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NATURALGAS1! trade ideas

Bobby's Homework Assignment5.20.23 This is a very good video to look at..... we are looking at natural Gas Which should be fairly easy to trade if you knew how to use the tools that we look at. This is a market you should plot out on your own software... and make sure you understand the thinking around this. Unfortunately, there are a couple minor slips of the tongue which goes along with the territory when I produce Videos, but you should know what they are and how to compensate.
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!
by ScottBogatin
NG - Freedom from FearLately, natural gas has gone up in value a bit despite declining in value almost continuously for the past six months. This has people wondering whether or not there is further upside. It is important to remember that most of the natural gas volume is from institutional traders of whatever type, but retail does have a part in the market as well. As soon as a few months ago, things were different from the retail trader/investor point of view. People were much more eager to go long on natural gas because of how far it had fallen. It certainly looked as if it was ripe for a harsh oversold bounce. However, in late Feb-early March, the only bounce that ever happened at all was preceded by a steep drop and ended with a weekend bull trap, which was not exactly the easiest move to take advantage of. This was followed by a slower decline that ate away at ETF values in particular. Not only that, but contract contango has made it difficult to go long on natural gas. Since then, it has consolidated in some sort of roughly defined range only to sharply rise in the past week. My theory is that anyone who actually dared to go long on natural gas, particularly during the Jan-Feb era where it still had room to fall, got to see firsthand how natural gas refused to bounce. The retail sentiment is now much more hopeless and focused on taking whatever profit there is. Memories of the weekend trap in March have now contributed to retail taking money off the table instead. They are now afraid to go long because of how sad the price action has been. It doesn't look like anyone truly believes there will be a real bounce (like they did a few months ago) The actual point A lot of that was mostly just anecdotal evidence and focus on retail traders, who are just a tiny portion of the market. The reason to not go long here is, at its core, fear of natural gas just going down as it has done very consistently for the past six months. It is probably at least a somewhat good idea to not pay attention to that fear and instead trade based on technicals and fundamental stuff. The fact is that there has not been a real Fibonacci retracement since December. As you can see on the chart, even the Feb-March bounce did not reach even the lowest target. This is not just something that happens! The most recent & comparable example I could find is from July '08 to Sept '09, where natural gas did manage to decline about 82% without ever hitting a Fibonacci target. You can somewhat justify this move by saying that it basically had gone up in a straight line in the first half of 2008. The end result, though, was that it literally doubled in value (from $2.5) in the span of a month. Even the 2022 market was different from 2008. In 2008, it had essentially been straight up then straight down. 2022's market was much more choppy and even set a late June low at $5.5, far below the $8 to $9 peaks it had set. It then consolidated for four months near the $6 mark. For anything that doesn't go bankrupt, or anything where the fundamentals are truly, completely changed, there will basically always be some sort of bounce or rebalancing that takes place after a big move. It might take some time, but that is just how it is in the markets. We have not had this bounce. Right now, there is a lot of fear to go around and it seems like no one believes that natural gas will actually reach any sort of high point again. Maybe natural gas will, in fact, go lower, but the upside afterwards only grows the longer it is put off.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by roxythetradermage
5
May 18,23-NG-Finally Up Up and away?Did anyone put in a Buy Order at 2? or 2.1? You can finally see two weeks in a row of Bullish price movement!! Finally! You can also see price actually passed the green Alligator line which is a bullish sign - just hoping it closes tomorrow ABOVE this line. Then hopfully al good next week. But who knows - next week is next week. AnyHOOO Hope all is well with everyone - sorry for a lack of posts recently but there has been nothing but sideways action, until now. Stay safe !! Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
19
Is there a chance the price of natural gas will hit $4?If you want to be notified every time I post a new article, just click 'FOLLOW' above. Also, if you want to learn more about a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I'll be happy to help. Global gas markets are slowly rebalancing, but Russian gas supplies to Europe are expected to remain limited until 2023. In 2022, European and global gas markets faced a sharp reduction in gas supplies after Russia cut its supplies through European Union pipelines by 80%. This has led to the emergence of a global energy crisis. Thanks to the pleasant climate, the increase in the export of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and the drastic decrease in the demand for gas, European stocks are filled to around 60%. This helped cushion the shock of the pandemic. The IEA indicated in a report on the gas market that diminishing market concerns coupled with current reserves are grounds for cautious confidence about security of supply. This gives an indication that there will be sufficient gas supply during the summer. 'While forecasts for gas markets in 2023 are encouraging, future volatility cannot be totally ruled out...global gas supply will remain quite tight by 2023 and the global balance is subject to a surprisingly large variety of possible scenarios. According to the report. There are many risks, such as unfavorable weather conditions which can lead to a shortage of LNG and the possibility of a decrease in Russian supplies to Europe. All this could renew tensions on the markets and increase price volatility. Europe has seen an unprecedented drop in gas consumption of 16%, or 55 billion cubic meters (bcm), during the 2022/23 heating season. This is good news that shows that Europe is becoming more attentive to sustainability. The study results show that the EU only needs half the level of storage injection recorded in the summer of 2022 to meet the 90% storage target by the start of the 2023/24 heating season. Liquid natural gas (LNG) now makes up two-thirds of the European Union's gas imports, meeting one-third of its gas demand during the 2022/23 heating season. A 25% increase was observed, amounting to around 20 bcm for European LNG imports, while more than 45% of the additional supply comes from the United States. Global supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is projected to increase by just 4% by 2023, which is less than the expected reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe, so the outlook is not as bad as it seems from appearances. At the moment, I am checking inventory levels on a weekly basis to evaluate whether to buy gas. Gas supply is currently plentiful due to current record production. With a summer of drought and extreme temperatures expected, we could see inventories shrink due to higher cooling demand. The first heat waves will probably arrive in June, and that's when I plan to buy natural gas for the summer. My calculations indicate that gas prices could be $4 in the third part of the year if the predicted extreme heat occurs. Author's note: The information and content provided on this site should not be considered as an invitation to invest in the financial markets. The Content is a personal opinion of Dr. Antonio Ferlito.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
NG1! Is Going Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for NG1!? Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 2.279. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 2.146 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by SignalProvider
11
Natural Gas: Has it Found a Bottom?Natural gas made a stunning rally to an all-time high, only to come crashing back down again. It's been a while since we last covered natural gas, so let's take a look at what's happened since then. The previous technical & seasonality setup played out perfectly with the RSI bouncing off the low and the rally into the winter season, hitting our profit target and extending further. This time, we're seeing a similar setup on a different timescale. Zooming out, natural gas has retraced the entire move it made in the past three years and is now back to pre-COVID levels. The question is, has natural gas found a bottom here? Looking at the weekly chart for natural gas over the past 20 years, we see an interesting picture. The weekly RSI has only broken past the 30 level five times over this two-decade period, and each time marked the rough bottom for natural gas. Fortunately, we're seeing this exact setup now, with prices seeming to find resistance at the $2 handle, which has also proven to be a reliable resistance level. Comparing the Henry Hub natural gas against the Dutch TTF natural gas, we can see the spread back to the lows when adjusting for the same unit measurement of MMBtu and in USD. On the fundamental side, this excerpt from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) sums up the outlook for Natural Gas vs Coal: “Natural gas-fired generation capacity in the United States has grown in recent years, although coal-fired generation has continued to decline. Lower coal-fired generation is due to a long-term trend of coal power plant retirements and increased competition with natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants when natural gas prices are low. A total of 11.5 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal-fired electricity generating capacity retired in 2022. No new coal-fired capacity has come online since 2013, and developers have not reported any plans to build new U.S. coal-fired capacity in the future. In contrast, nearly 6.1 GW of natural gas-fired capacity was added in 2022, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.” Natural Gas saw a record high for the winter heating season. Additionally, close to 23% of US coal plants have plans to retire by 2029, and the last new coal plant that came online in the US was in 2013, 10 years ago. With coal plants being the second-largest source of electricity in the US and supply being cut, energy has to come from somewhere else. While the push for renewable energy continues, natural gas remains the main source of energy production. The dissipation of supply from retiring coal plants will likely be filled by natural gas. The reason being? Natural Gas currently remains most reliable form of energy source, while nuclear faces political pushbacks and Wind, Hydro & Solar have unpredictable/intermittent generation capacity. Lastly, the Dollar sits on a key level now. If broken, the weakening dollar could drive commodities prices higher en masse. All in all, the case to long natural gas from here seems reasonable, with the fundamental outlook for Natural gas still positive and the technical set-up pointing to a low. Taking a long position at the current levels of 2.186 and setting our stops at 1.85 and our first take profit level at 3.1 gives us a reasonable halfway point while setting our next take profit level at 3.8 gives us a higher profit potential if prices continue to rise. CME’s Henry Hub Natural gas is quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per MMBtu. Each 0.001 increment equal to 10$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.eia.gov www.eia.gov blogs.worldbank.org
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by inspirante
4
Natgas: More pressure! 💪You know this one? Pascal: “Hurry up! Get a move on! We really need to get going!” - “Whoa, that’s a lot of pressure for just one Pascal…!” Okay okay, bad jokes aside, Natgas does need a bit more pressure to rise from the compound consisting of the white zone between $1.880 and $3.436, the blue zone between $2.407 and $3.277 and the pink zone between $2.573 and $3.439. Above this conglomerate, it should finish wave iv in pink before turning downwards to develop wave 2 in green, which should then lead below the bottom of the white zone. Once this prominent low is established, Natgas should take off again. However, there is a 40% chance that Natgas could leave the white zone on the southern side, thus expanding wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel