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GOLDM1! trade ideas

Gold Building A Top? Potential Downside Price ObjectivesConclusion: In early 2024 gold reached the price objective derived from the breakout of the large triangle that had evolved beginning in early 2022. Upon reaching the area of the objective, a classic buying climax halted the trend. The subsequent trading range has been characterized by distribution. In the event of a breakout lower, the amount of distribution (cause) derived from the point and figure count suggests that a downside objective of 10-12% lower is reasonable. In this piece we make a technical assessment of the daily and weekly charts, provide evidence suggesting that the range is likely distribution (Wyckoff) In November 2023 gold broke above lateral resistance that had developed along the 2079-2085 area. • The lateral resistance and the rising support generated by the trendline (A) defined a large triangle. Importantly the original breakout from the 2079- 2085 triangle generated a price objective of 2540. • That objective is derived: 2079 (initial point of the triangle ) - 1618 (bottom of the pattern) = 461 points. • 461 points added to the triangle top (2079 + 461) = 2540 objective. In my view, triangle price objectives are AREAS to monitor for resistance rather than discrete points. In March the market rallied to 2454. • The combination of overbought in the channels, and the 1.382% Fibonacci objective (a bit short of the 1.618% objective), and the area of the triangle objective, clearly defined an area of the chart where supply was likely to develop. Despite the backdrop of very bullish news and strongly bullish sentiment, a classic buying climax developed (BC). Over the next three weeks the market pulled back to 2285, then rallied in a secondary test (ST). Gold Daily: Without going into a detailed Wyckoff price/volume analysis I will make the case that it is likely that the range is one of distribution. Note the appearance of supply (inside the oval) just prior to the buying climax at 2449, the lower volume and angle of attack on the rally to 2454 (secondary test), and the expansion of volume and close near the low of the price spread (last arrow). Rallies inside the range are being aggressively sold as strong hands distribute to weak hands. Additionally, much of the price action has developed below the midpoint of the range. Trading ranges represent areas of the chart where large numbers of shares change hands, often moving from strong hands to weak hands. This is why there is a consistent relationship between the length of a trading range and the size of the subsequent move. This is particularly true in very liquid, heavily traded markets. Assuming the current range DOES NOT EXTEND and I am correct in my assessment of distribution, the point and figure count projects enough cause to suggest downside of 2010 - 2030. If the range extends, the count will lengthen and the price objective grows greater. With this view, I Should be able to fashion a trade well in excess of 3-1 (minimum) risk reward. I suspect that when a trade does set up, that risk reward will be in excess of 10-1 as a stop versus my entry is likely to be less than 1%. Generally speaking, there are only two outcomes to the range, either the buying climax is short term and the market will, after a period of re-accumulation, move higher or the buying climax will offer a significant top leading to a significant markdown once supply is completely distributed to weak hands. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
COMEX:GC1!
by CMT_Association
4
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COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 17th June 2024if Sustain above 2351.6 or 2352.3 then 2354.4 then 2356.5 or 2361.4 above this bullish then 2372.6 then 2379.6 then 2396.9 to then 2412 to 2413.7 or 2417.1 to 2417.9 above this more bullish if Sustain Below 2344.7 then 2339.7 to 2335.5 or 2333.5 below this bearish then 2326.5 to 2324.6 then 2319.6 to 2318 below this more bearish then 2297.1 to 2295.1 then 2290.9 to 2290.1 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 14th June 2024if Sustain above 2325 then 2340.5 to 2347.5 or 2352 to 2354.4 above this bullish then 2358.7 to 2361.4 then 2365.7 to 2368.2 or 2372.6 to 2376.9 above this more bullish then 2379.7 to 2383.9 then 2390.8 to 2397.9 if Sustain Below 2318 then 2311 then 2307 to 2304.1 below this bearish then 2290.7 to 2288.6 then 2281.6 then 2276.3 to 2274.6 or 2270.3 to 2267.7 below this more bearish then 2263.4 to 2260.1 then 2256.4 to 2252.1 then 2249.5 to 2245.2 Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
COMEX:GC1!
by PrashantTaralkar
Gold 70,100 possible !!we have seen on daily time frame price formed rising wedge pattern on friday 7jun we seen a bearish big candle confirming the breakdown of the pattern price then tried to take a bounce from recent orderblock but we can clear see that the bearish pressure is not letting the bullish orderblock go any further up causing the price to form a small triangle pattern which will eventually work as buildup for more down side and we can 70,100 level in coming days will further after price hits 70,100 level follow for more
MCX:GOLD1!Short
by Jimmy_Rebello
Options Blueprint Series: Swap Strategies for High VolatilityIntroduction CME Group Gold Futures have always been a cornerstone in the commodities market, offering investors and traders a way to hedge against economic uncertainties and inflation. With the current market environment exhibiting heightened volatility, traders are looking for strategies to capitalize on these fluctuations. One such strategy is the Straddle Swap, which is particularly effective in high volatility scenarios. By utilizing the Straddle Swap strategy on Gold Futures, traders can potentially benefit from price swings driven by news events, economic data releases, and other market-moving occurrences. Strategy Explanation The Straddle Swap strategy is designed to capitalize on high volatility by leveraging options with different expirations. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this strategy works: Components of the Straddle Swap: 1. Buy one call option (longer expiration) This long call option benefits from upward price movements in Gold Futures. 2. Sell one call option (shorter expiration) This short call option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long call option. As it has a shorter expiration, it benefits from faster time decay. 3. Buy one put option (longer expiration) This long put option benefits from downward price movements in Gold Futures. 4. Sell one put option (shorter expiration) This short put option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long put option. It also benefits from faster time decay due to its shorter expiration. Rationale for Different Expirations: Longer Expirations: The options with more days to expiration provide a longer timeframe to capture significant price movements, whether upward or downward. Shorter Expirations: The options with less days to expiration decay more quickly, providing premium income that reduces the overall cost of the strategy. This helps mitigate the effects of time decay on the longer-dated options. Market Analysis Using TradingView Charts: To effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, it’s crucial to analyze the current market conditions of Gold Futures using TradingView charts. This analysis will help identify optimal entry and exit points based on volatility and price trends. The current price action of Gold Futures along with key volatility indicators. Recent data shows that the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month Historical Volatilities have all been on the rise, confirming a high volatility scenario. Application to Gold Futures Let’s apply the Straddle Swap strategy to Gold Futures given the current market conditions. Identifying Optimal Entry Points: Call Options: Buy one call option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2370 @ 64.5. Sell one call option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of 2370 @ 53.4. Put Options: Buy one put option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2350 @ 63.4. Sell one put option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of $2350 @ 52.5. Target Prices: Based on the relevant UFO support and resistance levels, set target prices for potential profit scenarios: Upper side, target price: 2455. For put options, target price: 2260. Potential Profit and Loss Scenarios: Scenario 1: Significant Upward Movement If Gold Futures rise sharply above 2370 within 100 days, the long call option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short call option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses. Scenario 2: Significant Downward Movement If Gold Futures fall sharply below 2350 within 100 days, the long put option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short put option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses. Scenario 3: Minimal Movement If Gold Futures remain relatively stable, the premiums collected from the short options (71-day expiration) will offset some of the cost of the long options (100-day expiration), minimizing overall losses. Further options could be sold against the long 2350 call and long 2350 put once the shorter expiration options have expired. Specific Action Plan: 1. Initiate the Straddle Swap Strategy: Enter the positions as outlined above following your trading plan, ensuring to buy and sell the options at the desired strike prices and expirations. 2. Monitor Market Conditions: Continuously monitor Gold Futures prices and volatility indicators. Adjust or close the strategy if necessary based on significant market changes. 3. Manage Positions: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. If the market moves favorably, consider exiting the positions at the target prices to lock in profits. 4. Reevaluate Periodically: Periodically reevaluate the positions as the options approach their expiration dates. Make any necessary adjustments to the strategy based on updated market conditions and volatility. By following this type of trade plan, traders can effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, taking advantage of high volatility in Gold Futures while managing risk through careful monitoring and the use of stop-loss orders. Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial for success in options trading, particularly when employing strategies like the Straddle Swap. Here, we will discuss the importance of risk management, key techniques, and best practices to ensure that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital. Importance of Risk Management: Minimizing Losses: Trading inherently involves risk. Effective risk management helps minimize potential losses, ensuring that a single adverse move does not significantly impact the trader’s overall portfolio. Preserving Capital: By managing risk, traders can preserve their capital, allowing them to stay in the market longer and capitalize on future opportunities. Enhancing Profitability: Proper risk management allows traders to optimize their strategies, potentially increasing profitability by avoiding unnecessary losses. Key Risk Management Techniques: 1. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position if the market moves against it. For the Straddle Swap strategy, set stop-loss orders for the long call and put options to exit positions if prices reach predetermined levels where losses would exceed the desired trade risk set by the trader. 2. Hedging: Use hedging techniques to protect positions from adverse market movements. This can involve purchasing protective options or futures contracts. Hedging provides an additional layer of security, ensuring that losses in one position are offset by gains in another. 3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Ensure that all positions have defined risk parameters. Avoid strategies that can result in unlimited losses. The Straddle Swap strategy inherently has limited risk due to the offsetting nature of the long and short options. 4. Precision in Entries and Exits: Timing is crucial in options trading. Ensure precise entry and exit points to maximize potential gains and minimize losses. Use technical analysis key price levels such as UFO support and resistance prices, and volatility indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points. 5. Regular Monitoring and Adjustment: Continuously monitor market conditions and the performance of open positions. Be prepared to adjust the strategy based on changing market dynamics, such as shifts in volatility or unexpected news events. Additional Risk Management Practices: Diversification: Spread risk across multiple positions and asset classes to reduce the impact of any single trade. Other liquid options markets could be WTI Crude Oil Futures; Agricultural products such as Wheat Futures, Corn Futures, or Soybean Futures; Index Futures such as the E-mini S&P 500 Futures; and even Bond and Treasury Futures such as the 10-Year Note or the 30-Year Bond Futures. Position Sizing: Carefully determine the size of each position based on the trader’s overall portfolio and risk tolerance. Education and Research: Stay informed about market conditions, economic indicators, and trading strategies to make well-informed decisions. By incorporating these risk management techniques, traders can effectively navigate the complexities of options trading and protect their investments. Ensuring more precision with entries and exits, using stop-loss orders, and implementing hedging strategies are essential practices that contribute to long-term trading success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GCV2024Education
by traddictiv
10
Gold reacting to resistance line $2400 before Distribution phaseThe chart suggests a strong uptrend in gold prices with potential resistance around 2454.2 USD. Monitoring how the price behaves at this resistance will be crucial for future predictions. A break above could signal further bullish movement, while a reversal could indicate a pullback to lower support levels. Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the high resistance level of 2454.2 USD, it could indicate a continuation of the uptrend, potentially reaching higher levels within or above the channel. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break above the resistance and reverses, it may pull back to the nearest support level around 2174.6 USD or even lower to 2073.9 - 2011.7 USD.
COMEX:GC1!
by EQDailytrading
GC / Gold / XAUUSD 1hr narrative for 17-JunWe are in a range since the 10th of June. We never trade in the middle of the range. We can see that price is consolidating and preparing for expansion. I would look for a short at the top of the range after a bullish sweep (also referred to as manipulation) and then anticipate price to go lower. However, as this range has seen a lot of volume, the bears may not have much momentum before the bulls get in the driving seat. Note to self and every deliberate and disciplined trader. Don't long at the top of the range, even if ti feels tempting. Similarly, don't short at the bottom of the range if you don't want to become liquidity. Let price show its hand. The higher time market structure clearly tells us we are bullish. Be conservative, don't try to short when the overall structure remains agressively bullish. Honour your experience, if you don't know what to do, or feel confused, SIT ON YOUR HANDS. Doing nothing will make you money. It is very likelyt that price will attempt to breach the ATH. Have patience, wait for retracements before entering into bullish trades. FOMO = Losing money. Know your reptilian impulses, witness them, for it is only you, the beautiful human who is capable of looking at the workings of your own brain.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by DayTradingDragon
Crossover strategy for shortsThis is my goto setup for short or long. This just happens to have set up for gold short starting next week. 4 prerequisites: short moving average crosses below long moving average, price falls and then recovers to touch the slower moving average, price closes below the body of the previous candle, then hopefully prices pulls back again to allow one to get a better price for shorts. All prerequisites have been met, so I am looking for traction to the short side on gold for Monday at least, possibly persisting into midweek.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by Mikel618
GOLD 2-week ProjectionGold sitting at major support level inside a trading range on the daily chart but where will it go from here in the next few days? Price currently trading inside a downward channel/wedge. Will we get some momentum to push higher? The beginnings of a possible butterfly pattern starting to form indicating a bullish move up to the top of the trendline with a chance to fake out long and continue down to a key fib level before breaking out again or continuing its price action inside the wedge.
COMEX:GC1!
by supertokki52
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. gold comment: This does look a lot more like a trading range than a market who want’s to have it’s third leg down. 2300 continues to be big support and until that is clearly broken, it’s a buy at that price. For the pull-back to stay below 2360 is bearish. So market has arguments on both sides and that is why we can expect more sideways price action until that range is clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2360 bull case: The longer they can keep it above 2300, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for a breakout to either side become 50/50. Market is in balance here, so no good arguments for higher or lower prices. The current bear channel is reasonable and maybe the bulls are favored down here to trade it back to around 2330 tomorrow. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case either. Invalidation is above 2360. short term: Completely neutral inside given range. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Yeah just a weird day. Expanding triangle first and then another big sell against the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds