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GOLDM1! trade ideas

Metal Commodities Year End ReviewCOMEX: Micro Gold ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Copper ( COMEX:HG1! ), Aluminum ( COMEX:ALI1! ) 2023 is coming to an end. What are some of the biggest headlines of the year? • China’s ending of Zero-Covid gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand, but it was short-lived; • U.S. regional bank crisis triggered a flight to safety; • U.S. debt ceiling crisis escalated but was resolved at the eleventh hour; • The runaway inflation was contained as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates eleven times; • House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted in a history making vote; • The Israel-Hamas conflict broke out in October, and geopolitical risk intensified as shipping routes in the Red Sea were under attack by the Houthi militia; • U.S. reins in Cryptos with public trials and huge fines rendered to two large Exchanges; • Fed cut became the new market narrative, which pushes equities to record high. These events have significant impacts on commodities. Today, I will give a high-level review of metal commodities’ performance in 2023, and what lies ahead in 2024. Energy and Agricultural commodities will be covered in my subsequent writings. A Good Year for Precious Metals As of December 27th, Gold futures are up 13.2% year-to-date to $2,091 per troy ounce. The benchmark precious metal reclaims its status as the preferred safe-haven asset. • The collapses of three regional banks in March posted a potential systemic risk in the US banking system. Gold gained 13% within a month as investors bought bullion and dumped dollar-denominated assets. • Gold pulled back by 7% following the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis in early June, and the US government avoided a default of sovereignty debt. • Since the Gaza War broke out, gold gained 9% as the geopolitical crisis escalated. • Gold rises as the Fed cut narrative takes hold and investors are increasingly bullish. On December 3rd, spot gold reached an all-time high of $2,146. 2024 Outlook for Gold: Lowering interest rates is bullish for gold, as the opportunity cost to hold the non-yielding bullion would be lower, comparing to interest bearing instruments. With two ongoing regional wars, geopolitical tension is expected to remain high in the new year. This is also positive for safe-haven assets like gold. The December 19th CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that “Managed Money” has 155,697 long positions and 47,421 short positions. The 108K net long positions indicate that speculative traders are very bullish on gold. Trade Ideas: Buying gold in the dip may be a good strategy in 2024. For example, a pullback could happen if the Fed issues a hawkish statement, or monthly inflation rate rebounds, or a cease-fire achieved in either the Middle East or Ukraine. The February contract (MGCG4) of COMEX Micro Gold Futures is quoted at 2091.6 on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $20,916 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $830 in initial margin. Hypothetically, if gold futures bounds back to its all-time high $ 2,146, a long position would gain 54 points and $540 per contract (= 54 x $10). This would represent a theoretical return of 65% (= 540/830) excluding transaction fees. On the other hand, if gold price pulls back, the long position would lose $10 for each $1 of gold price decline per ounce. Copper Under Pressure by Gloomy Economic Outlook As of December 27th, copper futures are up 4.9% year-to-date to $3.98 per pound. The expected change in the balance of supply and demand drives copper price trend. • In November 2022, China ended a 3-year-long Zero-Covid policy. It gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand. Copper rose from $3.60 to $4.20, up 16% within two months. • China’s economic recovery lost steam after just one quarter. Copper prices have been trending down most of the year and touched a 52-week low of $3.55 in October. • Recent data shows the U.S. economy to be resilient, employment market strong and inflation trending down. Adding in the aggressive rate cut expectations, copper rebounded 12% to $3.98. 2024 Outlook for Copper: Below is the projected balance of supply and demand for copper, according to data from International Copper Study Group (ICSG). • 2024: supply 27.8 million tons (mt), demand 27.5mt; excess supply is 300,000 tons. • 2025: supply 28.6mt, demand 28.4mt; excess supply is 170,000 tons. As an industrial commodity, copper supply tends to be relatively stable and easy to forecast. However, its demand could vary substantially as business cycle rotates from boom to bust. The March contract (HGH4) of COMEX Copper Futures is quoted at $3.954 per pound on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 25,000 pounds, or $98,850 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $4,500 in initial margin. The recent COT report shows that Managed Money has 60,873 long positions and 45,806 short positions. The net long positions are small, not a good signal on trader intention. While investors expect a soft landing for the US economy, whether the global economy could avoid a recession remains to be seen. Geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty. I would wait for more data on copper demand before forming a trading strategy. Aluminum Taking a Hit as Demand Weakened As of December 27th, aluminum futures are up 0.4% year-to-date to $2,335 per ton. Like copper, the balance of supply and demand drives aluminum price trend. • China’s ending of Zero-Covid pushed aluminum prices up $400 within a month. • Aluminum prices have since declined and touched a 52-week low of $2,072 in August. • With good economic data and rate cut expectations, aluminum rebounded 13%. 2024 Outlook for Aluminum: The forecasted balance of supply and demand for aluminum by SMM: • 2023: supply 49.9mt, demand 50.0mt, supply shortage is 93,000 tons. • 2024: supply 51.1mt, demand 51.1mt, supply shortage is 50,000 tons. Current forecast estimates that aluminum is near supply and demand balance in 2024. The March contract (ALIH4) of COMEX Aluminum Futures is quoted at $2,375.5 per ton on Wednesday. Each contract has a notional value of 25 tons, or $59,387.5 at current price. To buy 1 contract, investors are required to deposit $2,000 in initial margin. The recent COT report shows that Managed Money has 451 longs and 1,201 shorts. The net short positions indicate that speculative traders are bearish on aluminum. I would wait for more data on aluminum demand before forming a trading strategy. To sum up , I am bullish on gold with an outlook for lower interest rates and heightened geopolitical risks. For copper and aluminum, demand outlook is uncertain depending on whether a global economic recession could be avoided. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
GOLD next 2 years analysis ⏰ macro Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨ This idea 💡 is completely my own analysis on GOLD TVC:XAU 🪙 How this comodity valid for long term 📌 explained as per technical clearly 📌 #DYOR Note 👉 I am analyst and trader on cryptocurrency BITSTAMP:BTCUSD & stocks I don't know about comodity market much , but my friend asked to do analysis 📌 based technical analysis ⏰ so I am providing here 🙂 :: in cryptocurrency to analyse any coin we check ✅ volatility , fundamental and some points In GOLD i Don't know what to check and how follow and depth fundamental also so PPL 📌 who knows well ❤️‍🩹 keep in comments box 📍 i learn and i improve my work on commodity market Present i am submitting technical analysis #TA based on my view 👀 I am bearish 📍 🐻 in next 1yr and expecting new high 2025 end 📌 2026 mid year Invalid 📌 When weekend close below $1600 Best area to fill bag 💰 BUY 📌 $1680 - $1780 is best accumulate zone 📌 ( 1680/1780 ) My target 🎯 was $2200 - $2400 🔥 1680/1780 >> 2200/2400 || stop 🛑 weekend below 1600 👍 This is what I am expecting on GOLD based on technical analysis 📌 what point i have considere as per fundamental and what news 🗞️ I have to cover pls let me know 🙂 🪩 disclaimer : ▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌 Note 👀 👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌 We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important Economical conditions Fundamentals Technical News Sentiments Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️ Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛 I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important Have good day 😊 🧵👉
COMEX:GC1!Long
by raj5_7_5
Gold is about to skyrocket according to EWTI am beginning to post on my updated/new coverage list. The first of which will be gold futures. As you may notice, this is the monthly chart. In my last Rivian post I mentioned that I start at the VERY beginning of the chart or as far back as TV has data. I wasn't blowing smoke as I believe this is the only way to ensure you don't get off in the count. Looking at the chart, you can tell I am counting this as an impulsive structure and we're in one of the most explosive parts of the long-term count. Looking at the economy, it's obvious it is going to do horribly next year. Anyone who says different is kidding themselves. This recession the fed has been trying to put off, IMHO, is about to rear its very ugly head. This doesn't mean every single stock is going to crash. Every chart stands on their own and should be looked at separately without bias or you WILL be wrong at some point. Normally when the economy is doing bad people flock to precious metals such as gold. This fares well with my outlook on the economy and the count I have applied to this chart. If the economy does tank, then I bet gold skyrockets hitting my next target box. I know it is a huge box, but zooming all the way out to the monthly time frame shows us data from 1975 until today. That's almost 50 years' worth of structure/data. I mean the cycle wave I took over 4 years to complete and grew by 773% ending at the 4.236 fib! Thats some insane extensions!! I plan on slowly rolling out this coverage list and will post a weekly and/or daily chart next, followed by the 4HR & 1HR charts, if not this week, then I will next week. With the holidays coming, I along with all of you, will be spending time with family and won't be as available. This zoomed out monthly view should give you all a better understanding on how to start these charts though, and also give a long-term multi-decade thesis on where price action will take us. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TSuth
6
Gold: Bearish Dominance 🐻The bears are currently not giving up control of the gold price and have caused strong sell-offs. Nevertheless, we primarily see this as part of the substructure of the turquoise wave B and expect the rally to continue soon. However, for this scenario to remain in tact, the reversal must take place above the support at $1935. Should this level be broken, the alternative with a probability of 40% would come into play, which sees the price already in a descent.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by MarketIntel
Bitcoin12.12.23 Bitcoin came to a reversal area Using the tools that we use. Yesterday it corrected a little bit lower and I was looking at it to see if I could be a buyer or a seller. I have to decide if this is the beginning of a move that will go lower or if yesterday was just some profit taking and today the market will be moving higher. Every time I look for a trade location, Whether I am actually in a trade or about to take a trade... I spend a lot of time trying to decide the probability that the market will move in the direction that fits my trade. I do want a trade that has good rage to it if it is moving in my direction but first and foremost, in addition to having a small stop... I want the market to move in the direction of my entry price. this is an important issue for me. Near the end of the video I brought out the Gold chart which is probably going higher today. The previous day I thought the probability was that the market would move lower and it did but not as much as I thought it would... but it moved about $2,000 lower. When I was thinking through that trade on the video I had the belief that I'd be able to buy that market once it goes a little bit lower. On the day that I thought the market was going lower it went lower by $3,000... the opening price today looks like it's going to go higher from yesterday's close. If you're not used to trading these markets and you're not careful on your trade location and determining the direction.... you can get hurt. Ask yourself what you would do if you had two $3,000 trades....But you were on the wrong side of the market and you ended up losing four or $5,000 on those two trades. Every decision has a consequence. My decision never rests on volume, or a crossing moving average, or any oscillator,,, but that means I have to think about it.... and as we all know, Sometimes the decisions are easier to make. It's probably best to wait for that time well there will be clarity... and you will know what that is after you work with it for a while. Keep the losses small, Trade less and if you're a buyer know where the sellers are, and if you are a seller know where the buyers are. oscillators don't tell you that.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Gold short12.11.23 I was looking at the gold chart tonight and it's about 2:00 am in the morning and it looks like gold is going lower. So I try to analyze it as a buyer and a seller to determine what my target should be and what my stops should be. It's a little bit of a pain in the neck and that's because this is a contracted market and they're very difficult to trade. on the other hand buyers do not control this market... henceforth the video was probably 5 to 10 minutes longer than it needed to be... and yet I think it'll probably trade lower. The importance of noticing contraction of a market... and non-volatile price action is that you can pin the problem on the market because contracted markets are always tougher to trade... unless you take a trade and then this might be your problem. volatile markets are easier to trade the non-volatable markets. If you believe differently, you might want to rethink that.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin