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GOLDM1! trade ideas

Gold in Strong Uptrend, but Is a Correction Looming?Gold remains well-positioned in a strong bullish trend, although prices have struggled to break above the rising trendline of the ascending channel. Considering that this move could represent the fifth wave of a larger-degree Elliott Wave structure, I’m on high alert for a potential correction. A pullback could bring prices back toward the $2,600 area. However, as of now, there are no clear signs of weakness, and the trend remains decisively bullish. 📈🔥
COMEX:GC1!
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
Shorting Gold!Gold has been on a TEAR through 2025. Overextended in ATH territory and more expensive than ever before in history. Logically, we should expect a return to historically normal (still expensive) prices. Daily chart is showing 3/3 sell signals 1. Price below 9 period MA 2. RSI bearish fanning beautifully from overbought levels 3. Average Daily Range expanding with volatility I'm aggressively watching for shorts on Gold, Silver, and Copper in the weeks ahead. I've outlined 3 possible entries IF we're lucky enough to see some kind of relief from last weeks selloff. Should price proceed to fall, preparing smaller time frame short trades. I strongly believe we will see 2800. Strategy is invalidated if price breaches ATH's
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GrayTrader01
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 16th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The February 24 pivot forecast turned gold downward, marking the top of the current base cycle and forming a double top with the February 11 pivot forecast. By Friday’s close, gold hit the first support at 2850 (see chart). We are in the final stage of the base cycle, but the pattern does not yet resemble a cycle completion. 👉 The price movement from the January 29 extreme forecast to the February 11 or February 24 extreme highs provided over $15K per contract on GC futures. Those who entered, congratulations on an excellent trade. A short position was opened at the February 24 pivot forecast. 👉 Strong support is at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2850-2830 on the current futures contract). This level needs to be broken. The next support is the broken double top at the previous retrograde Mercury level from November 25 (2780 on the current futures contract). ⚠️ The next extreme forecast is March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I wrote about in early December. I am not sure if this extreme forecast will start a new cycle. A strong extreme forecast within the timing of the base cycle’s completion falls on the start of retrograde Mercury on March 17 (week 18 of the cycle).
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest
Equity Markets Lagging the Precious Metals Equity indices slipped today as they are looking to retest all time high levels for the ES and the NQ. Traders saw economic data released today including a higher than expected initial jobless claims number along with a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing number. As the equity markets slipped, the precious metals complex saw gains today with Gold, Silver, and Copper all in positive territory. As the week wraps up, traders can look ahead to the existing home sales number along with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI tomorrow to add some volatility to the market. The CME Fed Watch Tool is currently indicating that rates will again be unchanged for the March meeting, and then a 43.6% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the June meeting. These expectations can change as the year progresses based on different employment and inflation data and will help give a better indication of the strength of the equity and precious metal markets. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GCJ2025
by CME_Group
Tracking Crisis with Stocks/Gold RatioGold Surges with Three Major Crises Over the past 25 years, we have witnessed three significant financial crises: the Dot-Com Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the recent 9% inflation crisis. In each of these events, a distinct pattern emerged—gold surged before the crisis reached its full intensity. Historically, gold's price has experienced notable gains before economic downturns: • Dot-Com Bubble: +34% surge • 2008 Financial Crisis: +89% surge • Inflation Crisis (2022): +24% surge Currently, gold has surged 83% from its trough in November 2022. Given this historical correlation, could we be on the verge of another financial crisis? Why Are Central Banks Stockpiling Gold? This current gold rally bears similarities to past surges but also has a crucial distinction. While demand for gold remains strong, this time around, central banks are leading the charge in purchasing gold at an unprecedented rate since 2022. Gold serves a dual function: 1. Inflation Hedge – A safeguard against inflation. 2. Currency Hedge – Protection against currency devaluation. Central banks' aggressive gold acquisitions suggest expectations of prolonged inflation and currency instability. As fiat currencies weaken, inflationary pressures mount, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven asset. Fundamental Indicators Paint a Cautionary Picture A deeper dive into key economic indicators suggests a challenging outlook. Here are some red flags: • Treasury Bonds in a Downtrend – Indicating a loss of confidence in long-term debt securities. • Interest Rates Remain High – Despite inflation cooling from 9% to 3%, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than pre-2022 levels. Elevated interest rates place pressure on businesses and, eventually, stock prices. • Inflation Remains Stubborn – The lowest recorded inflation since the peak was 2.4%, but it has now ticked back up to 3%. With ongoing tariff escalations, inflation could reignite. These fundamental factors indicate that financial markets remain vulnerable to shocks, reinforcing the case for cautious positioning. The Technical Outlook: A Bullish Trend Still Holds Despite fundamental concerns, technical analysis suggests that the current AI-driven market rally, which began after the introduction of ChatGPT, remains intact. A strong uptrend line connecting all major troughs continues to act as a support level. Timing the Bear with the Crisis The bond market is already signaling distress. If equity markets break below this well-established uptrend line, my strategy will shift dramatically. Instead of looking for buying opportunities on dips, I will pivot to selling on strengths, anticipating a market downturn. My Trading Strategy: Still Buying on Dips I have provided a daily chart with updated trendlines, marking key support and resistance levels. My trading approach will be guided by these levels to manage risk effectively. Preferred Instruments: Outright futures and call options. Market Outlook: Cautiously bullish. While economic conditions warrant vigilance, technical indicators suggest that the bullish trend remains intact—until proven otherwise. Happy trading! Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
New update for Gold Futures.**Gold Futures: A Comprehensive Update** Hey everyone! It's been a while since my last post, and there's been a lot happening in the gold market. Let's take a closer look at the current state of gold futures and what's driving the market right now. **Price Trends** Gold prices have been trading around **$2,900** per ounce, struggling to break above this level. The price has been relatively stable, but there's a lot of speculation about where it might head next. **Market Drivers** Several factors are influencing gold prices at the moment: **US-Russia Talks** The ongoing discussions between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine are causing some uncertainty. Any significant developments could impact gold prices as investors look for safe-haven assets. **Federal Reserve Policies** Comments from Fed officials about inflation and interest rates are also affecting the market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that rising asset prices may have hampered progress on inflation. This kind of news can make investors nervous and drive them towards gold. **US Dollar Strength** The US Dollar has been rebounding, which typically puts downward pressure on gold prices. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can dampen demand. **Technical Analysis** The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around **68**, suggesting a lack of fresh impetus. If sellers enter the market, the price could test the February low of **$2,864**. This level is crucial as a break below it could lead to further downside. **Upcoming Events** There are a few key events to keep an eye on: **Fed Minutes** The release of the Fed’s January meeting minutes could provide insights into future policy directions. This will be closely watched by market participants. **US Economic Data** Reports like Non-Farm Payroll and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be key indicators to watch. These reports can give us a better understanding of the US economy and influence Fed policy decisions. **Claims About Trump and Musk Auditing Fort Knox Gold Reserves** Donald Trump and Elon Musk have indeed raised concerns about the gold reserves at Fort Knox. Trump has publicly stated that he wants to ensure the gold is still there, and Musk has echoed these sentiments on social media. However, it's important to note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that the gold reserves are audited annually and that all the gold is present and accounted for. **Gold Bar with Silver Allegations** There have been rumors circulating online about a gold bar with silver found at Fort Knox, but there is no verified evidence to support this claim. The U.S. Mint and other official sources have not reported any such discovery. It's likely that this is just another conspiracy theory without any factual basis. **Conclusion** While it's always good to question and seek transparency, the claims about Trump and Musk auditing Fort Knox and finding a gold bar with silver seem to lack credible evidence. The official stance is that the gold reserves are well-documented and secure.
COMEX:GC1!
by OakleyJM