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GOLDM1! trade ideas

Will there be declines in gold prices coming?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click "FOLLOW" at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help. Will there be declines in gold prices coming? On Wednesday, gold steadied above $2,060 an ounce after a drop in the previous session. Investors are waiting for the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for clues on what monetary policy will be in the future. On Tuesday, the metal fell from intraday highs and closed down 0.2 percent. This was caused by a rebound in the dollar and Treasury yields. Market participants downgraded their expectations about the possibility of interest rate cuts by major central banks this year. Currently, there is a 70 percent probability that the U.S. central bank will make a quarter-point cut in March, up from the previous 90 percent. After adopting a neutral stance on gold in early November, I began to pay more attention to the downside when the metal failed to consolidate gains above the $2,000 mark. In fundamental terms, although the decline in real bond yields in recent months has created a favorable environment for gold, it still remains well above the levels associated with current real yields. Overall, risks are strongly tilted toward a further decline in gold prices in the coming months. Gold's chart pattern is extremely bearish after failing to maintain levels above $2,000. This false break is similar to the one observed in March 2022, which led to a 22 percent loss in the metal's value over the next 6 months. Currently, there is no significant support until the price falls to the $1,800 area, which corresponds to the October lows. The recent lack of gains above $2,000 is worrisome, especially considering that the futures and options markets show a positive stance for further increases. In fact, net non-trade positioning is at its most bullish level since April 2022, after rising sharply from the October lows. This could be seen as a contrarian signal to experienced investors. In a bearish technical environment, there is reason to be concerned about gold given that fundamentals point to a lower value than the current one. This estimate comes from the correlation between gold and 10-year inflation-indexed U.S. bond yields and between the gold-to-industrial-metal ratio and 10-year nominal bond yields. Although bond yields have declined in recent months, long-term inflation expectations and industrial metal prices are also declining. As a result, the fair value of gold has improved slightly but still remains significantly below its current value. It is theoretically possible that the fundamental situation will improve dramatically as the Fed cuts rates. However, the difficult fiscal situation in the United States strongly suggests a return to negative 10-year real yields, as the current positive 2 percent is unsustainable. This could mean very good news for gold, but markets are already anticipating aggressive rate cuts for 2024 and beyond. This indicates that any improvement in economic data or a rise in inflation could cause a slowdown in falling yields, severely hampering gold prices. According to my forecast, gold prices will reach $1,800 in the next quarter.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
Gold to $2057 overnight by 6:15am in the morning 1.04.24Gold should start its climb up to $2057 tonight . There should be on last push to 2048-49 then it should start its climb to $2057. Nothing really super technical here. It finished accumulation, then re-accumulation, made a control box, broke out. ran up. Dropped back to the zone to find support and resupply. Pushed a little deeper, and now setting up to break that high using the measurements it made doing everything I just said. Which points to the $2057 area and Im throwing in some timing to make it interesting.... I have a natural rhythm to the market and with that it should finish before 6:15am. just a zone break, followed by a pull back to support and then a launch for profits.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by iCantw84it
🏦37 Reasons To Buy Gold During Inflation📈🌐1. Hedge Against Inflation: Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation as its value tends to rise when the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines. 2. Store of Value: Gold has been a reliable store of value throughout history, preserving wealth across generations. 3. Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies, the supply of gold is limited. This scarcity can contribute to its value during periods of inflation. 4. Diversification: Including gold in an investment portfolio can add diversification, reducing overall risk. 5. Global Acceptance: Gold is accepted worldwide as a form of currency, providing liquidity and ease of trade. 6. Central Bank Reserves: Many central banks hold gold reserves as part of their monetary policy, indicating its importance in times of economic uncertainty. 7. Geopolitical Stability: Gold is seen as a safe haven during geopolitical turmoil, making it attractive when inflationary pressures are coupled with global uncertainties. 8. Negative Real Interest Rates: Gold tends to perform well when real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are low or negative. 9. Portfolio Insurance: Gold can act as insurance in case of economic downturns or financial crises, providing a cushion for investment portfolios. 10. Long-Term Value: Investors often turn to gold for its long-term value and stability, especially during periods of economic turbulence. 11. Tangible Asset: Gold is a tangible asset, offering a level of security that digital or paper assets may lack. 12. No Counterparty Risk: Unlike stocks or bonds, owning physical gold involves no counterparty risk, as it doesn't rely on the performance of a third party. 13. Historical Track Record: Gold has maintained its value over centuries, making it a reliable asset with a proven track record. 14. Supply and Demand Dynamics: If inflation drives up the cost of goods and services, the demand for gold may increase, contributing to its price appreciation. 15. Gold as Currency: In times of inflation, when the value of paper currency diminishes, gold retains its status as a reliable currency. 16. Portable Wealth: Gold is easily transportable and can be stored in a small space, allowing for the easy movement of wealth. 17. Jewelry Demand: The demand for gold in jewelry can contribute to its value, especially in cultures where gold holds cultural or social significance. 18. Mining Costs: Higher inflation may lead to increased mining costs, impacting the supply side of gold and potentially driving prices higher. 19. Industrial Demand: Gold is used in various industries, and increased industrial demand during periods of inflation can support its price. 20. Gold ETFs: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold offer a convenient way to gain exposure to gold prices. 21. Technical Analysis: Traders often use technical analysis to identify trends in gold prices during inflationary periods. 22. Psychological Impact: Perception plays a significant role in market dynamics, and the perception of gold as a safe-haven asset can drive demand during inflation. 23. Government Debt Concerns: High levels of government debt can lead to inflation fears, prompting investors to seek assets like gold for protection. 24. Currency Devaluation: Inflation often accompanies currency devaluation, making gold more attractive as a stable alternative. 25. Real Assets Outperformance: Historically, real assets like gold have outperformed financial assets during inflationary periods. 26. Gold Mining Stocks: Investing in gold mining stocks can provide exposure to gold prices with the potential for additional returns. 27. Crisis-Driven Demand: During economic crises, there is often an increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. 28. Monetary Policy Impact: Changes in monetary policy, such as low-interest rates and quantitative easing, can influence gold prices during inflation. 29. Central Bank Purchases: Central banks may increase their gold reserves as a response to inflationary pressures. 30. Cultural Significance: In many cultures, gold is considered a symbol of wealth and prosperity, driving demand during economic uncertainties. 31. Financial System Instability: Concerns about the stability of the financial system can drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. 32. Gold's Unique Properties: Gold is corrosion-resistant, non-reactive, and has unique conductivity properties, making it valuable in various industries. 33. Fear of Currency Collapse: In extreme cases, when there's fear of a currency collapse, investors may flock to gold as a reliable alternative. 34. Gold's Inherent Beauty: Beyond its financial properties, gold's aesthetic appeal can contribute to its demand, especially in the form of jewelry. 35. Long-Term Storage of Wealth: Gold has historically served as a reliable long-term storage of wealth, maintaining value over extended periods. 36. Steady Demand in Asia: Asian countries, particularly India and China, have a strong cultural affinity for gold, contributing to consistent demand. 37. Global Economic Uncertainty: Periods of global economic uncertainty often coincide with inflation, making gold an attractive option for investors seeking stability. **Disclaimer:** The information provided above is for educational and informational purposes only. -- It does not constitute financial advice, and trading always involves -- a risk of substantial losses, regardless of the margin levels -- used. Before engaging in any trading activities, it is crucial to -- conduct thorough research, consider your financial situation, -- and, if necessary, consult with a qualified financial advisor. Past -- performance is not indicative of future results, and market -- conditions can change rapidly. Trading decisions should be made -- based on careful analysis and consideration of individual -- circumstances. The user is solely responsible for any decisions made -- and should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading in -- financial markets.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
New Year's Eve GC 'Short Bias Narrative' -ManagementCOMEX:GC1! Reasons for me to go Short IF & ONCE price can provide the following...... 1) Price is currently trading right above the Daily Swing EQ Price Level '$2070.0' 2) Price is midway through a 4Hr Demand Zone. Current price is ($2071.8) *The Price levels of the 4Hr Demand Zone are ($2075.5 to $2065.50) Current price is $2071.8 3) Price is trading right above the 4Hr ER-LQ trend. Now this is what I am lookin for to go SHORT..... 1) Price has to break and close below the Daily Swing EQ Level 2)Price has to break this 4Hr Demand Zone and close below on both the (15&30m candles). (Indicating strong sellers) 3)Price has to Break this ER-LQ trend and close underneath (15&30m candles) If we can get this PA then I'll be interested in scaling SHORT..... Just my opinion! Yu feeling it or naw....? OH I forgot, and PA has be under RED V-Wap!!!!! Shalom+ #BHM500K
COMEX:GC1!Short
by TreyHighPwr
1
📊 Gold Headed Towards $1,855 | Multiple Signals, Short-Term TF➖ 3-Dec Gold Futures (GC1!) produced a session with a long upper wick. The session closed green but was immediately followed by multiple red high volume candles, producing a bearish pattern. ➖ 28-Dec Gold Futures (GC1!) moves below EMA10 on the 4H timeframe, confirming a lower high compared to 3-Dec. While this is happening, trading volume continues to decrease. The RSI entered the bearish zone. All these are bearish signals. When combined, they work to denote a strong potential for additional bearish action. For these signals and chart setup to be negated and be considered bullish, a break above $2,152 (last high) of multiple candles would need to happen. If there is a move to the upside that fails to reach or break this major high point, it would strengthen the bearish potential. Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency) & Gold have been correlated positively for a long while now. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by AlanSantana
2
Metal Commodities Year End ReviewCOMEX: Micro Gold ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Copper ( COMEX:HG1! ), Aluminum ( COMEX:ALI1! ) 2023 is coming to an end. What are some of the biggest headlines of the year? • China’s ending of Zero-Covid gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand, but it was short-lived; • U.S. regional bank crisis triggered a flight to safety; • U.S. debt ceiling crisis escalated but was resolved at the eleventh hour; • The runaway inflation was contained as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates eleven times; • House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted in a history making vote; • The Israel-Hamas conflict broke out in October, and geopolitical risk intensified as shipping routes in the Red Sea were under attack by the Houthi militia; • U.S. reins in Cryptos with public trials and huge fines rendered to two large Exchanges; • Fed cut became the new market narrative, which pushes equities to record high. These events have significant impacts on commodities. Today, I will give a high-level review of metal commodities’ performance in 2023, and what lies ahead in 2024. Energy and Agricultural commodities will be covered in my subsequent writings. A Good Year for Precious Metals As of December 27th, Gold futures are up 13.2% year-to-date to $2,091 per troy ounce. The benchmark precious metal reclaims its status as the preferred safe-haven asset. • The collapses of three regional banks in March posted a potential systemic risk in the US banking system. Gold gained 13% within a month as investors bought bullion and dumped dollar-denominated assets. • Gold pulled back by 7% following the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis in early June, and the US government avoided a default of sovereignty debt. • Since the Gaza War broke out, gold gained 9% as the geopolitical crisis escalated. • Gold rises as the Fed cut narrative takes hold and investors are increasingly bullish. On December 3rd, spot gold reached an all-time high of $2,146. 2024 Outlook for Gold: Lowering interest rates is bullish for gold, as the opportunity cost to hold the non-yielding bullion would be lower, comparing to interest bearing instruments. With two ongoing regional wars, geopolitical tension is expected to remain high in the new year. This is also positive for safe-haven assets like gold. The December 19th CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that “Managed Money” has 155,697 long positions and 47,421 short positions. The 108K net long positions indicate that speculative traders are very bullish on gold. Trade Ideas: Buying gold in the dip may be a good strategy in 2024. For example, a pullback could happen if the Fed issues a hawkish statement, or monthly inflation rate rebounds, or a cease-fire achieved in either the Middle East or Ukraine. The February contract (MGCG4) of COMEX Micro Gold Futures is quoted at 2091.6 on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $20,916 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $830 in initial margin. Hypothetically, if gold futures bounds back to its all-time high $ 2,146, a long position would gain 54 points and $540 per contract (= 54 x $10). This would represent a theoretical return of 65% (= 540/830) excluding transaction fees. On the other hand, if gold price pulls back, the long position would lose $10 for each $1 of gold price decline per ounce. Copper Under Pressure by Gloomy Economic Outlook As of December 27th, copper futures are up 4.9% year-to-date to $3.98 per pound. The expected change in the balance of supply and demand drives copper price trend. • In November 2022, China ended a 3-year-long Zero-Covid policy. It gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand. Copper rose from $3.60 to $4.20, up 16% within two months. • China’s economic recovery lost steam after just one quarter. Copper prices have been trending down most of the year and touched a 52-week low of $3.55 in October. • Recent data shows the U.S. economy to be resilient, employment market strong and inflation trending down. Adding in the aggressive rate cut expectations, copper rebounded 12% to $3.98. 2024 Outlook for Copper: Below is the projected balance of supply and demand for copper, according to data from International Copper Study Group (ICSG). • 2024: supply 27.8 million tons (mt), demand 27.5mt; excess supply is 300,000 tons. • 2025: supply 28.6mt, demand 28.4mt; excess supply is 170,000 tons. As an industrial commodity, copper supply tends to be relatively stable and easy to forecast. However, its demand could vary substantially as business cycle rotates from boom to bust. The March contract (HGH4) of COMEX Copper Futures is quoted at $3.954 per pound on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 25,000 pounds, or $98,850 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $4,500 in initial margin. The recent COT report shows that Managed Money has 60,873 long positions and 45,806 short positions. The net long positions are small, not a good signal on trader intention. While investors expect a soft landing for the US economy, whether the global economy could avoid a recession remains to be seen. Geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty. I would wait for more data on copper demand before forming a trading strategy. Aluminum Taking a Hit as Demand Weakened As of December 27th, aluminum futures are up 0.4% year-to-date to $2,335 per ton. Like copper, the balance of supply and demand drives aluminum price trend. • China’s ending of Zero-Covid pushed aluminum prices up $400 within a month. • Aluminum prices have since declined and touched a 52-week low of $2,072 in August. • With good economic data and rate cut expectations, aluminum rebounded 13%. 2024 Outlook for Aluminum: The forecasted balance of supply and demand for aluminum by SMM: • 2023: supply 49.9mt, demand 50.0mt, supply shortage is 93,000 tons. • 2024: supply 51.1mt, demand 51.1mt, supply shortage is 50,000 tons. Current forecast estimates that aluminum is near supply and demand balance in 2024. The March contract (ALIH4) of COMEX Aluminum Futures is quoted at $2,375.5 per ton on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 25 tons, or $59,387.5 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $2,000 in initial margin. The recent COT report shows that Managed Money has 451 longs and 1,201 shorts. The net short positions indicate that speculative traders are bearish on aluminum. I would wait for more data on aluminum demand before forming a trading strategy. To sum up , I am bullish on gold with an outlook for lower interest rates and heightened geopolitical risks. For copper and aluminum, demand outlook is uncertain depending on whether a global economic recession could be avoided. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
GOLD next 2 years analysis ⏰ macro Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨ This idea 💡 is completely my own analysis on GOLD TVC:XAU 🪙 How this comodity valid for long term 📌 explained as per technical clearly 📌 #DYOR Note 👉 I am analyst and trader on cryptocurrency BITSTAMP:BTCUSD & stocks I don't know about comodity market much , but my friend asked to do analysis 📌 based technical analysis ⏰ so I am providing here 🙂 :: in cryptocurrency to analyse any coin we check ✅ volatility , fundamental and some points In GOLD i Don't know what to check and how follow and depth fundamental also so PPL 📌 who knows well ❤️‍🩹 keep in comments box 📍 i learn and i improve my work on commodity market Present i am submitting technical analysis #TA based on my view 👀 I am bearish 📍 🐻 in next 1yr and expecting new high 2025 end 📌 2026 mid year Invalid 📌 When weekend close below $1600 Best area to fill bag 💰 BUY 📌 $1680 - $1780 is best accumulate zone 📌 ( 1680/1780 ) My target 🎯 was $2200 - $2400 🔥 1680/1780 >> 2200/2400 || stop 🛑 weekend below 1600 👍 This is what I am expecting on GOLD based on technical analysis 📌 what point i have considere as per fundamental and what news 🗞️ I have to cover pls let me know 🙂 🪩 disclaimer : ▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌 Note 👀 👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌 We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important Economical conditions Fundamentals Technical News Sentiments Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️ Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛 I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important Have good day 😊 🧵👉
COMEX:GC1!Long
by raj5_7_5