $25,000 before it starts turning and going higher
GOLDM2! trade ideas
Gold in weekly chartHello guys
This is my last analysis.
I hope all of you have found your way in this tricky market and for now I just want to show you how XAU will fluctuate in the next weeks. I am not 100 percent sure if wave (iv) has started or not but if it has started then all swing traders should be more careful about this corrective pattern(wave 4th). According to fundamental news and war and peace rumours around the world, a 4 wave patter makes sense.
Be safe and Happy my friends
GOLD MCX - 1D TIMEFRAME - ANALYSIS
Pure Price Action-Based Trading Plan
Buy Position:
Enter a buy position if the price breaks and closes above ₹78,700.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹79,500
Target 2: ₹80,500
Target 3: ₹82,000
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below ₹77,000 to limit downside risk.
Sell Position:
Enter a sell position if the price breaks and closes below ₹76,300.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹75,500
Target 2: ₹74,500
Target 3: ₹73,000
Stop Loss: Set the stop loss above ₹77,000 for this trade.
Given the overall bullish trend, it would be safer to lean towards a buy on breakouts rather than anticipating a reversal. However, a break below support could open the door for short-term selling opportunities. This approach relies purely on observing price behavior at key levels rather than indicator-based signals.
Bullish Gold Trade IdeaGold is showing signs of bullish momentum following the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, which has softened the U.S. dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. On the intraday charts, gold is consolidating near key support levels, setting up for a potential breakout.
Gold AnalysisThis analysis is based on the 1h timeframe. We have identified a discounted area of Demand and a premium area of Supply. We plan to wait for either a pullback to Demand, which is the base of the bullish swing pullback, or a rally seeking HTF Supply. Day trades will be placed on the 5m timeframe targeting these zones.
Gold BounceAs gold falls into these lower zones here, I am looking for confirmation to flip long within these zones of support
Gold bearish! 2570 is the next most probable targetGold has finally given in to the pressure of a strong dollar. I expect lower prices until we get to the $2570 price point. Good luck my friends!
GOLD THE S&P 11.8.24 I that some of these markets are overbought and that there should be some corrections lower. up the gold market corrected about $10,000 and then it reversed about $7000.... but it looks like it might go lower to the lower range box which I explained in the video . I thought I needed to put in realistic stops because you need to know what they are. if I tell you gold is a great trade because I think $2000 stop is a small stop... you and I may not agree on what a small stop is. but if I can risk $2000 to make $9000 that is a risk of willing to take. you still have to know what a stop looks like not just the range and you do that through looking at the chart a daily or a four-hour chart. in addition, there are subtle changes in the market that can give you a clue that you can stay in longer or that you should get out sooner and so you look for these behaviors.
Press Release - New Wyckoff VSA System for TradingView LaunchedIn this short video, Author and Trader, Gavin Holmes, announces the official launch of the new TradeToWin Pro \v1 software for Tradingview explaining one of the new set ups, called Upthrust with No Demand confirmed after Professional Selling in the background.
In the book, "Trades About To Happen" by the late David Weis, the description of a change in market behaviour is discussed, and our new pro version looks for exactly that at the live bar as it unfolds using multiple time frames.
Any questions email LAURA@TRADEGUIDER.COM or TRADEGUIDER@OUTLOOK.COM
Coffee soybeans oil gold11.13.24 the gold has moved down $20,000 from its high and will probably find buyers tomorrow. here there are no guarantees but it's coming to a Target area on the ABCD pattern and it doesn't have any 2 bar reversals to go higher so far today and so I'm guessing that the market will find a toolbar reversal after the end of today's market move you might even find the reversal later tonight after the market closes for a bit and then opens up later today.
Understanding Gold Panic Selling Reactions BetterThis video is designed to help you better understand how Gold works as a hedge instrument and how to attempt to measure Panic Selling phases in Precious Metals.
Metals offer an incredible opportunity when Panic Selling hits. But it can also present some very real risks because of price volatility.
Panic selling in the markets is usually an event-driven sell-off in almost all markets (including metals).
This type of selling is usually related to traders pulling assets (CASH) away from all market sectors because of some crisis or geopolitical event. It is a way for traders to react to the fear of the event while sometimes ignoring how metals will react to the future revaluation event.
Yet, who wants to hold Gold when it may fall 8.5% to 15% throughout this panic selling process?
If you learn how to spot the base/bottom efficiently (using my Excess Phase Peak patterns), you'll be able to pinpoint some incredible opportunities in metals.
I hope this video helps you to understand exactly how these Panic Selling events unfold - and lear to spot/trade them more efficiently.
The reality of the current market environment is that the Trump win is the event (call it a crisis or not - I don't care). This event is causing markets to revalue current asset classes (notice the strength of the US Dollar since Election Day).
I believe this revaluation event is nearly over and prices will begin to adjust into what I'm calling my "Anomaly Event" - where price levels settle back into a reversion (normal) type of contraction event before moving into a late-stage Santa Rally.
If I'm right, we'll see a base/bottom in metals happen after November 15-19, 2024.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
The Importance of Financial Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Financial Discipline in Trading: A Pathway to Lasting Success
Achieving consistent success hinges on one fundamental principle: financial discipline. This concept encompasses adherence to a well-structured trading strategy, effective risk management, and emotional control. Distinguishing successful traders from those who struggle, financial discipline empowers individuals to make informed decisions while navigating the often chaotic world of financial markets.
Understanding Financial Discipline
Financial discipline is about maintaining a methodical approach to trading. It requires traders to exercise patience in waiting for favorable market conditions, the courage to cut losses promptly, and the self-restraint to avoid impulsive risks. By establishing clear trading rules and sticking to them, traders can minimize errors, conserve capital, and foster long-term profitability. In contrast, a lack of discipline can lead to devastating consequences, derailing even the most promising strategies and exposing traders to significant financial setbacks.
Also Read:
The Critical Role of Emotional Control
Emotions can be one of the biggest hurdles in trading. Decisions driven by fear, greed, or overconfidence often lead to regrettable outcomes. For instance, fear may result in prematurely exiting a position, causing traders to miss out on potential gains when they could have held on longer. Conversely, the lure of quick profits might tempt traders to overtrade or take on excessive risk.
Disciplined traders minimize the impact of emotions by adhering to a comprehensive pre-planned strategy that emphasizes consistency. This approach includes specific criteria for trade entries and exits, pre-defined risk thresholds, and clear guidelines for position sizing. By operating within these parameters, traders can cope with the inevitable volatility of the market without succumbing to emotional reactions.
Moreover, having financial discipline allows traders to maintain composure during turbulent market periods, a time when many make ill-advised choices. The essence of financial discipline lies in its ability to keep traders focused on their long-term objectives, adapt strategies when needed, and ultimately achieve sustained profitability over time.
Also Read:
Setting Achievable Goals
Successful trading begins with the establishment of realistic, achievable goals. Traders should clarify their objectives—in both the short and long term—to facilitate strategic decision-making. Short-term goals, such as monthly profit targets, should remain specific yet attainable, fostering motivation and providing benchmarks for progress. For example, rather than aiming for excessively high returns, a trader might target a modest monthly gain, reducing the urge to engage in risky behavior.
However, flexibility is essential. Financial markets are dynamic, and goals may need adjustment in response to changing conditions. What may seem feasible during a bull market could become unrealistic in a downturn. Long-term goals, such as building wealth over several years, can help traders keep sight of their overarching aims without getting sidetracked by temporary setbacks.
By setting realistic expectations, traders can avoid the pitfalls of ambition that often lead to burnout or reckless decisions. These well-defined goals serve not only as performance indicators but also as tools to cultivate patience and resilience in the trading journey.
Risk Management: The Heart of Discipline
Effective risk management is paramount for survival in trading, and disciplined traders recognize that controlling risk is essential for long-term sustainability. Every trade carries a degree of uncertainty, and without a robust risk management strategy, even minor losses can escalate, jeopardizing a trader's financial health.
One fundamental risk management technique is the implementation of stop-loss orders. A stop-loss automatically closes a trade once it reaches a predetermined loss threshold, helping traders avoid the pitfall of holding onto losing positions in hopes of recovery. By defining acceptable limits, traders can mitigate risks and safeguard their accounts.
Position sizing is another critical component of a prudent risk management strategy. Traders should only risk a small percentage of their total capital on any single trade, ensuring that a series of losses will not have a devastating impact on their overall account balance. This approach encourages traders to diversify their risks rather than overexposing themselves to any one market or trade.
Additionally, understanding and applying a favorable risk-reward ratio is central to disciplined trading. Aiming for trades where the potential reward significantly surpasses the risk taken helps ensure that traders remain profitable in the long run. For example, a risk-reward ratio of 3:1 means risking $100 to potentially earn $300. By consistently identifying trades with such favorable ratios, traders can weather inevitable losses while maintaining a path to profitability.
Also Read:
Mastering Emotional Control
The psychological aspects of trading cannot be overlooked. Emotions such as fear and greed can markedly hinder progress. Fear may lead to hasty exits from positions, while greed could incite traders to exceed their risk limits in pursuit of greater profits. Both scenarios jeopardize a structured trading plan and can have dire financial consequences.
Long-term success in trading requires emotional control, allowing traders to base decisions on careful analysis rather than spontaneous reactions to the market. Fostering a disciplined routine is key. This starts with a thorough trading plan that outlines clear entry and exit strategies, risk management protocols, and position sizes. Consistently revisiting and adhering to this plan will help mitigate impulsive decision-making influenced by market mood swings or personal stressors.
Embracing losses as an inherent part of trading is also vital. Even the most adept traders experience losing trades, and it's crucial to avoid allowing recent losses to cloud future judgment. Focusing on the broader strategy and long-term performance instead of fixating on individual trades enhances a trader’s capacity to remain rational and composed.
Also Read:
and...
Conclusion: The Path to Consistency and Success
Financial discipline is not merely a concept; it's the bedrock of effective trading. By prioritizing structured strategies, managing risk diligently, and controlling emotions, traders can position themselves for sustained success in the financial markets. The journey to mastery involves setting realistic goals, crafting sound risk management plans, and cultivating emotional resilience. Ultimately, by embracing these principles, traders can improve their decision-making processes and enhance their chances for consistent, profitable outcomes in the exciting yet challenging world of trading.
Gold Update: Post-Election WeaknessThe price of gold typically drops after U.S. elections, and this time is no different.
This weakness coincides with the expected wave count on the chart, as Wave 4 correction was anticipated. (see related)
Wave 3 is extended, and so is sub-Wave 5 within it, which is a common pattern for commodities.
Wave 4 has now begun, and there are two ways to measure its potential target:
1. Wave 4 typically retraces Wave 3 by around 38.2%.
2. The trend channel formed through the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 3, and the valley of Wave 2, suggests a potential bottom for Wave 4.
This chart shows an amazing alignment of these two factors: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $2,428, and the bottom of the channel is around $2,450. These levels provide a strong double support for gold prices.
The final upward impulse should at least retest the all-time high of $2,802 (the peak of Wave 3).
The Cup & Handle pattern (see related ideas) has a target of $3,000.
GOLD Swing SpeculationTechnical Analysis Overview:
1.Current Trend Context:
• The breakdown from the ascending channel signals a shift in market sentiment from bullish to potentially bearish. This type of pattern breakdown can often lead to a corrective phase or a trend reversal.
•The price has shown a bearish rejection, indicating sellers’ control at higher levels. This is confirmed by the volume spike during the recent decline.
2.Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Resistance Zone: The area around 76,000 to 76,746 serves as a key resistance zone after the breakdown. A price recovery to this zone may provide a swing short opportunity.
• Support Levels: Immediate support is near 74,898 and further down near 68,237. Price behavior near these levels should be monitored for potential bounce trades.
3.Indicators:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be diverging from the price, indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential for further downside. It is important to look out for RSI moving into oversold territory, which could signal a reversal or consolidation.
• Moving Averages: If the price is trading below key moving averages (like the 20-day and 50-day), it suggests that the short-term and medium-term trends are bearish.
4.Volume Analysis:
• The recent surge in volume during the breakdown suggests strong selling pressure, which is a bearish sign. Volume should be monitored during any pullback to assess the strength of potential recoveries.
Swing Trading Strategy:
1.Bearish Swing Trade Setup:
• Entry Point: Consider entering short on a bounce back towards the resistance zone around 76,000–76,746, especially if there is a bearish candlestick formation (like a bearish engulfing pattern or pin bar) on lower timeframes.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the recent highs or key resistance levels, e.g., above 76,746, to limit downside risk.
• Target Levels: Aim for targets near the support levels, with a first target around 74,000 and a second target near 68,237 if the downward momentum continues.
2.Bullish Reversal Trade Setup:
• Entry Point: If price approaches key support levels (e.g., 74,898) and shows signs of reversal (such as a bullish engulfing candle, hammer, or divergence in RSI), consider a swing long trade.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the recent swing low, or slightly below the identified support level to manage risk.
• Target Levels: Aim for a target near the resistance zones around 76,000–76,746. Additional targets can be adjusted based on the strength of the reversal.
3. Risk Management:
• Always maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., at least 1:2).
• Utilize trailing stops if the trade moves favorably to lock in profits.
Additional Considerations:
• Macro Factors: Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. Consider these factors alongside technical analysis.
• Timeframe Alignment: Since this is a swing trade, focus on daily and 4-hour charts for entries and exits.
• Market Sentiment: Watch for shifts in broader market sentiment that may affect gold’s safe-haven status.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to conduct your own research, assess your financial situation, risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. The information provided here is based on technical chart patterns and market trends and is subject to change due to market conditions or unforeseen events.
Why Gold Could See a 15% Correction Before the Next RallyGold, sitting at around $2,700, boasts an impressive 32.1% YTD performance. However, we're anticipating a significant 10-15% correction from current levels.
This past week's market dynamics are telling: the Russell 2000 surged 8.57%, $500B flowed into crypto markets signaling renewed risk appetite, while gold recorded its steepest weekly drop (-1.98%) since May 2024.
While these factors shape our near-term bearish outlook, persistent economic risks reinforce our long-term bullish stance on gold for the next couple of years.
Q4 OUTLOOK FOR GOLDI believe we have capped the high for the year for Gold and are now trading the closing wick back into the overall range for 2024. If you want more insights to this idea please click the link to the video below. Thanks.
GOLD MCXGold Future near demand zone
Target can be 76000-76200
This chart is only for educational purpose
MGC Short 11/10/2024MGC is in a sideways + down momentum in daily chart as price closed below 21EMA. It is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Price is testing 4hr 21EMA and 200EMA. Placed a short in SZ above 4hr 21EMA (purple horizontal line) that broke high volume DZ (green box). Taking half risk because the zone is low volume. Risk= $124. Target= 1:1 and daily DZ (blue box).
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725.
Quote from last week:
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo.
current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800.
key levels: 2600 - 2800
bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 2730.
outlook last week:
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend line
GOLD OUTLOOK for the rest of Q4 2024 and Weekly Outlook In this outlook I share my elite edge that I've never shared before with anyone, in hopes that it will help you with obtaining the biggest moves in your trading career. In my opinion, I believe that we have capped the high for the Gold trading year, and now we are trading the closing wick back into the overall range. In this broadcast I share projections and insights that should help you get on side with the market so that you can participate in the massive move on the near horizon. Thanks and enjoy.
The #1 Reason Why Buying Gold Is Hard Right NowBuying gold is a bit of a challenge for me
because I am so used to buying bitcoin
But what i have noticed is that
When bitcoin goes up gold goes down
and vice versa..
so my idea of buying gold
Is to buy it at the same time as bitcoin
but account for the drawdown of about 5%
its not pretty but it will work in the long
run
Again am not a fun of trading gold COMEX:GC1!
With margin
but its a good one to consider right
now that the market is quiet from good entries
and we are standing on the sidelines
during this crazy market mania.
Even though am thinking
You can still buy Bitcoin
but look at the stochastic RSI below
the chart you can see the moving
averages crossing.
The only challenge with trading
Gold and silver is the volatility is
crazy so if you dont mind the ride
Then you can take it
just remember to use the
stochastic rsi as your
guide to know whether the price is
cheap or not.
Personally, i have re-entered the
Bitcoin CME:BTC1! price action,
It may crash next week
But at least your Bitcoin Buy
should sustain you with
some profit.
So for this one Buy Gold, silver and
Bitcoin
according to this chart Buy Gold
using the daily stochastic rsi chart after
the Bitcoin buy signal
Also, this price action follows
the rocket booster strategy
To learn more about this strategy
check out
the references below
Remember to rocket boost this
content to learn more
Disclaimer: Trading is risky
please learn risk management and profit-taking
strategies. Because you will
Lose money whether you like it
or not.
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo.
comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 2600 - 2700
bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard.
Invalidation is below 2570.
bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold.
Invalidation is above 2630.
short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
Gold's Bull MarketThis is what's happening.
A series of measured moves
Expecting a pause here should be expected
#gold
