MGC Long 11/6/2024MGC is in a downtrend. Price is testing daily DZ (blue box). Placed a long position in HV DZ. Taking half risk because it is a countertrend trade. Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and HV SZ.
GOLDM1! trade ideas
GoldAs of November 7, 2024, gold prices have experienced significant volatility, influenced by various global economic and geopolitical factors.
Current Price Levels:
Gold is trading around $2,734.79 per ounce, slightly below its recent peak of $2,790.15 reached on October 31, 2024. (Reuters)
Technical Analysis:
• Support Levels: Immediate support is observed at $2,608.30, with stronger support around $2,468.20. (MarketScreener)
• Resistance Levels: Key resistance is near the recent high of $2,790.15. (Reuters)
• Moving Averages: Gold is trading above its 13, 48, and 200-day EMAs, indicating a sustained bullish trend. (Economies)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 58.93, suggesting mild bullish momentum without being overbought. (Moneycontrol)
Fundamental Factors:
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. (Reuters)
• U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to support higher gold prices. (Reuters)
• Central Bank Demand: Robust purchases by central banks have bolstered gold demand. (JPMorgan)
Outlook:
Analysts predict that gold prices could rise to $2,600 or $2,700 by the end of the year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. (Reuters)
Conclusion:
Gold’s technical indicators and fundamental factors suggest a continued bullish trend. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and central bank policies, as these will significantly influence gold’s trajectory in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Scenario GOLD levels update This view of gold actually somehow confirms that I should be on the good side of the market, outside of the original analysis, we could see a false breakout from which the price consolidated around the zone marked by me, which may show us a head-and-shoulders formation, which may be followed by a correction against this formation
Quick Short Scalp TradeI'm targeting a more risky liquidity however I moved TP a bit lower. If trendline hits and keeps falling great if not and it hits that SSL "red line" then reacts to shoot up i will close trade in some profit. Lets see. I have already entered before posting this.
Also this was done on 1 min TF but have to post this as 15min lol
Gold Shines Amid Political and Geopolitical UncertaintiesGold trades in positive territory on Monday, supported by risks surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These uncertainties enhance gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset, attracting investors looking to shield their portfolios. In the short term, these factors are likely to keep gold’s price elevated.
However, the upside for gold is capped by renewed demand for the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby limiting its potential for significant gains.
Investors are closely monitoring the presidential election on Tuesday, as well as the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision on Thursday. Market expectations lean toward a moderate 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed, reflecting caution amid electoral uncertainties. This approach could further temper gold’s gains if the dollar remains strong.
In summary, while political and geopolitical risks lend support to gold, its upside is constrained by a strong dollar and rising yields, making investors cautious about heavy positioning ahead of key events this week.
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Neutral. Bears got a minor pullback from the ath but only printed 1 decent bear bar before disappointment again. 2720 is probably next big support and I see the market rather moving sideways and retesting the highs before a bigger move down and a break of the bull trend line.
Quote from last week:
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
current market cycle: bull trend but it’s getting weaker and we could already be in a trading range 2700-2800.
key levels: 2700 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want this to stay above the previous support 2720 and move sideways between 2720 and 2800. It would show great strength if they would not let the market test down to the bull trend line and move sideways instead. If they do this for a couple more days, bears will give up and try again around 2800. For now I don’t see bulls breaking 2800 again, since the rally was very climactic over the past months.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears finally printed some decent bear bars on the 4h chart and they want a second leg down to test the bull trend line around 2700. There we can expect some sideways movement and a battle for the big round number. Until it is clearly broken, I favor the bulls to continue sideways to up again and that 2700 is support.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2754 and now we are at 2749. Perfect outlook, 2801 was hit on Wednesday and Thursday. Hope you made some.
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2700 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential two legged correction down to 2700
Gold's potential to push higher todayGold's potential to push higher today can be attributed to a few converging factors despite recent volatility. The metal saw significant downside pressure yesterday, likely due to profit-taking after recent highs, yet it remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Notably, tensions in the Middle East continue to attract investors to gold as a hedge, providing support amid concerns of an escalation in conflict
KITCO
KITCO
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Another factor involves broader financial market conditions. The dollar remains strong, which often puts pressure on gold, but the likelihood of more dovish moves from the Federal Reserve in the coming months is supporting the metal’s upward trajectory. Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect continued central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, alongside possible Fed rate cuts, which could sustain demand for gold as a hedge against fiat currency volatility
GOLDMAN SACHS
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Given these dynamics, today’s upward movement in gold could be seen as a response to both immediate geopolitical fears and a continued expectation of supportive monetary policy, potentially leading gold toward further gains in the near term.
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position
Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore.
To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade:
1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert
Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching.
2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long
While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator.
3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why?
Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher?
4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High?
Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note.
5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries
Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits.
6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution
Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check.
7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging
There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended.
8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic
Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing.
The Bottom Line
Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution.
If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend.
And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people:
1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and
2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs.
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
First trade toodayFed meeting: If the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes, it could weaken the dollar, which supports gold.
Geopolitical uncertainty: Rising global tensions often push investors toward gold as a safe haven.
Technical level: prices break and hold above the $2,800 level, it would signal a major bullish move
Why To Buy Gold In 3 StepsLearning how to buy gold was a big challenge
because i didn't know the right time to actually buy it
It looks simple at first especially when you
Listen to some financial market gurus that just
say “Buy Gold, dont worry about the price, because its
a huge against inflation.”
But what if you want to make moeny from the
price action?
You may be thinking,
“Its not possible to make money from the price action”
But the truth is its very much possible to make
a trae from the gold price action.
Here is what i learned:
1. Gold is a protection against inflation
2. Gold performs better than the stock market
3. Gold keeps your buying power
Now if you are just beginning at buying Gold
then you may buy at the top, which is not a cool
place to start from but if you want to learn how to buy
Price the right way then keep reading to understand the strategy i use.
• Gold Buying Strategy
The strategy to buying gold is really not that hard.
Because remember you want to buy it
in order to proit from the price action right?
So maybe you are thinking,
“If only i could make so much money
from the Gold price action and not worry about
storage fees, and delivery fees from physical gold”
Thats even the more reason why you have to learn how to buy
the gold price action right now.
Thats why i use the Rocket booster strategy
The rocket booster strategy is a trend following indicator
this strategy is very simple and yet very powerful
at the same time.
What you need to do is try to understand
the moving averages of the last 50 days of the
price of the asset you are looking at,
Then you need to try to understand the moving price average
of the last 200 days.Then after that you need to
understand the gap up in the price action.
• How The Gap Up In Price Action Happens
The gap up in price action is a very important
step to really think about especailly when you
are looking at the gold price.
You may be thinking
“What if the 50 Moving Average crosses above the
200 Moving average? Isnt that part of the
rocket booster strategy?”
Listen this past week i saw a stock price
that followed the rocket booster strategy
and it was trending on social media heavy.
When i checked on it today i realised that
the price of this particular stock had crashed!
“What the hell happend?”
I thought to myself. This is not crowd pyschology.
Just because a stock is trending on social media
does not give you the green light to trade it.
Also you have to enter the price action
before the gap.Now if you want ro enter after the
Gap then thats up to you,But if you want to follow
the exact strategy its has to be before the gap.
• Why Buying Before The Gap Up Or Rally Up Is Important
Listen in trading they are a bunch of theories
some say buy before the rally some say before
during the price rally.
While otehr will a fiancial expert to wait for
a hot tip.Sadly even after that hot tip.
You will need the confidence of a bull to
Pull the trigger.Trading is a mental game.
You re playing this game with a bunch people
that sadly dont even make the market move at all
Now are there some trading pocket opportunities
that involve pumps and dumps..yes they are.
But remember right now we are looking
at the price of gold.
You may be thinking,
“Gold price action is very boring...why are
we addressing this?”
Because the market is very quiet right now
but you ttrading journey never stops you have to learn more
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer:
Trading is risky you will lose money wether you like it or not
please risk managment and profit taking strategies.
Initiated a short position in GOLD, successfully reached target Gold may show bullish momentum at today’s open due to several key factors:
Safe-Haven Demand: Rising inflation or economic instability often drives investors toward gold, bolstering its appeal.
Weaker Dollar: A softer dollar makes gold more attractive to international buyers, supporting price gains.
Interest Rate Outlook: Speculation around potential rate cuts or pauses makes holding gold more favorable, reducing its opportunity cost.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Tensions or instability in global markets can increase demand for gold as a safe asset.
Technical Factors: A recent break above resistance or strong support levels can trigger technical buying, reinforcing an uptrend.
